Sinner's shock opened Roland Garros: Djokovic back in the race for a historic 25th Grand Slam
Jannik Sinner's exit in the second round of Roland Garros 2026 abruptly changed the order of favorites in the men's part of the tournament and again pushed Novak Djokovic into the center of the fight for the title in Paris. The Italian, the world No. 1 according to the ATP rankings and the tournament's top seed, lost on May 28 to Argentina's Juan Manuel Cerúndolo after one of the biggest comebacks of the current edition of the Paris Grand Slam. Sinner had a 2:0 lead in sets and 5:1 in the third set, but the match ended with Cerúndolo's victory 3:6, 2:6, 7:5, 6:1, 6:1, according to reports from the tournament and result data published by Roland Garros. Such an outcome was not only a sporting sensation, but also a moment that significantly changed the shape of the draw.
Sinner arrived in Paris as a clear favorite, with a winning streak and the status of a player who had set the pace for the rest of the ATP Tour during the spring. According to the official ATP rankings, before the continuation of the tournament he held first place ahead of Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Djokovic, while Juan Manuel Cerúndolo was the world's 56th-ranked player. It was precisely the difference in ranking that further amplified the sense of surprise, because Cerúndolo defeated the leading player in the world from a position in which the match practically looked decided. After Sinner's physical drop, the Argentine tennis player won the third set, and then completely took control in the fourth and fifth.
The comeback that changed tournament predictions
Sinner's defeat happened in circumstances in which the Paris heat became one of the main topics of the tournament. The British Guardian reported that players at Roland Garros were competing in very demanding conditions during those days, with temperatures in the afternoon moving around 32 to 35 degrees Celsius. According to the same source, Sinner spoke after the match about not feeling well, while other players also warned that the conditions strongly affect physical endurance. Although the heat does not diminish Cerúndolo's victory, it explains the broader context of a match in which the top seed went from an almost certain victory to elimination.
The details of the match itself show how sudden the turnaround was. Sinner won the first two sets convincingly, controlled the rhythm of the rallies and led 5:1 in the third set. At that moment, the Argentine player had not only a score deficit, but also the psychological burden of playing against the best player in the world on the biggest clay-court stage. However, after Sinner's drop in movement and energy, Cerúndolo began winning longer rallies, breaking back service games and gradually turning the match into a physical battle. When the third set ended with his comeback to 7:5, the dynamic of the encounter completely changed.
In the fourth and fifth sets, Sinner no longer looked like the player who had previously controlled the match. Cerúndolo, according to match reports, took advantage of his opponent's weaker movement and visible drop in intensity, but did not lose his own discipline even after the initial deficit. The 6:1 score in both final sets shows that the comeback was not reduced to a few random points, but to a complete change in the balance of power on the court. For Cerúndolo, this is the victory of his career, while for Sinner it is the earliest end to Roland Garros at a moment when he was the top favorite for the title.
Zverev the bookmakers' first choice, Djokovic right behind him
After Sinner's elimination, betting projections changed within a few hours. Covers reported on May 28 that Alexander Zverev had become the new favorite to win the men's tournament, ahead of Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud and other remaining candidates. Bleacher Report, citing FanDuel Sportsbook, listed a similar order: Zverev moved to the top, and Djokovic became one of the main challengers. Such assessments do not mean that the path to the title is simple, but they clearly show how much Sinner's elimination changed the market and sporting picture of the tournament.
Zverev came to Paris as the second seed and one of the players with the most stable results on clay, but also with the reputation of a tennis player who still lacks a Grand Slam title. The German player has belonged to the top of the ATP Tour for years, has won major tournaments and played big matches, but at Grand Slam level he has fallen short in the final stages more than once. Because of that, part of the public often describes him as a player with missed opportunities, although such a label does not change the fact that he is one of the most dangerous remaining candidates. Sinner's defeat removed the biggest obstacle from the upper part of the projections, but Zverev still has to confirm his favorite status on the court.
Djokovic's position is especially interesting because he is in the lower part of the draw with Zverev, which means that, according to the published draw and analyses after Sinner's elimination, the two of them cannot meet in the final. This is an important detail for understanding the tournament mathematics: bookmakers may consider them the two main favorites, but one of them can block the other's path before the final match if both reach the projected stages. Sinner's elimination simultaneously opened space for other players in the upper part of the draw, especially those who until a few days ago were counting on the possibility of meeting the top seed. Roland Garros thus got a much more uncertain men's tournament than it seemed after the draw.
Djokovic's hunt for number 25
For Novak Djokovic, the Paris tournament has an additional historical dimension. The Serbian tennis player already has 24 Grand Slam titles, which keeps him at the top of men's tennis by the number of the biggest titles, and in Paris he is again seeking a 25th title at the biggest tournaments. According to his official website, in the third round of Roland Garros he was supposed to play against João Fonseca, after passing demanding opponents in his first appearances and securing the continuation of the tournament. Sinner's departure from the draw does not win the title for him, but it changes the context of the race: there is no longer a player who, before the tournament, was by far the strongest favorite and the bearer of the most dominant form.
