Four knockout-stage pairings are already known: USA goes up against Bosnia and Herzegovina, Australia awaits the runner-up from Group G
After the conclusion of Group D at the 2026 World Cup, four complete pairings of the first knockout round are known, while the remaining part of the bracket is still being filled through the final matches of Groups G, H, I, J, K and L. The official FIFA schedule confirms that, in the tournament’s new format, a round of 32 national teams is played after the groups, rather than going directly to the round of 16 as in previous editions. The two best national teams from each of the 12 groups advance automatically, while they are joined by the eight best third-placed teams. Because of that, some pairings can be calculated as soon as the final positions in the groups are known, while some remain open until the combined table of third-placed teams is finalized.
The key development after the matches played on 25 June local time, or during the night of 26 June according to Central European Summer Time, is the outcome of Group D. The United States of America remained first in the group despite a 3:2 defeat to Turkey, Australia took second place with a 0:0 draw against Paraguay, Paraguay finished third with four points and is awaiting official confirmation of advancement among the best third-placed teams, while Turkey was eliminated. This confirmed that the USA will play against Bosnia and Herzegovina in match number 81, while Australia, in match number 88, awaits the runner-up from Group G.
Fully known pairings of the first knockout round
FIFA’s official match schedule from numbers 73 to 88 has already determined the places in the bracket. When the completed groups are entered into that schedule, four pairings are fully known for now. These are duels that no longer depend on the mathematics of third-placed national teams or on the outcome of the remaining groups. The times are listed according to Central European Summer Time, so they are clear to readers following the tournament from the European time zone.
- Match 73: South Africa – Canada, 28 June at 21:00 CEST, Los Angeles Stadium. This is a duel between the runner-up of Group A and the runner-up of Group B.
- Match 76: Brazil – Japan, 29 June at 19:00 CEST, Houston Stadium. Brazil enters as the winner of Group C, and Japan as the runner-up from Group F.
- Match 75: Netherlands – Morocco, 30 June at 03:00 CEST, Estadio Monterrey. The Netherlands is the winner of Group F, and Morocco the runner-up in Group C.
- Match 81: USA – Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2 July at 02:00 CEST, San Francisco Bay Area Stadium. The USA is the winner of Group D, and Bosnia and Herzegovina comes in as the third-placed national team from Group B.
Associated Press listed exactly those pairings in its overview of the knockout stage as already formed: South Africa against Canada, Japan against Brazil, Morocco against the Netherlands, and the USA against Bosnia and Herzegovina. FIFA’s schedule further confirms why those pairings are locked in. Match 73 brings together the runners-up from Groups A and B, match 75 the winner of F with the runner-up of C, match 76 the winner of C with the runner-up of F, and match 81 the winner of D with one of the qualified third-placed teams from a predetermined group of possible opponents. After Bosnia and Herzegovina finished third in Group B and secured a place in that segment of the matrix, the USA’s opponent was no longer an open question.
How Group D changed the bracket
Group D ended with an outcome that simultaneously confirmed the top spot, second place and the elimination of the last national team. ESPN’s updated table for the World Cup shows the USA with three matches played, two wins, one defeat, eight goals scored and four conceded, and six points. Australia and Paraguay finished the group with four points each, but Australia had the better goal difference and therefore took second place. Turkey remained on three points after three matches, which was not enough to continue the competition.
The Turkey – USA match ended 3:2 for Turkey, but it did not change the American first place because the USA had already beaten Paraguay and Australia earlier. Associated Press reported that Kaan Ayhan scored the decisive goal in the eighth minute of stoppage time, after Can Uzun found space at the far post and sent the ball toward the scorer. The USA took the lead in the third minute through Auston Trusty, Turkey turned it around with goals from Arda Güler and Orkun Kökçü, and Sebastian Berhalter equalized at the beginning of the second half. Christian Pulisic entered the game in the 58th minute after a calf problem that had kept him out since the opening of the American campaign at the tournament.
The other Group D match ended without goals, but it had major consequences for the standings. Associated Press reported that the draw between Paraguay and Australia in Santa Clara confirmed Australia’s passage into the knockout round, while Paraguay remained in a good position among the third-placed teams. A point was enough for Australia to take second place because of the better goal difference. Paraguay, with the same number of points, dropped to third position and must wait for the final table of third-placed national teams. Turkey, although it defeated the group host, remained last because it had lost to Australia and Paraguay in the first two matches.
