Introduction: The Istanbul Canal and the Reasons Behind the Project

The Istanbul Canal project is one of the most ambitious infrastructure undertakings in Turkey's history, envisioned as a new maritime passage that would connect the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara. The project was first announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2011, and its purpose is to alleviate traffic on the Bosporus, one of the busiest maritime routes in the world. This new 45-kilometer-long waterway is intended to serve as an alternative to the existing Bosporus Strait, thereby enabling a faster and safer passage for ships, while reducing the risk of accidents, congestion, and protecting central parts of Istanbul from potential ecological disasters caused by the passage of large oil tankers.

Divisions in Public Opinion: Environmental Concerns and Opposition

From the very beginning, the Istanbul Canal has sparked a significant division of opinion. While the Turkish government claims that the project will bring economic benefits and reduce the burden on the Bosporus, environmentalists and political opponents warn of the serious consequences the canal may have. The Turkish Minister of Infrastructure emphasized that the construction of two "smart" new communities along the canal would attract at least half a million residents and open up various economic opportunities, which is crucial for the recovery of an economy struggling with high unemployment [10].

However, many opponents argue that the project, aside from economic growth, will cause irreparable damage to the environment. There is particular concern about the ecological balance of the Black and Marmara Seas. According to the statement of the prominent Turkish marine biologist Cemal Saydam, the canal will disrupt the delicate balance between the two bodies of water, alter salinity, and destabilize the natural dynamics of water flows, which will have catastrophic consequences for marine ecosystems [8].

Impact on the Political and International Scene

In addition to environmental issues, the project also raises international political tensions, particularly in relations between Turkey and Russia. The Istanbul Canal will not be covered by the 1936 Montreux Convention, which regulates navigation through the Bosporus and Dardanelles and limits the presence of foreign warships in the Black Sea to a maximum of 21 days. This opens the door for a potential increase in NATO's naval presence, which Russia perceives as a serious threat to its strategic interests in the region [8].

The Turkish government views the project as an opportunity to improve its negotiating positions with Moscow and to assert its role in a broader geopolitical context. Analysts suggest that access to the Black Sea will become a crucial point in the coming years, especially in light of the escalating NATO-Russia tensions due to the conflict in Ukraine [8].

Resistance from the Local Community and Opposition

The mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, is one of the loudest opponents of the Istanbul Canal project. He described the project as a "nightmare" and pointed out that the city administration had received a number of warnings from scientists about potential damages. According to him, the canal will not only disrupt the ecological balance but will also seriously threaten the city's drinking water supply [8]. He claims that the government has not consulted marine scientists nor effectively conducted environmental impact studies, indicating a lack of transparency in the planning of the project.

In addition to environmental concerns, there are also additional worries about financing. Most leading Turkish banks refuse to participate in financing the project due to their international obligations to support environmentally sustainable projects. The estimated cost of the canal is as much as 65 billion dollars, and it remains to be seen whether the government will manage to find the funds to complete it [8].

Environmental Risks and Potential Earthquakes

One of the main concerns associated with the project is the risk of destroying some of the last forest reserves in the region. The construction of the canal will pass through forested areas northwest of Istanbul, further reducing the green spaces in the city. Additionally, geologists warn that building a new canal could increase the risk of damage in the event of a major earthquake, which is particularly important considering Turkey's seismic activity [9]. Mayor Imamoglu emphasized that the bridge project over the planned canal has been in the works since 2006, but this is more related to roads and infrastructure than the canal itself.

Ultimately, regardless of the potential economic benefits, many questions remain to be answered. Critics are asking whether the economic gain is worth the long-term ecological damage and geopolitical risks posed by the canal's construction. Opponents of the project have pointed out that the canal will impact the drinking water supply for Istanbul and threatens the destruction of ecosystems and an increase in ecological risks across the region. Given that the project is still in its early stages, the future of the Istanbul Canal remains uncertain.