Relentless climate awaits the 2026 World Cup: heat is becoming one of the tournament's biggest challenges
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to be the largest in the history of the competition, but it is becoming increasingly clear that, alongside sporting questions, one issue from outside the pitch will also impose itself: extreme heat. The tournament will be played from June 11 to July 19, 2026, in the United States of America, Mexico and Canada, and the expanded format brings 48 national teams and 104 matches. According to official FIFA data, matches will be played in 16 host cities, from Vancouver and Toronto in the north to Monterrey, Guadalajara, Mexico City, Houston, Dallas and Miami in much warmer climate zones. Such a schedule already raises the question of how to protect players, referees, workers, volunteers and fans during a period of the year when heat and humidity are usually high in some of the cities.
A new warning ahead of the tournament came from an analysis by the World Weather Attribution group, which deals with the link between climate change and extreme weather events. According to that analysis, approximately one quarter of matches at the 2026 World Cup could be played in conditions that exceed the safety recommendations of FIFPRO, the global union of professional footballers. Reuters reported on May 14, 2026, that about five matches could fall into the category of conditions in which postponement of the match is recommended. That does not mean those matches will certainly be postponed, but it shows that planning a tournament in June and July in North America is no longer only a logistical issue, but also a public health issue.
Risk is not measured only by air temperature
The key term in assessing danger is not ordinary air temperature, but WBGT, or wet-bulb globe temperature. The U.S. National Weather Service states that WBGT takes into account temperature, humidity, wind, solar radiation and other meteorological parameters, which makes it a particularly useful indicator of heat stress in athletes and people who work or spend time outdoors. In other words, two cities with the same air temperature can be very different for the human body if they differ in humidity, wind, shade and sun exposure.
According to World Weather Attribution, FIFPRO recommends additional cooling measures when WBGT reaches 26 degrees Celsius or more, while at 28 degrees Celsius and above the conditions are considered unsafe for play and postponement is recommended. Reuters states that 28 degrees WBGT can approximately correspond to a temperature of about 38 degrees Celsius in dry conditions or about 30 degrees Celsius in high humidity. For football, this is especially important because a match lasts a long time, the intensity of play changes from minute to minute, and players cannot freely interrupt activity as in some other sports.
Heat stress does not affect only the risk of serious health problems, but also the game itself. In high temperatures the body uses more energy for cooling, the heart works under greater strain, and players instinctively reduce intensity to avoid overheating. Reuters reported the assessment of Dr. Chris Mullington from Imperial College London NHS Trust that, among elite footballers, extreme heat could primarily become a matter of performance rather than mass medical interventions. According to his interpretation, players could protect themselves and play more cautiously, which could affect the pace and attractiveness of matches.
Open stadiums and fan zones are the most exposed
The World Weather Attribution analysis particularly warns about the difference between stadiums with air-conditioned conditions and the areas around them. Some stadiums, for example in Dallas, Houston and Atlanta, can reduce the risk for players and spectators inside the venue if closed roofs and cooling systems are used. But such infrastructure does not protect people who travel for hours to the stadium, wait at entrances, work in fan zones or watch matches at public screenings. Precisely those spaces are often the most exposed because they include large crowds, asphalt surfaces, limited shade and longer stays outdoors.
According to data published by Reuters, more than one third of matches with at least a ten percent chance of crossing the threshold of 26 degrees WBGT are played in stadiums without air conditioning, including Miami, Kansas City, New York and Philadelphia. The final match, scheduled for July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford in the U.S. state of New Jersey, according to the analysis now has approximately a one-in-eight chance of crossing the threshold of 26 degrees WBGT. For the more dangerous threshold of 28 degrees WBGT, a risk of about three percent is cited. These are probabilities, not a forecast for a specific day, but they are significant enough to be taken seriously in the preparation of the tournament.
Miami, Dallas, Houston, Monterrey and Kansas City appear in several expert assessments as locations with high heat load, although the nature of the risk differs from city to city. In Miami the problem is the combination of heat and humidity, in parts of Texas and northern Mexico the danger is linked to very high temperatures, and in Mexico City and Guadalajara an additional factor is altitude. A scientific review published in the journal Sports Medicine in March 2026 points out that World Cups have previously had individual environmental challenges, but that the 2026 edition brings an unusually complex combination of heat, altitude, travel, air pollution and seasonal allergens.
A comparison with 1994 shows how much conditions have changed
The United States of America last hosted the World Cup in 1994, when the tournament was also played in summer. There were hot matches then as well, but according to World Weather Attribution today's conditions are substantially less favorable because the climate is warmer than three decades ago. The comparison in the analysis starts from the fact that the climate in 1994 was about 0.7 degrees Celsius cooler than today's in relation to the global mean temperature. Such a change may sound small at first glance, but in practice it increases the frequency and intensity of days on which thresholds important for human endurance are exceeded.
World Weather Attribution estimates that the number of matches at which the threshold of 26 degrees WBGT can be reached has increased compared with the conditions from 1994. When stadiums without air conditioning are taken into account, the relative increase in risk becomes even more pronounced. The analysis states that among the locations most exposed to extreme heat are MetLife Stadium in the New York area, the stadium in Philadelphia, the stadium in Kansas City and the stadium in Miami, with Monterrey and Boston also mentioned. It is important that such estimates do not refer only to meteorological statistics, but also to match start times, because a match at 3 p.m. and a match in the evening carry completely different strain for the body.
