Gulf airlines facing a long recovery after wartime disruptions in air traffic
Former Etihad Airways chief executive James Hogan has assessed that the largest Gulf air carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, could need one to two years to recover fully after the end of the regional conflict that has disrupted air traffic in the Middle East in recent months. According to specialized aviation media, Hogan does not question the long-term resilience of that model, but warns that passenger confidence, flight schedules, fleet utilization and the wider tourism economy are not restored overnight. This is a system that has been built for decades on safe and predictable transit between Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia, so any prolonged interruption in regional airspace has consequences far beyond the borders of the Gulf itself.
Hogan’s assessment comes at a time when Gulf carriers, after a period of strong growth and record financial results, are exposed to a different kind of pressure: not a fall in demand caused by an economic crisis, but an operational risk that directly affects the central part of their network. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad have for years used the geographical position of Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi as an advantage in connecting major world markets. When airspace in that area is closed, narrowed or bypassed for security reasons, that advantage becomes significantly more complex to manage.
Hogan: recovery is a matter of time, but it cannot be accelerated only by lower prices
According to a report by Aviation News Online, Hogan believes that Gulf airlines could restore operations within a period of up to two years after wartime disruptions, while emphasizing that the fundamental hub model in the Gulf remains strong. His main message is that long-term competitiveness must not be reduced to short-term price cuts, because the return of passengers depends on safety, reliability, availability of connections and brand reputation. Arabian Business previously reported Hogan’s assessment that Gulf states can emerge from the crisis even stronger if they focus on joint destination promotion, long-term strategy and service quality, and not only on discounts.
Such an assessment is especially important because it comes from a manager who was one of the more visible figures in the development of Abu Dhabi’s aviation model. Hogan led Etihad Airways during a period of strong expansion and positioning of the company as a global carrier, and today he appears as an industry adviser and commentator. His warning does not mean that the Gulf model has lost its purpose, but that the shock of war changes the rhythm of recovery. An airline can reopen a route as soon as security and regulatory circumstances allow it, but passengers, tour operators, insurers and corporate clients often need a longer period of stability before returning to their previous booking patterns.
In aviation, such disruptions are not measured only by the number of canceled flights. Every airspace bypass means additional fuel, longer flight times, different crew schedules, greater pressure on maintenance and more difficult connection planning. If the hub model is based on precise waves of arrivals and departures, even minor delays can disrupt dozens of connected flights. That is why recovery is not reduced only to putting aircraft back in the air, but to re-establishing confidence in the entire connecting system.
Gulf hubs depend on open and predictable airspace
Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi developed into global aviation hubs precisely because they are located between major markets. Passengers from Europe continue through the Gulf toward India, Southeast Asia, Australia and East Africa, while passengers from Asia continue through the same hubs toward Europe, North America and Africa. The advantage of such a position is visible in the networks of Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad, but it depends on stable airspace, reliable slots and the ability to plan flights months in advance.
According to reports by international media during March 2026, closures and restrictions of airspace in the region led to major traffic interruptions, temporary suspensions of some flights and rerouting. The Guardian reported in early March that major Middle Eastern airlines delayed the resumption of regular commercial flights while governments organized evacuations and repatriation flights. In a separate analysis, the same newspaper described how the conflict created a large gap in global airspace, forcing carriers to choose longer and more expensive routes via the Caucasus, Egypt or southern corridors.
For a passenger, such a situation appears as a canceled flight, a missed connection or a longer journey. For an airline, it means a complex series of decisions in which safety must be aligned with commercial obligations. Air carriers do not decide only on the basis of their own assessment. Regulatory instructions, insurance conditions, diplomatic circumstances, the availability of alternative routes, the condition of airports and risk assessments for crew and passengers all come into consideration. That is precisely why the return of traffic often takes place gradually, even when part of the airspace reopens.
The crisis hit the industry after a period of record results
The scale of the disruption is especially visible because the leading Gulf carriers entered the crisis after strong business results. According to a report by Dubai Airports, Dubai International received 95.2 million passengers in 2025, which was described as the highest annual international passenger traffic recorded at a single airport. A year earlier, DXB had already set a historic record with 92.3 million passengers, showing how quickly demand grew after the pandemic period and how important Dubai became in global traffic flows.
Emirates Group stated in its financial reports for 2024/2025 that it recorded a group profit of 22.7 billion dirhams, or about 6.2 billion US dollars, while the airline Emirates itself carried 53.7 million passengers. Etihad Airways, according to the company’s official announcement, achieved the highest profit in its history in 2024, 1.7 billion dirhams, with 18.5 million passengers carried and growth in passenger revenue. Qatar Airways Group also highlighted record results and the strong position of its network in its annual report for 2024/2025, along with continued investment in Hamad International Airport and international partnerships.
These data show that this is not an industry that entered the crisis weakened by a lack of demand. On the contrary, Gulf carriers had strong balance sheets, recognizable brands and large networks. But wartime and security disruptions affect the very infrastructure of their business model. When flights must be rerouted or temporarily suspended, the size of the network simultaneously becomes a source of resilience and a source of complexity. A larger fleet enables faster adjustments, but also creates higher costs if aircraft are grounded, fly longer routes or schedules must be changed from day to day.
