Airlines are no longer planning only for growth, but for resilience to disruption
The global airline industry has entered a new phase after a period in which most of the discussion revolved around the return of passenger demand. At the CAPA Airline Leader Summit, held on April 23 and 24, 2026 in Berlin, the message from leading airline executives and aviation experts was considerably broader: the recovery of demand is no longer the main challenge, but rather the ability of carriers to operate in a world in which supply chains, fuel prices, maintenance, labor, and geopolitical risks have become a permanent source of uncertainty. According to CAPA’s announcement, the summit brought together airline leaders, transport policy makers, suppliers, and industry experts to discuss the future of global air transport. The Berlin gathering thus served as a kind of overview of the industry’s new operating model, in which there is no longer an expectation of a rapid return to the stability that characterized part of the period before the pandemic. Airlines are therefore increasingly re-examining how they order aircraft, contract maintenance, plan route networks, manage inventories, and build relationships with suppliers.
Demand has returned, but the industry is being constrained by supply
According to IATA data for the beginning of 2026, global demand for passenger air transport in January increased by 3.8 percent compared with the same month of the previous year, measured in revenue passenger kilometers. This confirms that passengers have not withdrawn from air transport and that the basic commercial picture for many carriers remains relatively strong. In its global outlook for 2026, IATA states that the industry, despite cost pressures, expects a record net profit of 41 billion US dollars and a stable net margin of 3.9 percent. Such indicators, however, do not mean that aviation has entered a calm period. On the contrary, low margins mean that even smaller disruptions in fuel, maintenance, or aircraft availability quickly become a financial problem.
That was precisely one of the central themes of the Berlin gathering. If, a few years ago, companies were primarily asking whether passengers would return, now they are increasingly asking whether they have enough aircraft, engines, parts, technicians, and flexibility to serve that demand reliably. According to a joint study by IATA and the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, disruptions in the aviation industry supply chain are delaying the production of new aircraft and the delivery of parts, which is causing carriers to postpone the retirement of older aircraft and change fleet plans. This means that growth no longer depends only on ticket sales and market demand, but also on how quickly manufacturers, service providers, and suppliers can deliver what is needed for everyday flying.
Why supply chains have become a strategic issue
According to IATA and Oliver Wyman, the global backlog of commercial aircraft orders reached more than 17,000 aircraft in 2024, which is significantly above the average level of about 13,000 aircraft per year in the period from 2010 to 2019. Oliver Wyman states that such a backlog, at current production rates, corresponds to approximately 14 years of production. This is an important figure because it shows that the problem is not a short-term stoppage that can be resolved in a few quarters. It is a deep mismatch between airlines’ demand for new, more efficient aircraft and the ability of the industrial system to produce and deliver them within predictable deadlines.
Such a situation is changing the relationship between airlines and suppliers. In more stable periods, carriers were able to optimize costs more strongly, reduce inventories, and rely on timely deliveries. Now there is increasing talk of strategic control: longer-term maintenance contracts, better visibility into supply chains, larger inventories of critical parts, and earlier capacity planning in overhaul centers. According to IATA, the causes of the current disruptions include geopolitical instability, a shortage of raw materials, and tight labor markets. Because of this, airlines no longer view the supply chain as a back-office function, but as one of the foundations of flight schedule reliability and financial resilience.
Older fleets increase fuel and maintenance costs
The most direct consequence of delays in new aircraft is the longer use of older aircraft. According to the IATA and Oliver Wyman study, slower production and delivery disruptions could cost the aviation industry more than 11 billion US dollars in 2025. The estimate includes approximately 4.2 billion dollars in additional fuel costs because carriers are using older and less efficient aircraft, 3.1 billion dollars in additional maintenance costs, 2.6 billion dollars in higher engine leasing costs, and 1.4 billion dollars in costs for holding larger inventories of spare parts. These figures explain why the industry is increasingly talking about resilience, not just growth.
An older fleet is not a problem only because of fuel consumption. It requires more inspections, longer time in maintenance, and greater availability of parts that are already limited. When an engine remains in overhaul longer or when a key component is missing, the consequence can be the grounding of an aircraft, a reduction in frequencies, or a delay in the introduction of new routes. Passengers most often see such problems only as a change in the flight schedule, a more expensive ticket, or a smaller choice of flights, but for companies behind this lies a complex chain of decisions about fleet availability, supplier contracts, leasing costs, and maintenance priorities. That is exactly why technical maintenance is increasingly being transformed from an operational function into a strategic area of risk management.
Fuel remains an unpredictable cost
Fuel remains one of the largest items in airline costs, and its price directly affects profitability, ticket prices, and route network decisions. In its 2026 fuel fact sheet, IATA states an assumed average jet fuel price of 88 US dollars per barrel, with an average Brent price of 62 dollars and a refinery margin of 26 dollars. Such projections do not eliminate the risk, but only make it more visible in planning. If fuel prices change sharply because of geopolitical events, supply disruptions, or movements in energy markets, carriers with thin margins quickly face pressure on their results.
That is why companies are trying to combine several approaches: more efficient aircraft, better route planning, more precise consumption management, financial hedging of part of future fuel needs, and the development of sustainable aviation fuels. IATA emphasizes that sustainable aviation fuel is one of the key tools for decarbonizing the sector, but also warns that its future share depends on production capacities, regulatory incentives, and refinery decisions. In practice, this means that climate goals, fuel availability, and cost stability are increasingly overlapping. Airlines must simultaneously reduce emissions, preserve competitiveness, and ensure that their growth does not depend on overly optimistic assumptions about fuel.
