Group G of the 2026 World Cup: Belgium the favourite, Egypt and Iran fight for progression, New Zealand seeks a surprise
Group G of the 2026 FIFA World Cup brings together four national teams with different football profiles: Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. According to FIFA's announcement on Group G, this is a group in which Belgium enters as the biggest name and the team with the highest expectations, while Egypt, Iran and New Zealand will look for a path to the knockout stage. The tournament will be played in a new format with 48 national teams, and precisely because of that, calculations in the groups are no longer the same as at earlier World Cups. According to the format rules published by FIFA, the two best national teams from each of the 12 groups advance, along with the eight best third-placed teams. This means that in a group like this one, even third place does not necessarily have to mean the end of the competition, so every point, goal difference and disciplinary detail could have significantly greater value than in the old format.
At first glance, Belgium has the clearest path toward the top of the group. Still, the conclusion that this is a simple task would be premature. The Belgian national team is no longer the side that, at the peak of the so-called golden generation, was for years among the main favourites at major tournaments, but it still has player quality, continuity of appearances at World Cups and experience in matches against opponents of different styles. Egypt brings into the group a combination of physical discipline, tactical patience and attacking class, Iran has in recent years been recognisable for firm organisation and the ability to force opponents into matches with a small number of chances, while New Zealand arrives with less public pressure and with a clear motivation to take advantage of the new, wider competition format.
The new format changes the calculations in the group
The 2026 World Cup, jointly organised by the United States of America, Canada and Mexico, is the first edition of the tournament with 48 national teams. FIFA has announced that the teams will be divided into 12 groups of four teams, after which the round of 32 follows, a new stage with 32 national teams. For Group G, this has a direct consequence: Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand will not be fighting only for the first two places, because the third-placed team will probably also retain realistic hope of continuing the tournament if it collects enough points compared with the third-placed teams from other groups. Such a format reduces the likelihood that teams will open up completely early, but increases the importance of matches against direct competitors.
In practice, this means that the threshold for progression could depend on very small differences. A national team that wins four points has a strong basis for continuing the competition, while three points may be enough only with a favourable goal difference and results in other groups. Because of that, defeats by a narrow margin, avoided cards and every goal scored will carry additional weight. According to FIFA's explanation of the format, eight of the twelve third-placed national teams will join the group winners and runners-up in the knockout stage.
Belgium still has the most quality, but is seeking new stability
According to FIFA's presentation of the group, Belgium will appear at the 2026 World Cup for the fifteenth time, and the national team is led by Rudi Garcia. Belgium's goal will be to make a significantly better impression than at tournaments where there was talk of the end of one generation, but also to confirm that the team, even after changes in the squad, remains among the serious European national teams. In its group preview, FIFA recalls that Belgium finished third in 2018, which is the best result in the national team's history at World Cups. That success still carries weight, but at the same time it creates a comparison with a period in which Belgium had an exceptional concentration of top players in the best years of their careers.
Belgium's advantage in Group G is primarily in the depth of the squad and greater experience in matches in which it is expected to take the initiative. Against Egypt and Iran it could have more possession, but that will not automatically mean control of the result. Both national teams know how to defend in a compact block and wait for opponents' mistakes. That is why it will be crucial for Belgium how quickly it can find rhythm in the final third of the pitch.
According to the current FIFA ranking, Belgium is positioned significantly above the other national teams from Group G, confirming its status as favourite. Still, the ranking is not a guarantee of tournament success. World Cups often reward teams that adapt quickly to conditions, the rhythm of travel and psychological pressure, and punish favourites that enter the tournament slowly. Belgium's opener against Egypt could therefore be decisive for calm in the rest of the group, especially because already in the second round it meets Iran, a national team that traditionally does not offer much space for an easy victory.
Egypt counts on experience and attacking quality
Egypt enters the group as a national team with a strong football identity and clear ambitions. In the initial hierarchy of expectations, the Egyptian team stands out as one of the main candidates for second place, and such an assessment is grounded in a combination of experience, defensive discipline and individual quality in attack. Egypt is not a team that will necessarily try to outplay Belgium in an open rhythm, but it can be very dangerous if it reduces the match to periods of patient defending, quick breaks and set pieces. In a group in which goal difference could decide third place, the ability to avoid heavy defeats will be almost as important as the ability to beat a direct competitor.
The matches against Iran and New Zealand will carry particular weight for Egypt. Against Iran, the match could be played with a high level of tactical caution, because both national teams know how much a defeat in a direct duel can complicate the path toward second place. Against New Zealand, Egypt will probably have the role of the team expected to win, which is often a different challenge from matches in which it defends against a stronger opponent. Such encounters require patience and precision, especially if the outsider keeps the initial score for a long time.
FIFA's announcement confirms that Egypt is part of Group G together with Belgium, Iran and New Zealand, and the schedule places it in a position where the final meeting with Iran could prove to be a direct duel for qualification. If Belgium justifies the role of favourite, Egypt will look most toward the matches in which it can collect points against opponents of a more similar level. In such a scenario, every goal against New Zealand and every point won against Iran can decide whether the Egyptian national team continues the competition or depends on results from other groups.
Iran remains an awkward opponent suited to closed matches
Iran is one of the most awkward opponents in Group G for teams that like to have the ball and search for space through the middle. According to an Associated Press report on the preparations of the Iranian national team, Iran will play at the 2026 World Cup in its fourth consecutive and seventh overall appearance at World Cups, and it has so far not progressed beyond the first round. Precisely that fact gives additional weight to the new format: a national team that previously often fell just short of progression now has a wider opportunity to qualify if it remains competitive through all three rounds. For Iran, that could mean that a point against Belgium or Egypt is very valuable, and a win over New Zealand potentially a foundation for continuing the competition.
