A draw between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar can also help Croatia in the fight for the knockout phase
After the defeat against England in Group L of the 2026 World Cup, Croatia entered a part of the tournament in which it no longer depends only on its own results, but also on the overall picture of the third-placed national teams. According to FIFA's official format for the first edition of the tournament with 48 participants, the two best national teams from each of the 12 groups and the eight best-ranked third-placed teams advance to the round of 32. Because of this, every point won or lost in other groups can change the threshold needed for progression, especially for national teams that are under pressure after the first round. Croatia is in such a situation because on 17 June in Dallas it lost to England 4:2, in a match in which, according to FIFA's report, Harry Kane scored twice for England, while Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford also scored, and Croatia's scorers were Martin Baturina and Petar Musa. That result does not close Croatia's path towards the continuation of the competition, but it makes it significantly narrower.
In that context, the end of Group B is also being followed especially closely, with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar meeting on 24 June in Seattle. According to the Group B table published by The Sporting News after two rounds, Canada and Switzerland have four points each, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar have one point each. If their head-to-head meeting ended in a draw, the third-placed national team in that group would remain on only two points. Such an outcome would be important for all teams that may finish third in their groups with three points, including Croatia if it fails to reach one of the first two places in Group L. Three points in the new system are not an automatic ticket to the knockout phase, but they are worth considerably more if third-placed teams in at least several groups stop at one or two points.
Why a draw in Group B matters for Croatia's calculations
Group B is one of those that can directly affect the lower threshold of the third-placed ranking. Canada, according to the published results, drew 1:1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina, then defeated Qatar 6:0, while Switzerland drew 1:1 with Qatar and then defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina 4:1. In doing so, Canada and Switzerland created a three-point advantage over the remaining two national teams before the final round. Since they play each other in the last round, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar also play each other, a draw in the second match would almost certainly mean that third place in that group brings only two points. In a system in which third-placed national teams are compared across all groups, such a table would be favourable for rivals from other groups that reach three or more points.
According to FIFA's rules for qualification from the group, the ranking of third-placed national teams is first determined by the number of points, then by goal difference, the number of goals scored, the team's disciplinary record and, if still necessary, by the latest FIFA ranking. This means that Croatia would not be looking only at winning third place, but also at the quality of that performance: the goal difference after three matches, the number of goals scored and the number of cards. The 4:2 defeat to England left Croatia at minus two, but at the same time brought two goals scored, which may be relevant in the comparison of third-placed teams if several national teams finish with the same number of points and a similar goal difference. That is precisely why a victory over Panama would not be important only because of the points, but also because of improving the overall picture that may decide matters at the end of the group stage.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar, by contrast, a draw could be insufficient for a more serious step towards the knockout phase. According to scenarios published by international sports media after the second round of Group B, both national teams need a victory to maintain a realistic possibility of a better placing, while defeat would almost certainly mean elimination. In the event of a draw, third place would be mathematically weak compared with most groups in which at least one national team is likely to finish on three points. For Croatia, this is therefore a result that does not directly decide Group L, but reduces competition in the parallel table of third-placed teams. In the new World Cup format, precisely such indirect outcomes have become an integral part of the fight to continue the competition.
Croatia must first solve its own problem: Panama
Despite all the calculations from other groups, Croatia must above all defeat Panama. According to FIFA's schedule for Group L, the match between Panama and Croatia is played on 23 June at the stadium in Toronto. Panama lost to Ghana 1:0 in the first round, with Caleb Yirenkyi's goal in the fifth minute of stoppage time, according to FIFA's official match report from Toronto. That defeat puts Panama in a position similar to Croatia's: without points after the first round, but still with an open possibility of returning to the fight for progression. For that reason, this is not a match in which one national team can calculate, but a duel in which defeat would almost certainly mean the end of realistic ambitions to continue the tournament.
