Southern Europe drives the growth of summer capacity in air traffic
Southern Europe is entering the 2026 summer season as the most important growth area in European air traffic. According to the latest analysis by OAG, international seat capacity in the ten largest Western European markets during summer 2026 is 3.6 percent higher than in summer 2025, which means an additional 18.5 million one-way seats. This growth is not evenly distributed across the continent: Spain, Italy and Greece together account for 72 percent of the total increase in the markets observed and add 13.4 million seats compared with the previous summer season.
The data confirm that the centre of European summer growth is still located in the Mediterranean. According to OAG Schedules Analyser, Spain is the largest of those three markets, with 88.7 million international one-way seats in the 2026 summer season, with annual growth of 7.6 percent. Italy, with 67.2 million seats, records the fastest growth among them, at 8.9 percent, while Greece reaches 30.1 million seats and grows by 5.9 percent. In practical terms, this means more flights, a wider choice of destinations and stronger competition on routes to Europe’s most sought-after tourist regions.
In its analysis, OAG states that the growth is particularly linked to low-cost and ultra-low-cost carriers, which are taking on a large share of the additional capacity in these markets. This pattern is not new, but in summer 2026 it is especially visible because the increase is not limited to one airline or one country. Growth is taking place simultaneously in Spain, Italy and Greece, with both the number of routes and the total number of seats offered expanding. For the European market, this is an important signal because it shows that demand for holidays, visits to family and friends and seasonal travel remains strong despite pressure on fuel prices, operating costs and airport capacity.
Spain remains the largest Southern European market
Spain is identified in OAG’s summer analysis as the largest Southern European market by international capacity. With 88.7 million one-way seats in summer 2026, it remains one of Europe’s key air markets, behind the United Kingdom, which has 103.1 million seats in the group of the ten largest Western European markets. OAG states that Spanish capacity increased by more than 6.3 million seats compared with summer 2025, making it one of the largest individual contributions to overall European growth.
Ryanair remains the leading carrier in Spain by capacity, with 20.7 million seats according to OAG data. It is followed by easyJet with 7.6 million, Vueling with 7.3 million and Iberia with 6.9 million seats. Wizz Air stands out in particular, with OAG reporting growth of 50.7 percent in the Spanish market, to 4.8 million seats. Jet2.com also continues to expand its offer in the leisure route segment, with growth of 8.9 percent and 4.5 million seats.
This structure shows that Spain is not growing only because of historically strong routes to major cities and tourist coasts, but also because of the expansion of networks by carriers that quickly redirect capacity towards markets with pronounced seasonal demand. OAG’s monthly data for May 2026 further confirm the weight of the Spanish market: Spain and the United Kingdom are listed as the largest European markets by total capacity, with 17.7 and 17 million seats respectively in May 2026. In the same data, OAG states that capacity in Spain in May rose by 5.1 percent compared with May 2025.
Italy has the fastest percentage growth among leading markets
According to OAG, Italy is the most dynamic of the three main Southern European markets in the 2026 summer season. International one-way capacity in Italy reaches 67.2 million seats, which is 8.9 percent more than in summer 2025. This growth is largely connected with the expansion of Wizz Air, which, according to OAG, added more than 2.2 million seats in Italy and increased capacity by about 35 percent. Wizz Air thereby reaches 8.6 million seats in the Italian market.
Ryanair still remains the largest carrier in Italy with 18.8 million seats, and it also records growth of 10.1 percent, OAG states. easyJet has 6.6 million seats, ITA Airways 3.1 million, and Lufthansa 1.8 million. This distribution shows the difference between carriers that are more aggressively expanding seasonal and regional networks and traditional carriers that generally maintain a more stable position in this part of the market. Italy does not rely only on the largest entry points, but also on a wider network of cities and tourist regions that attract international flights.
Additional context is provided by OAG data on new routes for summer 2026. According to that analysis, Europe has the largest growth in new routes in the world, with more than 400 new international routes. Within Europe, Italy ranks first by number of new routes, with 53 new routes, ahead of Spain with 45 and Germany with 44. OAG also states that around 70 percent of new European routes are concentrated in ten Western European countries, indicating that carriers are investing most where they assess the strongest demand and the quickest return of capacity.
Greece is growing more slowly than Italy and Spain, but remains an important demand generator
Greece is smaller than Spain and Italy by total international capacity, but its growth in summer 2026 remains significant. According to OAG, Greece has 30.1 million international one-way seats, which is 1.7 million more than in summer 2025 and represents growth of 5.9 percent. In a country where air traffic is strongly connected with tourism, island destinations and seasonal traffic, such an increase further strengthens the importance of air links in the economic model of the summer season.
Aegean Airlines holds first place in Greece with 3.9 million seats according to OAG data, followed by Ryanair with 3.7 million. easyJet has 2.7 million seats, Jet2.com 1.8 million, Wizz Air 1.2 million, and Sky Express 0.9 million. Although Aegean is the largest individual carrier, the fastest growth comes from companies expanding leisure and price-sensitive networks. OAG states that Wizz Air in Greece is growing by 41.6 percent, Jet2.com by 14.9 percent, and Sky Express by 21.5 percent.
Greece thereby fits into the broader pattern in which low-cost carriers and specialised leisure companies have an increasingly important role in distributing summer demand. This can bring greater accessibility to individual destinations, but also stronger pressure on airports, ground services and local infrastructure during the peak weeks of the season. In European air traffic, Mediterranean corridors are among the busiest during the summer, so additional capacity does not mean only a larger number of seats, but also the need for more efficient traffic management.