Passenger confidence returns more slowly than the timetable
One of Hogan’s key messages concerns passenger confidence. A timetable can technically be restored relatively quickly, but passengers often wait for clearer signals of stability before again choosing routes through an area they recently associated with war, airspace closures or sudden cancellations. This especially applies to families, business travelers with strict deadlines and tourists who plan trips months in advance. On a journey with one connection, the reputation of the hub is just as important as the ticket price.
Aviation Business Middle East reported Hogan’s assessment that Gulf airlines must turn safety, connectivity and quality of service into renewed confidence. This means that carriers will not only have to communicate that they are flying again, but also that they can consistently maintain schedules, protect passengers during disruptions and offer alternative connections. In large global networks, a passenger often does not buy only transport from one point to another, but the expectation that the system will function even when a problem appears.
The recovery of tourism is additionally complex because airlines are not isolated from hotels, the congress industry, cruises, retail and local carriers. If the number of arrivals via Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi decreases, the effect spills over into accommodation, hospitality, retail and business events. Hogan therefore warns that destinations should not respond only with aggressive discounts. Discounts can stimulate bookings in the short term, but they do not solve the fundamental issue of the perception of safety and predictability.
Operating costs rise when routes are extended
Bypassing airspace directly increases costs. A longer route means more fuel, more crew working hours, more complex rest planning, possible changes in technical stops and a greater risk of delays. If such costs persist for a longer period, airlines must decide whether to absorb them, pass them on to ticket prices or reduce capacity on certain routes. In competitive international traffic, none of these options is simple.
According to The Guardian’s report from May 2026, war-related disruptions were also felt beyond the Gulf, so Heathrow recorded a decline in the total number of passengers in April, while traffic between London and the Middle East was significantly weaker than a year earlier. At the same time, some passengers sought alternative routes through other European hubs. Such a shift shows that the effects of a regional conflict do not remain local. When the security picture changes in one of the world’s most important corridors, part of global traffic is also reshuffled.
The International Air Transport Association IATA tracks movements in demand, capacity and load factors in its monthly statistics, and such indicators become crucial in crisis periods for assessing the speed of recovery. A fall in demand in one region can be partly offset by growth in other markets, but for carriers whose networks are strongly tied to Gulf hubs, the more important question is how quickly transit traffic returns. If passengers get used to alternative routes, part of the demand may return more slowly even after the security reasons for bypassing weaken.
The Gulf’s long-term advantage has not disappeared
Despite the warnings, Hogan’s assessment is not pessimistic in the sense of a long-term collapse of the Gulf model. On the contrary, he emphasizes that geographical position, quality of service, major infrastructure investment and developed global networks remain advantages that competitors can hardly copy quickly. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad have built brands that are not based only on price, but also on the travel experience, a wide choice of connections, strong loyalty programs and links with national tourism strategies.
Gulf airlines have already gone through major shocks, from the COVID-19 pandemic to changes in fuel prices, regional tensions and supply chain disruptions. The difference in the current case is that the conflict directly affects the airspace around their most important hubs. This makes recovery less predictable, but does not remove the fundamental reasons why passengers use these carriers. If the security situation stabilizes, Gulf companies still have fleets, brands and markets that can again attract a large part of the traffic.
The key question therefore is not whether Gulf air traffic will recover, but how long the period between the formal end of wartime disruptions and the real return of confidence will last. Hogan’s estimate of 12 to 24 months can be read precisely as a warning that in aviation, the end of a crisis on the ground does not automatically mean the end of a crisis in planning. Passengers, partners and regulatory bodies must be convinced that routes are stable, that airspace is predictable and that schedules can be maintained without constant extraordinary adjustments.
The next phase will depend on safety, communication and coordination
For Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad and other carriers from the region, the next phase will likely be marked by a gradual restoration of capacity, careful monitoring of demand and increased communication toward passengers. If the security picture improves, companies will try to restore frequencies on key routes and rebuild connections that are most important for the global network. If instability continues, the priority will remain flexibility, security assessments and protecting passengers from sudden disruptions.
For the wider industry, the case of the Gulf shows how much global aviation depends on several major transit corridors. When one of them narrows or closes, the consequences are felt by passengers on routes that at first glance have no direct connection with the area of conflict. That is why the recovery of Gulf airlines will be an important indicator not only for the Middle East, but also for international traffic between continents. If carriers manage to restore confidence without long-term damage to the network, the crisis could confirm the resilience of the model that has changed the map of world aviation over the last two decades.
Sources:
- Aviation News Online – report on James Hogan’s assessment that the recovery of Gulf airlines after wartime disruptions could take up to two years (link)
- Arabian Business – article on Hogan’s assessment that Gulf destinations should rely on brand, strategy and quality, and not only on discounts (link)
- Aviation Business Middle East – analysis on restoring confidence, connectivity and safety perception in Gulf aviation (link)
- Dubai Airports – official announcement on 95.2 million passengers at Dubai International Airport in 2025 (link)
- Emirates Group – annual report for 2024/2025 and data on Emirates’ business results (link)
- Etihad Airways – official announcement on record profit and passenger numbers in 2024 (link)
- Qatar Airways – annual reports and financial data of Qatar Airways Group for 2024/2025 (link)
- IATA – monthly air traffic statistics for tracking demand, capacity and load factors in the global industry (link)
- The Guardian – reports on flight suspensions, airspace closures and the wider consequences of the conflict for air traffic (link)
- The Guardian – analysis of changes in global routes and bypassing Middle Eastern airspace during the conflict (link)