Climate change, aided by natural phenomena such as El Niño, is causing unprecedented losses of ice masses on tropical glaciers. The Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), located in the Peruvian Andes, has become a key focus of research for scientists worldwide due to its sensitivity to global climate changes. While it has been known for decades that tropical glaciers are retreating, the latest discoveries indicate the dramatic effects of El Niño, which significantly accelerates the melting of ice surfaces.

El Niño, a cyclical climate phenomenon that causes unusually high ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, is becoming more intense due to climate change. This phenomenon not only affects weather patterns worldwide but also directly threatens the stability of tropical glaciers, including Quelccaya. The glacier, once a source of vital fresh water for local communities, is now rapidly melting, posing a threat to the survival of ecosystems and water resources in the region.

Satellite monitoring reveals alarming changes

Using satellite imagery collected by NASA's Landsat satellites since 1985, researchers have discovered that the Quelccaya Ice Cap has lost nearly 58% of its snow cover over the past few decades. This data has allowed scientists to more accurately quantify the impact of El Niño on the glacier. Algorithms using infrared images enable precise tracking of changes in snow cover, giving scientists insight into the dynamics of glacier mass loss during extreme climate events.

In addition to changes in snow cover, scientists have noted an increase in so-called glacial floods, where lakes formed from melted ice suddenly release water due to the collapse of ice barriers. Such events have occurred multiple times, including a significant flood in November 2022 that caused severe vegetation erosion in the valley below the glacier. These changes affect not only the geological structure of the area but also local communities that rely on glaciers as a source of drinking water and irrigation.

Effects of El Niño on ice cover

The Quelccaya Ice Cap, located at an altitude of 5670 meters, is particularly sensitive to temperature changes. The regular El Niño cycles cause significant warming in the region, which in turn leads to a reduction in snow cover and accelerated ice melt. During strong El Niño events, such as those recorded in 1998, 2016, and 2023, a significant decrease in the ratio of snow cover to the total glacier area has been observed.

During El Niño, southern Peru experiences warmer and drier conditions, drastically reducing the amount of snow that would normally be needed to replenish ice masses. Such extreme weather conditions further exacerbate the existing trend of glacier retreat. According to some projections, if this pace continues, snow cover on Quelccaya could completely disappear by 2080.

How melting affects local communities

The consequences of the retreat of the Quelccaya glacier are felt not only by scientists studying climate change but also by local communities that depend on the glacier's water for agriculture and daily needs. As the glaciers retreat, less drinking water is available, and dry seasons are becoming longer and more extreme. More frequent and stronger El Niños are expected to further accelerate ice loss, which could lead to the complete disappearance of water sources for thousands of people.

Although research in this area is still ongoing, most scientists agree that upcoming climate changes will have catastrophic consequences for tropical glaciers. Without appropriate action and international cooperation, these vital water sources could disappear forever, severely endangering local communities as well as a deeper understanding of climate changes recorded in ice layers over millennia.

Therefore, the question of the survival of the Quelccaya Ice Cap becomes one of the key issues in the fight against climate change. This research provides important insight into the complex interactions between natural climate cycles and anthropogenic impacts and reminds us of the need for urgent action to preserve the remaining glaciers around the world.

Source: Ohio State University