Djokovic won Roland Garros in 2016, 2021 and 2023, and his last Paris title also brought him confirmation of exceptional longevity at the highest level. Still, in 2026 he arrives in a different context than in the years of his greatest dominance. ATP data show that before the tournament he was the world's fourth-ranked player, behind Sinner, Alcaraz and Zverev, while the competition has meanwhile gained new generational breadth. Despite that, his ability to play best-of-five-set matches, his experience in the final stages of Grand Slams and his knowledge of Paris clay remain arguments that cannot be ignored.
It is important, however, not to reduce the tournament to a simple formula according to which Sinner's defeat automatically means Djokovic has an open path to the title. Roland Garros is the most physically demanding Grand Slam, and conditions on clay often reward patience, movement and the ability to adapt through long rallies. Djokovic must pass through his own part of the draw, avoid physical crises and maintain his level of play through several matches in which opponents will have little to lose. In such circumstances, the advantage of experience can be great, but it is not sufficient by itself.
The upper part of the draw got a new logic
Sinner's elimination changed the upper half of the tournament the most, because the top seed was supposed to be the central obstacle for the others there. According to Covers' analysis after the change in odds, players such as Ben Shelton and Francisco Cerúndolo gained more space in that part of the draw, while Juan Manuel Cerúndolo became an unexpectedly important actor in the tournament by defeating Sinner. His success does not mean that he is suddenly a favorite for the title, but it does mean that the projected path can no longer be based on the assumption of Sinner's dominance. Every next match in that part of the tournament now carries additional uncertainty.
For the organizers and the audience, such an outcome has a double effect. On the one hand, the tournament lost the top seed and strongest favorite already in the first days of the main part of the competition, which is a major sporting blow to the expected narrative. On the other hand, unpredictability is one of the reasons why Grand Slam tournaments retain their special appeal. One physical drop, one extended set or one day of extreme conditions can change the entire picture of the tournament. That is exactly what happened in Paris, where Sinner's defeat opened the possibility that the final stages will bring names and combinations that were not in the foreground before the start of the tournament.
A special context is also provided by the absence or weaker availability of some of the biggest names in ideal form. Carlos Alcaraz, the 2025 defending champion according to the list of recent Roland Garros winners cited by Covers, is not part of the current story in the way he would otherwise be one of the first candidates. Without Sinner, and with Djokovic and Zverev in the same part of the draw, the tournament has turned into a more open race in which the favorites can no longer rely only on ranking and reputation. This especially applies to players who do not yet have a Grand Slam title, because a rare opportunity has opened for them in Paris.
Heat as a factor, but not the only explanation
The physical conditions at Roland Garros 2026 cannot be separated from the story of Sinner's elimination, but they should be interpreted with caution. The Guardian reported that players complained about intense heat and that the issue of scheduling matches in the hottest part of the day became an important part of the discussion at the tournament. In such circumstances, the risk of cramps, exhaustion and sudden drops in concentration increases, especially in best-of-five-set matches. Still, the conditions are the same framework for both players, and Cerúndolo had to remain stable enough to use the opportunity that opened for him.
Sinner's case shows how thin the line is between dominance and crisis in a Grand Slam match. Up to 5:1 in the third set, it looked as if the top seed would routinely progress to the next round, and then a series of lost points and a drop in physical energy opened space for the opponent. In tennis, such moments can rarely be stopped by reputation alone: when one player stops covering the court at the same speed, the other gains more and more time and confidence. Cerúndolo recognized that and turned it into a victory that will remain one of the main stories of the tournament.
For Sinner, the consequences are not only related to the result. As the world's No. 1 player, he arrived in Paris with the expectation that he would confirm his dominance on clay and continue the streak that had put him in the position of the main favorite. A second-round defeat will therefore be analyzed through the health aspect, energy management and the question of how to react when a secure match begins to fall apart. His ranking does not disappear with one defeat, but in the Grand Slam context such an outcome leaves the impression of a major missed opportunity.
Paris got a new finale before the finale
After Sinner's elimination, Roland Garros enters a phase in which every match involving a favorite gains additional weight. Zverev now has to carry the role of the bookmakers' first choice, which is a different psychological burden from chasing from the shadows. Djokovic, on the other hand, again enters the familiar role of a player who may not be the top favorite by seasonal form, but who can rarely be underestimated at Grand Slams. Between them stand opponents, fatigue, conditions and the specificity of the clay surface, and it was precisely Sinner's defeat that reminded everyone how quickly assumptions can fall apart.
For Djokovic, a 25th Grand Slam title would be a historic step forward, but the path to it is still long. If he continues winning, every next duel will carry increasing attention, especially because of the possibility of a meeting with Zverev before the final. For Zverev, this may be one of the most open opportunities to finally turn years spent at the top into the biggest title. For the rest of the draw, Sinner's defeat means that there is no longer an untouchable favorite in the upper half. Roland Garros thus already in the first week got a plot twist that changed the entire tournament, and the final stages will show who will truly know how to use that change.
Sources:
- Roland Garros – official draw and results of the men's singles tournament 2026. (link)
- ATP Tour – official ATP singles ranking and player ranking (link)
- Covers – updated betting projections for Roland Garros 2026 after Sinner's elimination (link)
- Bleacher Report – overview of the change in odds and favorite status after Jannik Sinner's defeat (link)
- The Guardian – report on the impact of heat on players during Roland Garros 2026 (link)
- Novak Djokovic's official website – information on the current tournament and schedule of appearances at Roland Garros (link)