The United States opened the World Cup with a victory that changes the tone of the debate, but not the hierarchy of favorites
The United States' 4:1 victory over Paraguay in Los Angeles gave the tournament host what it needed most ahead of the 2026 World Cup: a calm start, a convincing result and confirmation that Mauricio Pochettino's team has enough speed, energy and individual quality for a serious step forward. According to the report by the U.S. Soccer Federation, the United States took the lead in front of 70,492 spectators at Los Angeles Stadium through an own goal by Damián Bobadilla, and then Folarin Balogun, with two goals, and Gio Reyna in stoppage time confirmed the first American victory at the tournament. Paraguay reduced the deficit through Mauricio in the second half, but according to U.S. Soccer's official summary, the match remained under American control. Such a start rightly raises expectations, especially because the tournament is being played in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and the U.S. national team is playing a large part of the group in front of its own supporters.
Still, one convincing victory does not change the basic assessment of the balance of power. The United States now has a very good position in Group D, where, according to FIFA's schedule, Australia in Seattle and Turkey in Los Angeles still await it, but the road to the final stages of the World Cup in the new format means that it must overcome significantly more obstacles than in the older system with 32 national teams. FIFA expanded the tournament to 48 national teams for 2026, and after the group stage comes the round of 32, which increases the number of matches in which favorites can stumble, but also the number of duels that a title contender must survive. That is precisely why the United States looks more dangerous after the opening than before the tournament, but it still does not belong to the same tier of assessed strength as national teams that have been winning medals for years, playing finals and regularly winning in the knockout stage.
What works in the Americans' favor
The biggest American asset at the moment is the combination of a home environment and a generation that has long been announced as the most talented in the national team's recent history. Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Gio Reyna, Folarin Balogun and a number of players from strong European leagues give the United States the profile of a team that no longer depends only on discipline, physical preparation and transition. In the match against Paraguay, it was clear that the U.S. national team can press the opponent, move the ball forward quickly and punish space behind the defense. According to the U.S. Soccer report, the United States had 16 shots on goal and allowed Paraguay only one shot on target, which is a statistical indicator of dominance, not only of the result.
The second important factor is the host's psychology. The U.S. national team is playing in stadiums where it will have strong support and a logistical advantage, and after the 4:1 victory, the pressure of opening the tournament was turned into confidence. In modern tournament football, early momentum often means a great deal: a team that secures points early can better manage minutes, injuries and the rhythm of the group. Pochettino's team also has depth in attack, so opponents cannot direct all their attention only toward Pulisic. Balogun's performance against Paraguay is especially important because the United States often had a problem with the efficiency of classic strikers at previous major tournaments.
The third argument in favor of the United States is the format. The two best national teams in each group advance, along with the eight best third-placed teams, which gives stronger hosts more room to survive a bad day. If the United States wins Group D, according to FIFA's competition bracket it could open up a more favorable first knockout obstacle, and that is a big difference in a tournament like this. But that argument also has another side: the closer the tournament gets to the final stages, the more the importance of the home atmosphere decreases, while the importance of experience in matches decided by one mistake, one set piece or one penalty shootout increases.
Why the United States still trails the main title contenders
Despite the convincing start, the United States does not have the same amount of evidence in the final stages of major competitions as Argentina, France, Spain, Germany or Croatia. The FIFA ranking published on June 11, 2026 placed Argentina in first place, Spain in second, France in third, while Germany and Croatia entered the top or stood immediately next to the top of the elite circle. On the same ranking, the United States was seventeenth, which does not mean it has no chance, but it shows that even according to the official standings there is a difference between a good host and national teams that have long been at the very top of international football. In addition, a review of market assessments published ahead of the start of the tournament placed Spain and France ahead of the others, while the United States and Croatia were in the broader circle of contenders, but not at the very top of betting expectations.
A world championship title is usually not won only by attacking inspiration in the group stage. A team must get through different styles: opponents who defend deep, national teams that dominate possession, physically strong opponents from set pieces and favorites who punish every mistake in the knockout stage. The United States currently has speed, intensity and atmosphere, but it still has to show whether it can control a match against an opponent that will have equal or greater individual quality. Defensive stability will be watched especially closely, because in matches against the biggest national teams, details that remain hidden in the group stage by a convincing victory are often decisive.
That is precisely why the realistic assessment is that the United States can be one of the most troublesome hosts of the tournament, but not the main favorite for the trophy. Its road to the title would probably include eliminating several national teams from the world elite, and that is a different task from getting through the group or one inspired knockout match. Home soil can help with rhythm, energy and emotional charge, but it cannot by itself replace the experience of finals, squad depth and the habit of winning in moments when a match becomes closed and tense.
Croatia has an argument that is not only form, but tournament history
Croatia does not stand out in the discussion about favorites because of market size, population or the status of the most expensive national team, but because of the continuity of major results. UEFA, in its guide to the 2026 World Cup, emphasizes that Croatia was a finalist in 2018 and won bronze in 2022, which is a rare sequence for any national team in modern football. These are results that change the way a team is assessed: Croatia is no longer a likable outsider, but a national team that must be credited with the ability to stay alive in high-pressure matches, find a way to turn things around and endure extra time or penalties.
