Travel demand is shifting: the Middle East is losing momentum, the Mediterranean is strengthening again
Global tourism demand continues to grow, but its direction is changing rapidly in spring 2026. The latest indicators from aviation and tourism analytics suggest that travelers are not giving up on travel, but are increasingly adjusting destinations because of security perceptions, airspace closures, more expensive jet fuel and uncertainty around long-haul connections. According to Skift’s Travel Health Index, the global travel index in March 2026 stood at 101, meaning slight growth of one percent compared with a year earlier, but that average conceals large regional differences. The sharpest decline is being recorded in the Middle East, while part of demand is spilling over toward the Mediterranean, especially toward Spain, Italy and Morocco. A similar shift is also seen in data from Mabrian by Data Appeal, which analyzed millions of flight searches after the start of a new wave of military operations in the region at the end of February 2026.
Global growth remains positive, but is no longer evenly distributed
According to the International Air Transport Association, total demand for passenger air traffic in March 2026 rose by 2.1 percent compared with March 2025, measured in revenue passenger kilometers. IATA simultaneously states that total capacity fell by 1.7 percent, while the load factor reached 83.6 percent. At first glance, this is a continuation of the recovery and growth of global air traffic, but international demand fell by 0.6 percent, for the first time since March 2021, and that decline, according to IATA, is almost entirely connected with a major disruption in the traffic of Middle Eastern carriers.
IATA announced that the international traffic of carriers based in the Middle East fell by 60.8 percent year on year in March, while their capacity was reduced by 56.9 percent. Overall by region, the Middle East recorded a decline in total demand of 58.6 percent and a decline in capacity of 54.7 percent in March. IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated that demand for air travel continued to grow despite disruptions, but that the nearly 61-percent drop in international traffic by Middle Eastern carriers limited global growth to 2.1 percent. IATA also emphasizes that outside the Middle East, demand rose by eight percent, which shows that the market did not stop, but rearranged itself.
Airspace closures changed passenger flows
According to Skift, the latest turn is especially visible because the Middle East entered 2026 as one of the strongest markets, and then experienced a sharp reversal within several weeks. Skift states that airspace closures in the Gulf, connected with the U.S.-Iranian conflict, led to a strong reduction in regional airline capacity. IATA in its report also directly connects the decline in traffic by Middle Eastern carriers with the closure of a large part of the airspace in the region because of the war involving the U.S., Israel and Iran. The consequence is not only a smaller number of trips to destinations in the Middle East, but also a change in routes between Europe and Asia, because part of the traffic is being redirected to more direct or alternative connections that bypass regional hubs.
European carriers, according to IATA, recorded growth in international demand of 7.7 percent in March 2026, while traffic between Europe and Asia rose by 29.3 percent because direct routes partly replaced traffic that previously passed through Middle Eastern transit hubs. That figure shows that geopolitical risk affects not only tourist arrivals in individual countries, but also the architecture of global air traffic itself. Large hubs in the Gulf have for years had an important role in connecting Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia, so disruptions in that region quickly create effects in distant markets as well.
The Mediterranean is taking over part of short-term demand
Mabrian by Data Appeal announced that international travel intent toward countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council declined after February 28, 2026, when, according to that analysis, military operations began that increased instability in the region. The analysis included flight searches from February 28 to March 14, 2026, for travel in the following three months to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait, but also to Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Morocco, Turkey and Egypt. According to Mabrian, the largest negative shift in the share of searches among Gulf destinations was recorded by the United Arab Emirates, with a decline of 1.6 percentage points compared with the same period in 2025, while a decline is also visible for Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Oman recorded a more moderate decline, while Saudi Arabia was an exception with slight growth of 0.2 percentage points, which Mabrian partly connected with the seasonal effect of the end of Ramadan.
In the same period, the southern Mediterranean is benefiting from the change in travel intentions. Mabrian states that Spain leads the growth with an increase in the share of searches of 0.4 percentage points, while Italy and Morocco recorded moderate growth, and France and Greece more modest gains. In practice, this means that some travelers who, in circumstances of increased uncertainty, postpone or change plans for Gulf destinations choose destinations they perceive as more accessible, more stable or logistically simpler. Such a shift is especially important ahead of the summer season, because Mediterranean destinations are already entering a period of traditionally strong demand, and additional interest can increase pressure on airline capacity, hotel accommodation and local infrastructure.
Security perception is becoming a key decision factor
Mabrian in its analysis emphasizes the role of security perception in shaping traveler confidence. According to Carlos Cendra, director of marketing and communications at Mabrian, the perception of security has continued to deteriorate among Gulf countries since the outbreak of armed conflict in the Middle East. Destinations closest to the conflict area, according to that analytics company, recorded the largest declines and the greatest volatility in the security perception index. Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait, Mabrian states, face the greatest challenges in returning to pre-crisis levels, while the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia show greater resilience and a more stable trend.