State of Group D after three rounds
The final calculation of Group D is now simple and does not depend on other matches when it comes to the first two places. The USA finished first and goes up against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Australia is second and goes up against the runner-up team from Group G. Paraguay is third with four points, which is a very strong result in a format with eight qualifying third places, but final confirmation depends on how many third-placed national teams from the remaining groups finish with a better record. Turkey is fourth and has ended its campaign.
- USA – first place in Group D; the next match is against Bosnia and Herzegovina at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium.
- Australia – second place in Group D; the next match is against the runner-up national team from Group G in Dallas.
- Paraguay – third place in Group D; has four points and awaits final confirmation of placement among the eight best third-placed teams.
- Turkey – fourth place in Group D; victory over the USA was not enough to continue the competition.
This outcome shows how sensitive the new format is to goal difference and the ranking of third-placed teams. Australia did not have to beat Paraguay in order to finish second because the draw preserved its advantage in goal difference. Paraguay avoided defeat with the same result and reached four points, which leaves it close to advancement, but does not make its status equal to the national teams that are already mathematically safe. Turkey achieved the group’s loudest individual result in the final round, but the standings were built through all three rounds, not only through the last meeting.
What is now certain for the USA and Bosnia and Herzegovina
The USA will enter the round of 32 as the winner of Group D and with the advantage of not having to leave the west coast of North America before the first elimination match. Associated Press states that the duel against Bosnia and Herzegovina will be played on 1 July local time in Santa Clara, or 2 July at 02:00 CEST. The American national team showed attacking breadth in the group, but the defeat to Turkey also opened the question of defensive stability. It is particularly important that Pulisic returned to play, because he is one of the key players in the final third and in transition.
Bosnia and Herzegovina enters that match as the third-placed team from Group B. ESPN’s report on the match against Qatar records a 3:1 victory in Seattle, with a goal by Kerim Alajbegović in the 29th minute, an own goal by a Qatari player after which the lead was increased, a reduction through Hassan Al-Haydos and the final goal by Ermin Mahmić in the 80th minute. That result was decisive for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s position among the third-placed teams. In a broader sense, it is a significant step forward for a national team that previously appeared at the World Cup in 2014, but did not play in the knockout stage.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the match against the USA carries both sporting and symbolic significance. The opponent is one of the tournament hosts, but also a team that will feel great pressure of expectations in the elimination phase. The Bosnia and Herzegovina national team showed in the group that it can survive demanding phases of matches and make use of moments of individual quality. In the knockout format, that is especially important because there is no longer room for correction.
Australia knows the place, but not the opponent
Australia secured its third qualification for the knockout stage of the World Cup with the draw against Paraguay, after appearances in the elimination rounds in 2006 and 2022. Associated Press stated that Australia will play match number 88 in Arlington in the state of Texas, in the wider Dallas area, against the runner-up national team from Group G. FIFA’s schedule lists that match as a duel between the runner-up team from Group D and the runner-up team from Group G. The opponent’s name will be known only after the Egypt – Iran and New Zealand – Belgium matches, which close Group G.
For Australia, it is important that the status of runner-up brings a clearer preparation rhythm. The team knows the date, stadium and part of the tactical framework, but still does not know the opponent’s profile. Therefore, the Australian staff will have to prepare several scenarios until the conclusion of Group G. The draw with Paraguay was not attractive, but it fulfilled the basic objective: third place and waiting for the final table of third-placed teams were avoided.
Paraguay’s position is different from Australia’s. Four points mean that the national team has a realistic chance to continue the tournament, but it still has no confirmed date, stadium or opponent. AP stated that Paraguay is in a good position, but that it must wait for the outcome of the remaining groups. In practice, that means Paraguay’s preparation is taking place under conditions of uncertainty: the team must remain competitively ready, but cannot know whether and where it will play until all third-placed teams are compared. In the new format, this is one of the most important differences between second and third place.
Which pairings still cannot be finalized
FIFA’s schedule clearly determines all slots of the first knockout round, but several matches still do not have final names. Germany is in match 74 in the role of Group E winner and awaits the third-placed national team from Groups A, B, C, D or F. The winner of Group I will play match 77 against the third-placed team from Groups C, D, F, G or H. Ivory Coast, in match 78, awaits the runner-up national team from Group I. Mexico, in match 79, awaits the third-placed team from Groups C, E, F, H or I.
