The sky remains open, but global tourism has received a serious warning
The latest escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has once again shown how sensitive global tourism is to geopolitical shocks, even when borders are not formally closed and most airports continue to operate. Aircraft are still flying, passengers are still travelling, and tourism companies and destinations are still selling holidays, but the way people travel in the spring of 2026 is no longer the same as it was a few weeks ago. The impact is not only security-related, but also logistical, financial and psychological: air corridors that for decades connected Europe, Asia, the Gulf and parts of Africa have become unstable, part of the airspace has been closed or placed under strict restrictions, and airlines are being forced onto longer and more expensive detour routes. In such an environment, even destinations that are far from the battlefields themselves are feeling the consequences, from changes in travel habits to rising transport prices and uncertainty around seasonal bookings. This is, in fact, the central message of this crisis: global tourism today depends not only on the beauty of a destination and demand, but also on the stability of the transport corridors that connect it with the world.
According to estimates by the World Travel & Tourism Council, the travel and tourism sector in the Middle East is already losing at least 600 million US dollars per day in international visitor spending due to disruptions in air traffic, weakening traveller confidence and damaged regional connectivity. That figure does not speak only about the region affected by war, but about the wider system in which several major hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Bahrain play a crucial role in layovers on intercontinental routes. WTTC states that, under normal circumstances, these hubs together handle around 526 thousand passengers a day. When such a system begins to falter, it is not only travel to the Gulf that slows down, but also a whole series of links between Europe and Asia, Africa and Australia, as well as towards popular island and long-haul tourist destinations that depend on one or two major hubs for the arrival of guests.
The air corridor crisis is changing the map of global travel
Safety guidelines and warnings for civil aviation have become much stricter in recent weeks. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency already recommended on 28 February 2026 that operators avoid the airspace of a number of states, including Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Saudi Arabia, with limited exceptions for part of the southern routes. The Safe Airspace platform, which monitors risks for civil aviation, notes in March that Israeli and Iranian airspace are closed, that the central Gulf corridor is seriously disrupted, that Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are in practice outside normal transit traffic, and that traffic is being redirected towards southern routes via Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Oman or towards northern bypasses via the Caucasus and Central Asia. In other words, the world has not been left without air links, but it has been left without part of its shortest, most cost-effective and most predictable routes.
Such a change is immediately visible in the operational picture of the industry. Aviation Week warns that this is a disruption of one of the world's most important aviation corridors, with Gulf carriers whose business model rests on stable traffic through major transfer hubs being particularly affected. This does not mean that all routes have been shut down or that traffic has stopped, but it does mean that flight schedule planning, fleet management, fuel costs and flight times have overnight become far more complex. Every additional hour of flight for an airline means a higher fuel cost, greater pressure on crews, different aircraft rotations and less room to maintain punctuality. For the passenger, this ultimately means a more expensive ticket, a longer journey, more uncertainty around connections and fewer time options.
Why the blow to airlines is greater than it first appears
The headline figure of 53 billion dollars wiped from airlines refers to the market value of shares, not to direct operating losses from balance sheets, but even such an estimate clearly shows how sensitive investors are to disruption in global air traffic. According to business media reports citing a Financial Times calculation, the 20 largest publicly listed airlines have lost around 53 billion dollars in market capitalisation since the start of the latest escalation at the end of February. This is a signal that the market fears not only several cancelled flights, but a longer period of more expensive fuel, a higher risk premium, weaker profitability and a possible drop in demand in sensitive markets.
In such circumstances, the blow does not hit all carriers equally. Companies with a large share of domestic or regional routes can more easily absorb the shock than those that live from long intercontinental routes and transfer passengers. Gulf carriers, as well as companies that depend on the Europe–Asia corridor through the Middle East, are facing a double problem: they cannot use part of the most important airspace, while at the same time they are being hit by higher energy and insurance costs. The International Civil Aviation Organization has for years warned that operations above or near conflict zones carry risks that go beyond classic commercial calculations, from the possibility of the mistaken identification of a civil aircraft to sudden changes in the availability of airspace. In this crisis, that risk has once again moved from theory into the daily practice of commercial flying.
Tourism is not falling everywhere equally, but uncertainty is spreading very quickly
One of the more important mistakes in reading crises like this is the assumption that tourism damage will be limited only to the directly affected countries. Data and estimates suggest a different picture. In an analytical brief dated 12 March, UN Tourism states that, depending on how the situation develops and how long the disruption lasts, international arrivals in the Middle East region in 2026 could fall by 12 to 13 percent, which would mean 12 to 13 million fewer visitors and roughly one percent fewer global arrivals. Oxford Economics goes even further and estimates that arrivals in the region in 2026 could fall between 11 and 27 percent compared with the previous year, depending on the duration and intensity of the conflict. Such estimates are not a final balance sheet, but they show the basic logic of the market: as soon as one large area begins to be perceived as risky or logistically unpredictable, some travellers postpone trips, some choose alternative destinations, and some stick to their plans, but with higher costs and greater caution.
This spills over to destinations that are not formally in the crisis zone. The eastern Mediterranean, parts of North Africa, the Indian Ocean and destinations that rely on transfers in Doha, Dubai or Abu Dhabi suddenly find themselves in a new position. What matters is not only whether they are safe, but also whether they are easily accessible, whether stable connections exist, whether there are enough alternative routes and whether local tourism authorities can communicate quickly with the market. In modern tourism, the perception of accessibility is almost as important as the perception of safety. If a traveller thinks that reaching the destination will take ten or twelve hours longer, with a greater risk of delays and a more expensive ticket, part of demand will naturally go elsewhere.