For Croatia, victory over Panama is crucial for several reasons. First, it would bring the first three points and return Zlatko Dalić's team to the fight for third place, and depending on the outcome of the England and Ghana match, also for second place. Second, it would provide an opportunity to improve the goal difference, which is especially important after conceding four goals against England. Third, victory would psychologically stabilise the team before the final round against Ghana, in which Croatia's fate in the group could be decided. FIFA's statistics for the England and Croatia match show that England had 22 attempts on goal, and Croatia 10, which indicates that Dalić's team must improve its defensive balance if it wants to have a safer path to points.
Against Ghana, Panama showed that it can stay in the match for a long time and force the opponent to be patient. According to FIFA's data from that encounter, Panama had more possession and more total passes than Ghana, but it failed to turn territorial control into a goal. That is a warning for Croatia because the opponent must not be viewed only through the defeat in the first round. Panama has experience from major competitions, a disciplined block and motives that are as strong as Croatia's. Croatia will therefore have to avoid nervousness, especially in the first hour of the match, when patient build-up play and control of transitions could be just as important as individual quality.
Group L still offers several possible outcomes
After the first round of Group L, England and Ghana have three points each, while Croatia and Panama are without points. England, with a 4:2 victory over Croatia, took the best starting position, and Ghana, with a 1:0 victory over Panama, made a big step towards at least third place. In the second round England plays against Ghana, while Croatia plays against Panama. If England defeats Ghana and Croatia defeats Panama, before the last round England would be on six points, Ghana and Croatia on three, and Panama without points. Then the match between Croatia and Ghana on 27 June in Philadelphia could be a direct fight for second place, while the losing team, depending on goal difference and results from other groups, could seek progression as a third-placed team.
If England and Ghana play out a draw, a Croatian victory over Panama would again leave the fight open, but Ghana would enter the final round with four points. In that case, Croatia would need a victory against Ghana in order to overtake it, while a draw would probably mean relying on the ranking of third-placed teams, provided that Croatia really does beat Panama before that. If Ghana defeats England, the group would become even more complicated: Ghana would be very close to the top, England would remain on three points, and Croatia, in the event of a victory over Panama, could enter the final round level on points with England, but still burdened by the defeat in their head-to-head meeting. That is why Croatia's calculation cannot be reduced only to one match in Group B; it includes at least four parallel directions of results.
The order of criteria within the group itself is especially important. According to FIFA's rules, if two or more national teams are equal on points in the group, first the results in head-to-head matches between the tied teams are considered, then goal difference and the number of goals in those head-to-head matches, and only after that the overall goal difference and the overall number of goals in the group. This means that Croatia, if in a certain scenario it becomes level on points with Ghana or Panama, could benefit from a direct victory over those opponents. At the same time, the defeat against England is already an aggravating factor in a possible tie with England. The new system therefore rewards victories in direct matches and punishes reliance on narrow defeats and passive protection of results.
Third place is no longer consolation, but a separate table
The 2026 World Cup is the first edition with 48 national teams and 12 groups of four teams, and FIFA stated as early as the presentation of the format that 32 national teams would qualify for the knockout phase. This means that third place is no longer automatic elimination, as it was in most editions of the World Cup with 32 participants, but a position that may be sufficient. However, precisely for that reason, third place has its own logic and its own risks. A national team with three points can go through if several other third-placed teams are weaker, but it can also be eliminated if its goal difference is poor or if other third-placed teams collect four points. Croatia, if it finishes third, would have to be among the eight best of the total 12 third-placed national teams.
In practice, this means that draws involving direct competitors in other groups are important because they reduce the maximum number of points that a third-placed team from that group can reach. The example of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar clearly shows this. Since both national teams have one point each, the winner of their duel would move to four points and thereby become a much more serious candidate for progression, even if it remains third. A draw would leave both on two points, which would represent a significant advantage for third-placed teams from other groups with three points. Croatia may therefore have an interest in a draw in Seattle, but only if it first does what is necessary against Panama.