According to HNS data, Croatia is in Group L together with England, Panama and Ghana, and it plays its first match against England on June 17 in Dallas. That opening will immediately give a clearer picture of the true reach of Zlatko Dalić's team. HNS reported Dalić's assessment that the group is "one of the most difficult" at the tournament, which is not merely a diplomatic formula: England is the fourth-ranked national team in the world according to the FIFA ranking, Ghana has a tradition of solid performances at World Cups, and Panama is an opponent against whom the favorite must show seriousness and patience. Croatia therefore does not enter the tournament with an easy schedule, but precisely such groups often suit teams that know how to compete from the first minute.
Croatia's key argument remains tournament maturity. Dalić's national team showed in the previous two World Cup cycles that it can survive periods of weaker play, withstand the pressure of the result and remain calm when the opponent has greater possession or a stronger physical rhythm. The comparison with the United States is therefore not only a comparison of player profiles, but also a comparison of evidence. The United States has momentum, home soil and a generation that wants to change its own limits. Croatia has experience in matches in which it has already toppled national teams with larger budgets, larger player pools and greater expectations.
France, Spain, Argentina and Germany remain the benchmark
France, Spain, Argentina and Germany are a different type of obstacle from Paraguay or most opponents from Group D. Argentina enters the tournament as the reigning world champion and the top national team in the FIFA ranking, which gives it a clear combination of status and recent success. Spain is second on the same ranking and, according to market assessments ahead of the start of the tournament, was among the most likely contenders for the title, primarily because of its technical quality, midfield depth and continuity after European successes. France remains one of the deepest national teams in the world, with a generation used to playing the final stages of major competitions. Germany, even when it does not look flawless, remains a national team whose tournament identity can never be reduced only to current form.
Compared with such teams, the United States must prove that it can repeat the intensity from the first match when there is an opponent on the other side that will not leave so much space. Big national teams in the knockout stage often slow the rhythm, force the opponent into long attacks and look for a mistake at the moment when energy drops. That is the environment in which the difference between a promising national team and a title contender is revealed. The victory against Paraguay shows that the United States can be dangerous, but it does not prove that it can beat two or three elite national teams in succession, which is usually necessary to win the World Cup.
Croatia belongs to that company in a different way from France or Argentina. It does not have the same depth as the greatest powers, but it has experience that often cancels out the difference in market value. That is why it is reasonable to consider it a serious candidate for a deep run in the tournament and a broader favorite, especially if it gets through the group without major physical expenditure. If it manages to take a positive result against England, assessments of its reach could change quickly, because Croatia often looks best at major competitions when it gets into rhythm and when the role of outsider turns into a psychological advantage.
The biggest American test is still ahead
The real answer to the question of whether the United States can attack the final stages will not be provided by the match against Paraguay, but by continuity through the next performances. Australia and Turkey offer different profiles of opponents: Australia traditionally brings physical discipline and endurance, while Turkey has technical quality and players capable of changing a match with an individual move. If the United States maintains control, avoids injuries to key players and confirms first place in the group, then it will be possible to speak of a serious platform for the knockout stage. If, however, problems appear in defensive transition or dependence on individual inspiration, the initial euphoria could quickly turn into caution.
For the U.S. national team, it is also important that public expectations can grow faster than the real indicators. A host that starts with a 4:1 victory almost automatically becomes a major story of the tournament, and in the host country every next performance carries additional media weight. That can be an advantage if the team remains calm, but also a burden if people start demanding a semifinal or final from it too early. Pochettino is a coach with experience working in big clubs, but a national-team tournament has a different dynamic: there are not many training sessions, there is not much time for corrections, and every injury or suspension can change the balance of the team.
The United States should therefore currently be viewed as a national team with realistic prospects for a good result, perhaps even for the biggest step forward in its modern history, but not as a team that has skipped the hierarchy of world football. Croatia, France, Spain, Argentina and Germany have stronger arguments when proven tournament experience, quality in the knockout stage and the ability to win against the very top are considered. The American victory against Paraguay deserves respect, but the World Cup is not won on the impression from the first round. The host has sent a serious warning, and now it must show whether it can turn that impression into a run of results against increasingly difficult opponents.
Sources:
- FIFA – official match schedule, competition format and data on the 2026 World Cup (link)
- FIFA – announcement on the FIFA/Coca-Cola ranking of national teams from June 11, 2026 and the standings of the leading national teams (link)
- FIFA – Croatia profile on the official FIFA/Coca-Cola ranking of national teams (link)
- FIFA – United States profile on the official FIFA/Coca-Cola ranking of national teams (link)
- U.S. Soccer – official match report for United States – Paraguay 4:1, scorers, statistics and schedule for the continuation of the group (link)
- Croatian Football Federation – Croatia's schedule, Group L status and current information on the national team (link)
- Croatian Football Federation – Zlatko Dalić's statement on Group L and Croatia's ambitions at the World Cup (link)
- UEFA – overview of Croatia at the 2026 World Cup, group, history and recent tournament results (link)
- Sports Illustrated – overview of market assessments and odds for winning the World Cup ahead of the start of the tournament (link)