Seychelles as an example of adaptation instead of passive waiting
That is precisely why the example of Seychelles is interesting, an island state that is not in the conflict zone, but is very much connected to the global rhythm of air traffic. Seychelles is a typical destination that depends on good international connectivity, stable transfer routes and the timely reaction of carriers. Tourism authorities were already emphasising, ahead of the 2025/2026 season, the importance of expanding the partner network. In September 2025, Tourism Seychelles announced that Turkish Airlines, Edelweiss and Condor were returning to the network, while Discover Airlines was introducing a new service, thereby increasing capacity and flexibility for the arrival of guests from Europe and via Istanbul. That strategy is important in normal circumstances because of market growth, but in crisis conditions it becomes a matter of resilience: the more entry points and carriers there are, the lower the risk that one blockade or one disruption will seriously cut the destination off from key source markets.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics Seychelles show that in week 11 of 2026, 5757 visitors arrived in the country, and from the beginning of the year 78,194, which is 0.4 percent less than in the same period of 2025. At first glance, that is not a dramatic decline, but it is a clear enough sign that even a relatively distant destination feels the disruption in the global travel system. More important than the figure itself is what it shows: the market has not yet collapsed, but it is sensitive, and the difference between a stable and a weaker season may depend on several weeks of properly managed air policy and communication towards travellers.
In that context, the decision by Air Seychelles to introduce three weekly direct flights between Mahé and Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport from 20 March 2026 is particularly important. According to the company's announcement, this is a move intended to strengthen connectivity with one of the most important European markets at a time when travel through part of the Middle East is hampered. This is an example of how a smaller destination can react proactively: instead of simply waiting for the normalisation of Gulf hubs, it is trying to open a more direct channel towards Europe. Such a decision in itself will not cancel out the global crisis, but it can mitigate the blow to seasonal arrivals, reduce dependence on one type of transfer and send the market a message that the destination is actively managing the crisis.
What this crisis says about the new vulnerability of tourism
The pandemic showed how much tourism depends on health and borders, and the latest conflict shows how much it depends on the geopolitics of air corridors. The international travel system has been built over recent decades on the assumption that the largest transit hubs will function without major interruptions and that the airspace between Europe, Asia and Africa will generally remain passable. When that assumption is no longer certain, the consequences are not measured only by the number of cancelled flights. The behaviour of travellers changes, as do the strategy of tour operators, fleet allocation, airline pricing policy, and even the marketing priorities of tourism boards.
WTTC also reminds us that tourism is among the most resilient sectors and that after security incidents, with clear communication and good coordination between authorities and industry, recovery can happen relatively quickly, in some cases even within two months. That is an important message, but it should not be read as a guarantee of a quick return to the old normal. Recovery is not automatic. It depends on whether the security situation really stabilises, whether the airspace will once again be opened in a predictable way, whether fuel prices will remain high, and whether travellers will believe that their routes are reliable again. In that sense, the crisis of March 2026 acts as a warning that tourism, even when it is not a direct target of conflict, is among the first sectors to feel political shock.
It is not only about the Middle East, but about the global model of connectivity
In the background of the whole story lies another important change: the world of travel has become so interconnected that a regional disruption very quickly becomes a global problem. If Iran and Israel are closed, if the Gulf corridor is restricted, if operators are avoiding additional states in the wider zone for safety reasons, then that is not only a local piece of news for travellers flying to Tel Aviv, Tehran or Doha. It is also news for the European tourist travelling to the Maldives, for the Asian business traveller flying to Africa, for the tour operator selling package holidays for the Indian Ocean, and for island economies that live from one good winter or spring season. Global tourism is thus entering a phase in which resilience no longer means only having quality hotels and a strong destination brand, but also an extensive transport network, alternative entry routes, crisis communication and the ability to adapt quickly.
Because of this, broader questions will open up even after this episode ends. Will airlines change their networks in the long term and reduce reliance on individual corridors? Will tourist destinations invest more in direct flights from key markets, even when they are more expensive? Will travellers become more sensitive to routes that pass near crisis zones and choose longer but more predictable connections? There are still no final answers to these questions, but it is already clear that world tourism is facing not only a temporary disruption, but also another lesson in its own structural vulnerability.
For Seychelles, as for a number of other destinations outside the immediate conflict zone, the lesson is quite clear: safety is no longer enough if there is no accessibility, and attractiveness is no longer enough if there is no reliable arrival. The sky, formally speaking, remains open. But the journey to many destinations has become longer, more expensive and more uncertain, and that is enough for the entire travel and tourism system to receive a serious wake-up call.
Sources:- World Travel & Tourism Council – estimate of the loss of international visitor spending and the role of Gulf hubs in global connectivity (link)
- Safe Airspace – overview of the status and restrictions of airspace in Middle Eastern states during March 2026 (link)
- ICAO – guidelines and framework for assessing the risks of civil flights above or near conflict zones (link)
- Aviation Week – analysis of disruptions in one of the world’s key aviation corridors and the effect on Gulf carriers (link)
- UN Tourism – analytical brief on the possible decline in international arrivals to the Middle East in 2026 (link)
- Oxford Economics – estimates of the possible decline in international arrivals in the region depending on the duration of the conflict (link)
- Tourism Seychelles – official announcement on the expansion of the airline network and strengthening accessibility for the 2025/2026 season (link)
- National Bureau of Statistics Seychelles – weekly and cumulative data on visitor arrivals in 2026 (link)
- Air Seychelles – announcement on the introduction of direct flights between Seychelles and Paris from 20 March 2026 (link)
- Moneycontrol – overview of the market reaction and the Financial Times calculation on the fall in the market capitalisation of the largest airlines (link)
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