Group I of the 2026 World Cup: France the favorite, Senegal and Norway threaten, Iraq seeks a surprise
Group I of the 2026 FIFA World Cup has a clear favorite, but no simple outcome. France enters the tournament as the biggest name in the group, a national team with two world titles and a consistent presence in the final stages of the biggest competitions. Still, Senegal and Norway are dangerous enough to turn any lapse in concentration into a problem, while Iraq, in the role of outsider, can look for its chance through discipline, set pieces and a match without great pressure. That is precisely why this group looks like one of the more interesting ones in the first round, especially because of the new competition system in which third place can also lead onward.
According to FIFA's official schedule, France, Senegal, Norway and Iraq will compete in Group I. The group begins on June 16, 2026, when France plays Senegal at the New York/New Jersey stadium, and Iraq plays Norway in Boston. The second round brings the matches France – Iraq and Norway – Senegal, while the group closes on June 26 with Senegal – Iraq in Toronto and Norway – France in Boston. Such a schedule means that France will immediately have the toughest psychological test, while Norway must already confirm its status as a serious candidate for advancement in the first round.
The 2026 World Cup is the first tournament with 48 national teams and 104 matches, which FIFA has described as the biggest edition of the competition so far. The teams are arranged into 12 groups of four, and the two best teams from each group as well as the eight best third-placed teams advance to the round of 32. That format changes the calculation of the first round: one point against the favorite or avoiding a heavy defeat can be decisive in the ranking of third-placed teams. For that reason, every match, every goal and every disciplinary detail will have value in Group I.
France has the most quality and the highest expectations
France is the team against which the ambitions of the others will be measured. It is a national team that won world titles in 1998 and 2018, and in 2022 played the final against Argentina. According to a UEFA report, France secured qualification for the 2026 World Cup as the winner of qualifying Group D after a 4:0 victory against Ukraine in November 2025. UEFA stated that Kylian Mbappé scored two goals in that match, while Michael Olise and Hugo Ekitiké also took part in the convincing victory of Didier Deschamps's team.
France's greatest advantage is not only in individual quality, but in the depth of the squad. A team that can change rhythm, take possession, play a high press or wait for space behind the opponent's defense has more solutions than most rivals. In a group in which Senegal can impose a firm duel rhythm, and Norway can punish every lost ball in a dangerous zone, tactical adaptability will be key. France will be the favorite in every match of the group, but favorite status will not guarantee it a calm passage.
The first meeting against Senegal carries additional symbolism. FIFA recalled in a historical overview that on May 31, 2002, in the opening match of the World Cup, Senegal defeated the then reigning world champion France 1:0 with a goal by Papa Bouba Diop. That result does not determine today's balance of power, but it gives the new duel a strong historical context. For France, the group opener will therefore also be a test of concentration: an early slip against the most uncomfortable opponent could significantly change the pressure in the continuation of the tournament.
Senegal is not only a physically powerful opponent
Senegal enters Group I with serious international experience. FIFA announced that the national team secured its fourth appearance at World Cups after winning Group B in African qualifying. This confirms the continuity of one of the most stable African selections of recent years, a national team that reached the quarterfinals in 2002 and advanced from the group in Qatar in 2022. Head coach Pape Thiaw, who as a player was part of the 2002 generation, now leads a team that wants more than an honorable role.
In May 2026, FIFA announced that Senegal had submitted a preliminary squad list for the tournament and emphasized that it would play in the group against France, Iraq and Norway. In such a schedule, Senegal cannot rely only on its reputation as a physically strong team. Against France it will need to withstand periods of pressure, against Norway control depth and set pieces, and against Iraq probably take more initiative. Such a variety of tasks requires maturity, patience and a clear balance between attacking ambition and defensive discipline.
The duel against Norway could be decisive for the standings behind France. If Senegal wins a point against France, the match with Norway can open the door to direct advancement. If it loses in the opener, the second meeting becomes a high-risk match, because a new defeat could leave the national team dependent on the final round and the ranking of third-placed teams. Senegal has enough strength and experience to withstand such pressure, but the group offers no room for slow warming up.
Norway returns after 28 years with an attack that changes the calculation
Norway is one of the most intriguing national teams in the group because it returns to the World Cup after 28 years of absence. FIFA announced that it secured qualification with a 4:1 victory against Italy in the final qualifying match and stated that Ståle Solbakken's team had previously won all seven matches of the qualifying cycle. The same report also highlighted Norway's 3:0 victory against Italy and 11:1 against Moldova. Such results do not guarantee success at the tournament, but they show that Norway arrives with a clear identity and great self-confidence.
Norway's attacking profile is almost impossible to separate from Erling Haaland. In a report on European qualifying, UEFA stated that Haaland, with two goals against Estonia, reached 14 goals in seven qualifying appearances. Alongside him, Martin Ødegaard gives the team creativity and the ability to find the final pass, while the rest of the squad enables more direct, vertical football. Because of that, Norway does not always have to have more possession to be dangerous; sometimes one won ball and a few meters of space behind the defense are enough.