The Associated Press also reported that the Iranian federation, with FIFA's approval, moved the national team's base from Tucson, Arizona, to Tijuana, Mexico. According to statements by the president of the Iranian Football Federation, Mehdi Taj, carried by AP, the reason is security circumstances connected with instability in the Middle East and possible visa issues. That logistical detail is important because it shows that Iran's preparation for the tournament does not include only sporting matters, but also a political and administrative context that can affect travel, the base and the everyday rhythm of the national team. Still, according to the same report, the change of base was approved ahead of the tournament and is connected with the proximity of Inglewood, where Iran plays two matches in the group.
On the pitch, Iran will probably try to impose low-risk matches. Against New Zealand, expectations will be highest, because a win at the start would dramatically change the team's position before the meeting with Belgium. Against Belgium, Iran could rely on a block, set pieces and transition, while the final match with Egypt could be one of the key matches of the group. If both national teams are still in contention for second or third place by then, the duel in Seattle could have the character of an elimination match even before the knockout stage.
New Zealand does not have great pressure, but it has a clear opportunity
New Zealand enters Group G as the outsider, but precisely because of that it can play without the burden of expectations that will follow Belgium, Egypt and Iran. The original text emphasised that New Zealand arrives without great pressure, and in the new format that is not an insignificant circumstance. A national team that has the fewest chances on paper can build a tournament on one solid match, one surprise or a result that fits into the battle among third-placed teams. If New Zealand avoids a heavy defeat in the first rounds, the final phase of the group could leave it with an open path toward a historically important result.
The most important match for New Zealand is probably the first one, against Iran. In a meeting with a national team that is tactically disciplined but does not necessarily have to take full risks from the first minute, New Zealand could seek its chance through endurance, organisation and set pieces. If it remains unbeaten, the pressure shifts to Iran, and New Zealand gains additional room for the match against Egypt. If it loses, especially by a larger margin, the path toward third place becomes significantly more difficult.
The Group G schedule puts the focus on the west coast
According to the published schedule of Group G matches, the games are played at three stadiums: Lumen Field in Seattle, SoFi Stadium in Inglewood near Los Angeles and BC Place in Vancouver. The group begins on 15 June 2026 with the matches between Belgium and Egypt in Seattle and Iran and New Zealand in Inglewood. The second round is played on 21 June, when Belgium meets Iran in Inglewood, and New Zealand faces Egypt in Vancouver. The final round is scheduled for 26 June, when Egypt against Iran in Seattle and New Zealand against Belgium in Vancouver are played simultaneously. For fans planning to follow matches on the west coast, practical information on travel and accommodation near the match venues may be important because of the distances between the cities and the expected increase in interest during the tournament.
Such a schedule brings a relatively clear sporting rhythm. Belgium immediately plays against Egypt, which means that the group favourite meets one of the main candidates for second place right at the start. Iran and New Zealand open against each other, in a match in which a defeat could have major consequences because both teams know that difficult duels then await them. The second round can separate the group: Belgium against Iran will seek confirmation of status, and Egypt against New Zealand points that could be decisive for qualification. The third round closes the group in the most dramatic way, because Egypt and Iran may collide directly for second place, while New Zealand against Belgium can try to catch a result valuable for the ranking of third-placed teams.
The biggest battle is expected behind Belgium
If the group is viewed through a combination of experience, squad quality and current status, Belgium remains the most logical candidate for first place. According to the FIFA ranking, Belgium is the best-ranked team in the group, ahead of Iran, Egypt and New Zealand. Such an order supports the impression that Belgium should control its own fate, but it does not remove the risks that accompany a national team in a transitional period after the peak of one generation. A Belgian failure in the first match would open the group to both Egypt and Iran, and give New Zealand additional hope that it can join the fight for third place.
Egypt and Iran look like the most likely candidates for second place, but their battle will probably be marked by different ways of reaching the same goal. Egypt could seek more attacking initiative against New Zealand and a balanced approach against Belgium and Iran. Iran will probably count on firm structure, discipline and matches in which the opponent finds it hard to fully open up. Precisely because of that, their mutual meeting in the final round could be crucial for the final picture of the group, and a possible draw could open the question of who collected the better goal difference in the first two rounds.
New Zealand, although an outsider, is not without a role in that calculation. If it takes a point from Iran or Egypt, it can directly change the balance of power behind Belgium. If, however, it loses all three matches, the question of second and third place will almost certainly be settled between Egypt and Iran, with Belgium's performance as an additional factor. In Group G, therefore, there is not much room for relaxation: the favourite has the most quality, but the other three national teams have clear scenarios in which they can remain alive until the final round.
What could decide the group
Group G could be decided by details that are often underestimated before a tournament. The first is effectiveness against closed defences. Belgium will have to show that it can break through disciplined blocks, while Egypt and Iran will have to prove that they can create enough chances in matches in which more than defending is expected from them. The second is goal difference, especially because of the possibility of third-placed teams progressing. A national team that loses to Belgium by a minimal margin and then beats one direct competitor can remain in a very good position.
According to the available information, Group G does not look like the toughest group of the tournament, but it has the potential for a very uncertain finish. Belgium has the most reasons to believe in first place, Egypt and Iran have enough quality for second, and New Zealand has the opportunity to take advantage of the wider format and less pressure. If the favourite does not confirm its role early, the group could become significantly more open than it seems at first glance.
Sources: - FIFA – official preview of Group G of the 2026 World Cup and overview of the national teams (link) - FIFA – explanation of the 2026 World Cup format with 48 national teams and the progression of eight third-placed teams (link) - FIFA / Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking – current official national team ranking used for the context of the balance of power (link) - Associated Press – report on Iran's training base, logistics and Iran's status in Group G (link) - The Sporting News – overview of the Group G match schedule and the stadiums where the matches are played (link)