Climate scientists also warn that the problem cannot be solved only with short water breaks. If a match is played in conditions of high heat and humidity, the body needs real cooling, rest and a reduction in load. That is why a broader package of measures is increasingly being discussed: later match times, more shade, easier access to water, cooling zones, a larger number of medical teams, better communication with spectators and clear protocols for postponement if conditions exceed dangerous thresholds. Such measures are especially important because the World Cup is not only a series of matches, but a hours-long event that begins long before the first whistle and ends only after the mass of people leaves the stadium area.
FIFA announces measures, the union calls for caution
FIFA, according to Reuters, said that it has carried out planning related to heat risks and is preparing measures that include three-minute hydration breaks in each half, cooling infrastructure for fans and players, adapted work and rest cycles, and increased medical readiness that can change according to actual conditions. World Weather Attribution states that FIFA has already announced three minutes of breaks in each half of every match, regardless of conditions. Such a decision can help standardize the approach, but experts warn that the same measure does not have to be sufficient for all cities, stadiums and time slots.
FIFPRO, in its reactions to the analyses, emphasized that the assessments justify the need for a range of strategies that would better protect the health and performance of players. The union has warned for years that the competition calendar is becoming increasingly crowded and that extreme weather conditions additionally burden athletes. Unlike club competitions, the World Cup brings together national teams that often have very little time for joint preparation, and players come from different climate zones, leagues and rhythms of the season. Acclimatization, nutrition, sleep, hydration and medical monitoring will therefore be almost as important as tactical preparation.
The scientific paper in Sports Medicine recommends that national teams prepare for the tournament through long-term and short-term strategies to mitigate environmental challenges. In the context of heat, this includes acclimatization, planning training in similar conditions, cooling before and during matches, monitoring signs of heat illness and an individual approach to players. The authors point out that there are general guidelines for sport in the heat, but that football is specific because the rules, rhythm of play and limited number of stoppages do not allow simple adoption of solutions from other sports.
Fans are more exposed than is often thought
The public discussion about heat often focuses on players, but the health risk for fans can be broader. Players are under constant medical supervision, have access to water, ice, cooling towels and controlled spaces. Fans may stand in the sun for hours, travel by public transport or on foot, wait for security checks and spend time in crowds. Older people, children, people with chronic illnesses, pregnant women, outdoor workers, volunteers and those who are not accustomed to local climate conditions are especially vulnerable.
The U.S. National Weather Service states that protective measures against heat in work and sports environments can be based on WBGT and include acclimatization, shade, moving activities to earlier or later parts of the day, work and rest schedules, and reducing heavy physical activities. Although these recommendations were originally described also for working conditions, the same logic applies to large sports gatherings. If high values of heat stress are expected, organizers must think about the entire movement of people, not only about 90 minutes of play.
For spectators, this means that timely information will be crucial. Heat warnings should be clear, multilingual and available before arrival at the stadium. Water, shade, rest areas, medical points and the possibility of rapid response can reduce the number of emergency interventions. Host cities must at the same time take into account that risky conditions do not occur only at stadiums, but also in official fan zones, transport hubs, tourist centers and around hotels.
The tournament as a test for the future of major sports events
The 2026 World Cup could become a turning point in the way major sports events are planned in the era of climate change. Football championships have long been guided by the logic of television time slots, stadium capacities, commercial interests and the schedules of club seasons. But growing risks from extreme heat, storms, floods and air pollution are increasingly entering the same equation. If matches have to be played at times of day that are suitable for a global audience but dangerous for people on the pitch and in the stands, organizers will increasingly face difficult compromises.
The World Weather Attribution report warns that air-conditioned stadiums can reduce exposure inside venues, but they cannot remove the risk outside them. This is especially important for the World Cup because the tournament is not a closed television product, but an urban event that attracts hundreds of thousands of people into public space. If dangerous conditions occur at match time, the consequences can affect traffic, emergency services, security services, hospitality, tourism and the local population. That is why there is increasing talk of the need for climate assessment to become one of the central criteria when choosing hosts and dates for future competitions.
For the 2026 edition, the question remains how effective the announced measures will be in real conditions. Heat cannot be precisely predicted in advance for every day of the tournament, but risk can be planned for. The most important test will not only be whether matches start on time, but whether organizers will be able to react quickly if weather conditions become dangerous. In that sense, the 2026 World Cup will be a sporting spectacle, but also a major practical test of the adaptation of international football to a climate reality that can no longer be treated as an exception.
Sources:
- FIFA – official overview of hosts, cities, dates and format of the 2026 World Cup (link)
- Reuters, via Y94 – report on the analysis of heat risk at the 2026 World Cup and reactions from FIFPRO and FIFA (link)
- World Weather Attribution – analysis of the impact of climate change on heat stress during the 2026 World Cup (link)
- National Weather Service – explanation of WBGT and tools for assessing heat risk (link)
- Sports Medicine / Springer Nature – scientific review of environmental challenges for players at the 2026 World Cup (link)