Match 80 belongs to the winner of Group L, which awaits the third-placed national team from Groups E, H, I, J or K. Match 82 pairs the winner of Group G with the third-placed national team from Groups A, E, H, I or J. Match 83 is already structurally clear, but not by name: the runner-up from Group K against the runner-up from Group L. Match 84 pairs the winner of Group H and the runner-up from Group J. Match 85 belongs to the winner of Group B against the third-placed team from Groups E, F, G, I or J. Match 86 pairs the winner of Group J and the runner-up national team from Group H. Match 87 brings the winner of Group K against the third-placed national team from Groups D, E, I, J or L. Match 88, now important for Australia, pairs the runners-up from Groups D and G.
This schedule means that part of the bracket can be calculated from the final tables, without relying on anyone’s interpretation. When it is known who is first, second or third in a particular group, FIFA’s slot immediately shows where that national team goes, except with third-placed teams, where the final distribution depends on which eight groups provide qualifiers. That is why pairings with third-placed teams close only after all relevant matches have finished.
Why third-placed teams still complicate the picture
The new format with 48 national teams brings a larger knockout stage, but also a more complex conclusion to the group stage. FIFA’s system allows eight of the 12 third-placed national teams to advance. The ranking of third-placed teams is calculated first according to points, then according to goal difference, number of goals scored and additional criteria if necessary. This means that a national team that has finished its group does not have to know its fate immediately, because it depends on the results of groups played later. That is exactly why Paraguay, although it has four points, is awaiting formal confirmation.
Such a system also changes the behavior of teams in the third round. National teams that know one point is enough for them often play more cautiously, while those with three points must assess whether it is worth taking risks. The Paraguay – Australia match showed that dynamic very clearly: for Australia, a draw brought second place, and for Paraguay, four points and a good position. In such circumstances, the 0:0 result is not only an absence of goals, but also a product of tournament mathematics.
For viewers, this means the knockout-stage picture is not filled in linearly. It is not enough to follow only group winners; third-placed teams, their goal difference and their number of goals scored are just as important. National teams such as the USA, Brazil, the Netherlands and South Africa already know their opponents. Australia knows its position, but not the name of its opponent. Paraguay knows that it has done a lot, but is still awaiting official confirmation. The remaining groups will decide not only their own travelers but also how the remaining third-placed teams will be distributed across the predetermined FIFA slots.
What follows on 26 and 27 June
FIFA’s schedule for 26 June includes the final matches of Groups G, H and I: Egypt – Iran, New Zealand – Belgium, Cape Verde – Saudi Arabia, Uruguay – Spain, Norway – France and Senegal – Iraq. These meetings decide Australia’s opponent, the winner and runner-up in Group I, and part of the candidates for third places. The following day, the final matches of Groups J, K and L are played: Algeria – Austria, Jordan – Argentina, Colombia – Portugal, DR Congo – Uzbekistan, Panama – England and Croatia – Ghana. After those matches, it will be possible to close the entire round of 32.
Most important for the current picture is that there is no more uncertainty in Group D. The USA is first and goes up against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Australia is second and awaits the runner-up from Group G. Paraguay remains third with four points and very good prospects, but without an officially finalized place at the moment of this calculation. Turkey has ended the tournament, although it defeated the USA in the final round. The first knockout round has thus gained another major pairing, but the complete picture will wait for the final whistle in the remaining groups.
Sources:
- FIFA – official match schedule of the 2026 World Cup, including round-of-32 slots and the schedule of the remaining groups (link)
- FIFA – official tables and group standings at the 2026 World Cup (link)
- Associated Press – overview of the formed knockout-stage pairings and confirmation of the USA – Bosnia and Herzegovina match (link)
- Associated Press – report from the Turkey – USA 3:2 match and details of the conclusion of Group D (link)
- Associated Press – report from the Paraguay – Australia 0:0 match and confirmation of Australia’s advancement (link)
- ESPN – updated table of the 2026 World Cup and group standings, including the final record of Group D (link)
- ESPN – report and match record of Bosnia and Herzegovina – Qatar 3:1 in Group B (link)