Qatar, according to the same analysis, began to stabilize at the beginning of March after a sharp decline at the beginning of the crisis. Mabrian also warns of the spillover of security perception toward destinations that are not directly part of the Gulf area, but which in the eyes of travelers are located in the wider zone of influence of the Middle East. In that context, Jordan, Turkey and Egypt are mentioned, although the data are not the same for all. Turkey, according to Mabrian, remained below last year’s level of travel intent, with a moderate decrease of 0.5 percentage points, while Egypt, after a short decline, showed a strong recovery and growth of 0.5 percentage points.
Europe is showing resilience for now
The European Travel Commission, according to a report carried by Hospitality Net, estimates that international arrivals in Europe in the early part of 2026 rose by 5.6 percent, while overnight stays rose by 5.5 percent compared with the same period in 2025. These data mostly refer to destinations that had submitted results for January and February by the time of the report, so they should be viewed as an early indicator, not as the final picture of the season. ETC states that demand remained strong outside the main season, with growth led by northern and winter destinations. Ireland, Finland, Italy and Austria were highlighted among the markets that achieved good results, partly because of business travel, the ski season and additional momentum connected with the Winter Olympic Games in Italy.
The same source states that the direct impact of the Middle Eastern conflict on Europe is so far limited, primarily because of its reputation for safety and strong intra-European demand. But European tourism is not isolated from the wider environment. Higher fuel costs, changes in air corridors and uncertainty around long-haul flights can spill over into prices, route availability and passenger behavior. If part of demand moves toward the Mediterranean for a longer period, destinations that already have problems with peak loads could feel additional pressure in the main season, especially in cities and coastal areas that have for years faced debates about the sustainability of tourism.
Fuel prices and airline tickets remain a risk for the season
One of the important risks for summer 2026 is the price of jet fuel. The Guardian reported on May 14, 2026, that Willie Walsh warned that increases in airline ticket prices in Europe during the peak of the summer season were “inevitable” because of high jet fuel costs. According to his assessment, airlines can try to ease the pressure in the short term, but in the long term they cannot fully absorb additional costs. Walsh also said there was no need for panic over possible fuel shortages, but warned that, without sufficient alternative supply routes, the problem could become more serious in the months of highest demand.
IATA also warned in its March report that high jet fuel costs are increasingly being reflected in ticket prices, although at that moment they had not yet significantly affected March traffic or future bookings. The organization told regulators to be ready to allow a certain degree of flexibility to airlines regarding slots, given the extraordinary circumstances of restricted airspace and possible fuel rationing. For travelers, this means that two seemingly opposite phenomena may appear simultaneously in 2026: some prices may fall where demand is weaker, while on routes and dates with high costs and limited capacity, tickets may become more expensive.
Tourism companies must read changes in demand faster
The change in the direction of demand toward the Mediterranean does not mean that Middle Eastern tourism has lost its strategic importance in the long term. Gulf countries have invested heavily in recent years in aviation, hotel capacity, events, luxury tourism and major infrastructure projects. However, short-term demand is especially sensitive to security perception, flight availability and route stability. When travelers assess that planning is riskier, they more often choose destinations they consider more predictable, even if those were not their first choice. That is why declines in one region and growth in another can appear simultaneously in the same global cycle.
For Mediterranean destinations, growing interest brings an opportunity, but also challenges. A larger number of searches and bookings can increase revenues for airlines, hotels, private accommodation, hospitality and local services, but at the same time it can increase pressure on prices and infrastructure. In tourist centers that already record high seasonality, an additional wave of demand can raise questions of crowd management, labor, traffic, water supply and the relationship of tourism toward the local population. That is why it will be important for destinations not only to attract additional guests, but also to manage their distribution throughout the season, direct demand toward less burdened areas and communicate realistic travel conditions.
Travelers are not giving up for now, but are choosing more cautiously
The common message of the available indicators is that the global desire to travel has not disappeared. Skift’s index shows slight global growth, IATA records growth in total demand, and European data point to a solid start to the year. But behind those numbers stands a market that is more sensitive to risks and changes direction faster than in more stable periods. Travelers compare security signals, flight prices, route availability and the overall predictability of travel, so destinations that can offer clear logistics and a more stable perception have a short-term advantage.
In such an environment, the Middle East remains an important region for global tourism and air traffic, but in spring 2026 it bears the greatest burden of geopolitical disruption. The Mediterranean, especially Spain, Italy and Morocco, is currently taking over part of the demand that is moving away from riskier or logistically more complex directions. Further development of the season will depend on the security situation, fuel prices, airline capacity and the ability of destinations to turn growth into sustainable revenue, and not only into a short-term increase in the number of arrivals.
Sources:
- Skift – analysis of the change in global tourism demand and the Travel Health Index for March 2026. (link)
- International Air Transport Association (IATA) – report on global passenger demand in March 2026. (link)
- Mabrian by Data Appeal – analysis of the redirection of demand from the Middle East toward the southern Mediterranean. (link)
- Hospitality Net / European Travel Commission – data on the resilience of European tourism in the early part of 2026. (link)
- The Guardian – report on IATA warnings about jet fuel prices and possible effects on airline tickets. (link)