Global pollution problem has reached alarming proportions, but new research published in the journal Science presents a comprehensive plan for its nearly complete removal by 2050. According to scientists from the University of California in Santa Barbara and their colleagues, without decisive intervention, plastic pollution could double by the middle of the century. Despite grim forecasts, the study offers solutions that could change the course of history and cleanse our planet of this scourge.

International efforts to address plastic pollution are focused on the United Nations global agreement, the finalization of which is planned at a meeting in Busan, South Korea, between November 25 and December 1, 2024. The key to success lies in implementing several key policies that could reduce plastic pollution by as much as 91%. However, the importance of this issue goes beyond the environmental sphere – plastic waste affects human health, economic stability, and social justice.

Growing Problem of Plastic Waste

Plastic has become an ubiquitous material in modern life, but its production and disposal create enormous challenges. According to data from 2021, as much as 68 million metric tons of plastic waste are not adequately managed. Imagine this amount of waste as 380,000 Boeing 747 airplanes – that’s the scale we are facing. Without changing current practices, it is predicted that plastic waste could cover Manhattan in a layer of plastic ten times thicker than the Empire State Building by 2050. This crisis requires urgent action to avoid catastrophic consequences for the environment and society.

Four Key Strategies to Reduce Plastic Pollution

The study identifies four key policies that can bring about significant change:

• Increase the share of recycled plastic in new products to at least 40%.


• Set an upper limit on new plastic production, restricting it to 2020 levels.


• Invest in waste management infrastructure, especially in low-income countries where problems are most acute.


• Introduce a small fee on plastic packaging to reduce unnecessary use.

Implementing these strategies would not only reduce plastic pollution but also lay the foundation for a more sustainable economic system. Special attention is given to social aspects – many vulnerable communities are most affected by plastic pollution, and such policies could provide them with fairer living conditions.

Innovative Tools for Decision-Making

To assist negotiators, the research team has developed a tool for predicting the effects of various policies – the Global Plastic Policy Tool. This tool uses artificial intelligence and detailed regional data to simulate possible outcomes related to plastic pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Negotiators can adjust parameters and analyze how different combinations of policies might impact the environment and society. This is the first time such a sophisticated tool is being used in global negotiations, representing a significant breakthrough in addressing this problem.

Impact of Plastic Pollution on Health and Environment

Plastic pollution is not just a visual problem; it has profound implications for health and the environment. Microplastics, found in air, water, and food, are linked to various health issues, including cardiovascular diseases, reproductive problems, and even cancers. Plastic pollution also has a devastating effect on marine life – from tiny plankton organisms to large marine mammals.

The impact on climate change is also significant. Plastic production generates large amounts of greenhouse gases, while burning plastic waste further pollutes the air. Addressing the plastic waste problem could contribute to global efforts to combat climate change by reducing emissions and protecting natural resources.

Potential for Global Cooperation

The agreement being prepared in Busan could become a historic turning point in global environmental efforts. However, its success will require cooperation from all UN member states, as well as the involvement of the private sector and non-governmental organizations. This approach requires multidisciplinary collaboration, from scientists to legislators, to achieve sustainable solutions.

Achieving the goals of this initiative would bring multiple benefits, from a cleaner environment to strengthening the economy through recycling and reducing waste management costs. In the long term, adopting these measures could ensure a future free of plastic pollution, thereby enhancing the quality of life worldwide.

Source: University of California