The disciplinary part of the ranking is also important. FIFA states in the rules that, after points, goal difference and goals, the so-called team disciplinary record, connected to yellow and red cards for players and members of coaching staffs, may also be considered. In tight tournament calculations, this is not just a secondary detail, but a potential criterion separating two national teams with the same number of points, the same goal difference and the same number of goals scored. Croatia therefore must not seek only a victory, but also a controlled match in which unnecessary cards will not become an additional burden. In the ranking of third-placed teams, especially after 72 matches of the group stage, small differences can become decisive.
Dalić's team between experience and the pressure of the format
Croatia enters this part of the tournament with the experience of a national team that played in the semi-final or final in the last two editions of the World Cup, but also with the pressure of generational transition. According to the Group L profile published by FIFA, Croatia is, in the group with England, Ghana and Panama, one of the national teams with the strongest recent tournament pedigree, while the continuity of coach Zlatko Dalić and the role of Luka Modrić as long-time captain are especially highlighted. Such a context creates the expectation that Croatia can react after a defeat, but it does not erase the fact that the schedule is now unfavourable. A first defeat in a group with four national teams leaves very little room for another slip-up, especially when only two teams have guaranteed progression.
Dalić's coaching staff therefore must solve tactical and mathematical problems at the same time. The tactics for Panama must bring stability in defence, better pressure after losing the ball and a more concrete entry into the final third. Mathematics, on the other hand, demands a victory that preferably improves the goal difference and leaves Croatia in a competitive position ahead of Ghana. If Croatia reaches three points with a more convincing result, its third-placed option becomes much stronger. If the victory is minimal, it still remains valuable, but in the closing stages of the group almost every goal could be counted.
In the final round, the simultaneous playing of matches in the group creates additional pressure. Croatia and Ghana play at the same time as Panama and England, so the final standings will not be certain until the final minutes. In such an environment, teams must know when to take risks and when to control the result, while the expanded tournament format particularly emphasises the rapid collection of points and rational management of goal difference.
What would be the most favourable sequence of results for Croatia
Croatia's cleanest path still remains winning six points in the remaining two matches. Victories over Panama and Ghana would probably take Croatia to six points, which in most outcomes would be enough for direct progression among the first two national teams in Group L. In that scenario, results from other groups would become less important, and a draw between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar would be only additional safety news in case of an unusual outcome. But if Croatia defeats Panama and then does not defeat Ghana, then the view inevitably expands towards the third-placed teams. Precisely there, draws such as the one that could happen in Group B gain great value.
For Croatia, a scenario in which several groups end with third-placed teams on two points or with a worse goal difference would be especially favourable. If Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar draw, one such case would be very likely. If a similar pattern repeats in one or two more groups, the threshold for entering the eight best third-placed teams could drop. Then Croatia's victory over Panama, with an acceptable result against Ghana, could be a strong enough combination. Still, such a path carries risk because it depends on matches that Croatia cannot control.
That is why the most important message of Croatia's situation is simple: a draw between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar can help, but it cannot replace points in Group L. Croatia must first defeat Panama, then against Ghana try to secure direct progression or at least a performance that will be competitive in the separate table of third-placed national teams. The new World Cup format has opened an additional path towards the knockout phase, but it has at the same time increased the number of variables that every national team must follow. In such a calculation, every draw involving direct competitors can be precious, but only if it is accompanied by one's own result on the pitch.
Sources:
- FIFA – official explanation of the 2026 World Cup format, progression from groups and ranking criteria (link)
- FIFA – overview of Group L with Croatia, England, Ghana and Panama and the match schedule (link)
- FIFA – official match centre for England - Croatia 4:2, results, scorers and match statistics (link)
- FIFA – official match centre for Ghana - Panama 1:0, result, scorer and match statistics (link)
- The Sporting News – updated table and schedule of Group B with Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar (link)
- FIFA – overview of Group B and the context of the matches involving Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar and Switzerland (link)