Norway's biggest challenge will be to confirm its qualifying level under tournament conditions. Iraq will probably try to slow the rhythm and close the approaches to Haaland in the first round, Senegal can physically respond in duels, and France has players capable of defending large spaces behind the last line. Norway must therefore show that it is not only a team of one attacking pattern. If it beats Iraq already in the first round, it will play against Senegal with more calm; if it stumbles in the opener, the pressure will rise sharply.
Iraq has the least famous names, but can complicate the group
Iraq is the most modest member of the group by international status, but its role can be important. FIFA's qualification center for the Asian zone highlighted Iraq's dramatic path through qualifying, including a late penalty in a 2:1 victory against the United Arab Emirates in Asian qualifying. For a national team that has found itself in a group with France, Senegal and Norway, the tournament is an opportunity to return to the big stage and to prove itself in matches in which it will not carry the burden of being the favorite.
Iraq will most likely seek its chance through compact defense, set pieces and patient transition. Against Norway it will have to avoid an early goal, because opening space for Haaland and his teammates could quickly change the match plan. Against France, concentration will have to last all 90 minutes, while against Senegal physical endurance and discipline could be decisive. In a format in which third-placed national teams remain in the race for advancement, even one point by an outsider can change the whole group.
The most important thing for Iraq will be to remain alive in terms of the result for as long as possible. Outsiders at major tournaments often get a chance when the favorite becomes nervous, when the match turns into a series of set pieces or when the first goal is awaited for a long time. If Iraq manages to keep a clean sheet in the opening periods of matches, every minute can increase the pressure on the opponent. That is precisely why France, Senegal and Norway must not view Iraq only as a match for improving goal difference.
The schedule and third place give the group additional weight
The schedule of Group I creates different types of pressure. France first plays the most demanding duel against Senegal, then against Iraq and finally against Norway. Senegal opens against the favorite, then plays a direct clash with Norway, and finishes the group against Iraq. Norway first has a match it must win on paper, but after that come Senegal and France. Iraq already at the start plays against a team that will want to confirm its status, and then France and Senegal await it.
In the expanded format, third place can be very valuable, but it does not bring certainty. Eight of the 12 third-placed national teams will continue the competition, while four will be eliminated. This means that points, goal difference, number of goals scored and additional criteria will be taken into account. In practice, a convincing defeat against the favorite can be just as damaging as a lost match against a direct competitor. For that reason, the national teams in Group I will have to think not only about victories, but also about damage control in matches in which the result turns bad.
For fans planning to travel to matches, Group I includes several cities on the eastern side of North America, among them New York/New Jersey, Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto. Because of distances, travel costs and demand for tickets, it will be important to follow FIFA's official information on the schedule, stadiums and ticket sales. When planning to attend matches, it may also be useful to check accommodation close to the venues of Group I matches. Such practical details do not affect the game, but they can significantly determine the spectators' experience at a tournament played in three countries.
The most important duels of the group
France – Senegal is the first big test and a meeting that can immediately shape the standings. With a victory, France gains calm before the match with Iraq, while Senegal, with a point or a victory, can completely change the tone of the group. The history from 2002 will further increase interest in that duel, but current quality, physical preparation and tactical discipline will decide. France will try to control the rhythm and avoid open transition, while Senegal will look for moments in which it can directly attack space.
Norway – Senegal could be the most important match for second place. Norway has attacking sharpness, Senegal has strength and experience, and both national teams have enough quality to hope for the knockout phase. In such matches, details often decide: defending set pieces, reaction after a lost ball, a goalkeeper's intervention or one mistake in build-up. If both national teams enter that meeting with a positive result from the first round, the duel could be one of the tensest in the entire group stage.
The final match Norway – France can carry different weight, depending on the previous results. France could then be playing for first place or confirmation of advancement, and Norway for direct advancement or a better position among the third-placed teams. For Norway, it would also be a test of the real level of its return to the world stage. For France, it could be the most dangerous tactical challenge of the group, because the Norwegian attack can punish even a very small drop in concentration.
Prediction: France first, a big battle behind it
The most realistic initial assessment puts France in first place. It has the greatest quality, the most experience and the deepest squad. Still, the battle behind it looks open. Senegal has continuity and competitive firmness, Norway has attacking power and strong qualifying momentum, and Iraq can become a national team that will complicate the standings with one result. In such a balance of power, second place could be decided in the direct duel between Senegal and Norway, but also through how efficient both national teams will be against Iraq.
Group I is therefore not only a story about French favoritism. It is also a test of the new World Cup format, in which calculations do not end at the first two places. A third-placed national team with enough points and an acceptable goal difference can extend its tournament, so every team will have to play to the end even in matches that seem lost on paper. France is the favorite, Senegal and Norway are the main challengers, and Iraq is the outsider with nothing to lose. It is precisely that combination that makes Group I one of the most interesting parts of the first round of the 2026 World Cup.
Sources:
- FIFA – official match schedule of the 2026 World Cup and stadium overview (link)
- FIFA – official page of the Senegal national team with Group I matches (link)
- UEFA – report on France's qualifying victory against Ukraine and qualification for the 2026 World Cup (link)
- FIFA – announcement of Senegal's qualification for the 2026 World Cup (link)
- FIFA – announcement of Norway's return to the World Cup after 28 years (link)
- FIFA – Asian qualification center and information on Iraq's path through qualifying (link)
- FIFA – historical overview of Senegal's victory against France in 2002 (link)