Low-cost carriers are taking over a large share of new capacity
In the three markets observed, the growth of low-cost and ultra-low-cost carriers is the most visible. OAG particularly highlights Wizz Air as the fastest-growing carrier in Spain, Italy and Greece, with growth of 50.7 percent in Spain, 41.6 percent in Greece and 35.1 percent in Italy. Ryanair meanwhile maintains leading positions in Spain and Italy and a very strong presence in Greece. easyJet and Jet2.com further strengthen the offer towards leisure markets, while national and traditional carriers are generally in more stable, less expansive positions.
This balance of power is important for understanding the market because low-cost carriers often react quickly to changes in demand, airport charges and aircraft availability. According to OAG, Wizz Air is adding 82 new routes in the five largest European markets in summer 2026, but at the same time is cutting 76 routes from summer 2025, which shows a high level of change in the network. Ryanair is adding 36 routes, but cutting 69 compared with the previous season. In other words, capacity growth does not mean that every existing route remains stable; carriers are increasingly moving aircraft to where they expect better load factors, lower costs or greater profitability.
OAG’s monthly data for May 2026 show that low-cost carrier capacity in Europe is growing by 4.9 percent compared with the previous year, while traditional carrier capacity is growing much more slowly, by 0.2 percent. Traditional carriers still hold the majority of the European market, with around 60 percent of capacity, but additional growth is increasingly found among companies that rely on high fleet utilisation, a simpler network and strong seasonal sales.
Broader European traffic is growing, but with large differences between countries
The growth of Southern European capacity should be viewed in the broader European environment. In its forecast for the 2025–2031 period, EUROCONTROL states that European air traffic in 2026 should grow by 3.1 percent and reach 11.4 million flights. The same forecast highlights that the countries of south-western and south-eastern Europe are recording the highest growth rates and that, at the European level, annual traffic should return to 2019 levels, with significant differences from country to country. EUROCONTROL also warns that the forecast remains exposed to uncertainties, including geopolitical disruptions, economic shocks and challenges within the aviation industry itself.
In a separate part of the forecast, EUROCONTROL states that more moderate growth rates are expected for summer 2026 than in parts of 2025, but that sustainable demand for travel to Mediterranean countries remains one of the main drivers of growth. This is in line with OAG data showing that Spain, Italy and Greece carry the largest share of additional seats in the leading Western European markets. In other words, growth is not evenly distributed: while some large airports and markets are growing slowly or stagnating, Southern European leisure destinations continue to attract additional aircraft and new routes.
ACI Europe states in its market forecast that the post-pandemic recovery of European airports is normalising. According to that organisation, passenger traffic growth is slowing after a strong recovery, but passenger volume in 2026 should be 7.9 percent above the 2019 level. ACI Europe also warns about macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, capacity constraints and market maturity, which are factors that may limit the speed of further growth.
Demand is strong, but costs and operational risks remain important
The global context of air traffic in 2026 is not without risks. In its report for March 2026, IATA announced that total global demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, increased by 2.1 percent compared with March 2025, while total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, decreased by 1.7 percent. In Europe, according to IATA, demand in March rose by 7.5 percent and capacity by 3.3 percent, with a load factor of 82.1 percent. These data show that the European market is entering the period before summer with relatively strong demand, although the global picture is disrupted by traffic disturbances towards the Middle East.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh warned that high jet fuel costs and possible supply disruptions may affect ticket prices and airlines’ operational flexibility. According to IATA, summer is so far shaping up as a normal busy period, but airlines’ resilience is being tested by fuel prices, airspace restrictions and the need to adjust slots in exceptional circumstances. This is also important for Southern European markets, because a larger number of seats does not remove the risks of delays, more expensive operations or the redirection of capacity if cost conditions change.
In such an environment, capacity growth towards Spain, Italy and Greece has a dual meaning. On the one hand, it confirms strong demand for Mediterranean destinations and the willingness of carriers to invest further in those markets. On the other hand, it shows that the European summer season increasingly relies on precise fleet planning, crew availability, airport capacity and the ability to control costs. If demand is maintained, Southern Europe may have one of the strongest seasons in terms of air transport availability; if operational pressures intensify, it will be precisely the busiest summer routes that feel the consequences first.
The Mediterranean confirms its role as the main summer market
A comparison of data from OAG, EUROCONTROL, ACI Europe and IATA shows that the growth of summer air capacity in Europe is strongly concentrated in the south of the continent. Spain, Italy and Greece are not the only markets growing, but their combined weight in summer 2026 distinguishes them as the main drivers of the increase. The United Kingdom remains the largest Western European market by international capacity, Germany and France remain among the largest, and Portugal, the Netherlands and Switzerland record more stable movements. However, the largest number of additional seats in the analysed group comes precisely from the Mediterranean triangle of Spain, Italy and Greece.
For the passenger market, this means a wider choice of flights to destinations that have for years formed the backbone of European summer demand. For airports and local tourism systems, it means the need to manage a larger number of passengers in a relatively short period, especially at the peak of the season. For airlines, it is an opportunity for growth, but also a test of their ability to fill additional capacity at prices that cover higher operating costs. According to the available data, summer 2026 in European air traffic will not be marked by uniform expansion across the entire continent, but by the continuation of concentrated growth where seasonal demand is most pronounced.
Sources:
- OAG – analysis of summer capacity in Spain, Italy and Greece for 2026 (link)
- OAG – monthly data on the European aviation market for May 2026 (link)
- OAG – analysis of new air routes in the 2026 summer season (link)
- EUROCONTROL – air traffic forecast for the 2025–2031 period (link)
- ACI Europe – industry data and passenger traffic forecast for European airports (link)
- IATA – report on passenger demand in March 2026 (link)