The shortage of experts is becoming a constraint on growth
Alongside aircraft, engines, and fuel, qualified labor is becoming one of the most important resources. In the documents of the Next Generation of Aviation Professionals program, ICAO estimates that by 2043 the industry will need 670,000 additional pilots, 1,085,000 cabin crew members, 698,000 maintenance experts, and 137,000 air traffic controllers in order to maintain safe and efficient operations. This estimate shows that the problem is not limited to individual companies or regions, but affects the entire aviation ecosystem. If there are not enough pilots, technicians, and controllers, new aircraft and new routes cannot be turned into actual capacity.
The shortage of people is especially sensitive in maintenance. According to Oliver Wyman, supply chains, labor shortages, and structural constraints have continued to limit production, while airlines are increasingly dependent on older fleets. This increases demand for service hours, spare parts, and specialized knowledge. In such circumstances, training, employee retention, and the productivity of overhaul capacities are no longer merely human resources issues, but prerequisites for operational stability. Companies that secure technical capacities earlier and develop their own knowledge bases will have a greater ability to maintain flight schedules even if disruptions in the supply chain continue.
Artificial intelligence is entering maintenance, but it does not replace responsibility
One of the industry’s responses to the new instability is the more intensive use of data and artificial intelligence. In aviation, predictive maintenance systems are increasingly being developed, in which data from aircraft, engines, and components is used to identify potential failures earlier and to plan servicing better. The goal is not only to reduce the number of unexpected technical problems, but also to allocate parts, tools, and experts more efficiently. In conditions of limited maintenance capacities, information about which intervention is most urgent and when it should be performed can mean the difference between a regular flight and the grounding of an aircraft.
Such technology, however, does not remove the need for human judgment and regulatory oversight. Aviation is a highly regulated industry in which safety decisions cannot be left only to algorithms. Predictive tools can help with early warning, pattern analysis, and schedule optimization, but responsibility for airworthiness, maintenance, and operational decisions remains with certified experts and companies. That is why digitalization in aviation pays off the most when it is connected with high-quality data, trained personnel, and clear processes. Otherwise, artificial intelligence can become another layer of complexity instead of a tool for greater resilience.
Berlin as an example of the broader struggle for connectivity
The Berlin hosts of the gathering also emphasized the local dimension of global changes. According to a joint announcement by Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg GmbH, visitBerlin, and the chambers of commerce of Berlin and Cottbus, the goal was to present the Berlin-Brandenburg region as an aviation hub and strengthen international connectivity. Aletta von Massenbach, CEO of Berlin Brandenburg Airport, said that bringing the industry together in the capital enables the region to show its potential and to discuss key issues with decision-makers from airlines, service companies, and suppliers. The organizers also pointed out that the Connectivity Board initiative was established in 2025, bringing together BER, visitBerlin, and the chambers of commerce in order to attract new air connections.
This local story illustrates the broader dynamic well. Cities and regions compete for direct and long-haul connections because they bring business contacts, tourism, investment, and jobs. But airlines, in conditions of limited fleets and higher costs, are choosing more carefully where they will deploy capacity. According to the announcement by the Berlin hosts, Air Canada is expected to fly between Berlin and Montreal four times a week from July 3 to October 11, 2026, which was presented as an important addition to the region’s long-haul connectivity. Such routes are no longer only a commercial decision by one company, but the result of a broader combination of demand, aircraft availability, costs, geopolitical assessments, and regional strategy.
The industry is turning toward long-term partnerships
The message running through the discussions in Berlin is that airlines cannot rely only on short-term cost management. In its description of the summit, CAPA states that leading carriers are increasingly developing digital ecosystems, loyalty programs, personalized sales, and strategic partnerships, while the industry’s profit model is gradually moving away from the mere sale of seats. In a world in which aircraft deliveries are unpredictable, maintenance is more expensive, labor is limited, and fuel is volatile, additional sources of revenue and stronger relationships with partners are becoming an important part of stability.
This does not mean that passengers will soon see a simple solution to all the industry’s problems. On the contrary, the period ahead for airlines will likely be marked by more cautious capacity planning, greater discipline in fleet deployment, and a stronger emphasis on reliability. Carriers that better control the supply of parts, maintenance, data, labor, and financial exposure to fuel will have an advantage in a market that remains strong, but less predictable than before. The Berlin summit therefore did not mark only a discussion about the future of flying, but also an acknowledgment that aviation must be built for a more fragile world in which resilience becomes just as important as growth.
Sources:
- CAPA - Centre for Aviation – data on the CAPA Airline Leader Summit in Berlin, the themes of the gathering, and the participants (link)
- Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg GmbH – joint announcement on the holding of the summit in Berlin, the Connectivity Board, and the new Berlin–Montreal route (link)
- IATA – press release and summary of the study on the costs of disruptions in the aviation industry supply chain (link)
- Oliver Wyman – analysis of the commercial aviation supply chain, order backlog, and costs for airlines (link)
- IATA – global outlook for air transport in 2026 and projections of industry profitability (link)
- IATA – data on the growth of global passenger demand at the beginning of 2026 (link)
- IATA – fuel fact sheet, price assumptions, and sustainable aviation fuel (link)
- ICAO – document of the Next Generation of Aviation Professionals program on future needs for aviation professionals (link)