World Cup 2026: favorites hold the top of the betting markets, but the expanded format opens room for surprises
On the day before the start of the 2026 World Cup, the greatest attention of the betting market is, as expected, directed toward national teams that have belonged to the very top tier of world football for years. According to the current overview of odds published by The Sporting News, Spain and France enter the tournament as the most prominent favorites, with England, Portugal, Argentina and Brazil behind them. Such a ranking is not surprising because it matches recent results, squad depth and the status of national teams that have regularly reached the final stages in previous major competitions.
Still, ahead of the tournament that is being played from June 11 to July 19 in Canada, Mexico and the United States of America, more and more is also being said about teams from the second tier. The new format with 48 national teams, 12 groups and 104 matches increases the number of participants, but also the number of matches in which one mistake can change the entire projection of the tournament. FIFA states that the two best national teams from each group and the eight best third-placed teams advance to the knockout phase, which means that even teams that do not dominate their group can get an additional chance for a deep run in the competition.
Betting odds, meanwhile, are not a reliable forecast of the outcome but a reflection of the assessment of risk, form, reputation, the draw and market stakes. Comparative services for tracking offers, such as Oddschecker, show that prices on the eventual winner change constantly depending on player availability, news from camps, warm-up matches and betting volume. That is why, alongside the main favorites, national teams are increasingly being singled out that do not carry the burden of first-line favorites, but have enough quality, experience and individual class to achieve a major result in a format with many knockout matches.
The five biggest names and the market logic of favorites
Spain is at the top of market assessments primarily because of the continuity of its play and recent successes. In its preview of the Spanish national team, FIFA recalled that head coach Luis de la Fuente selected for the World Cup a squad led by players such as Lamine Yamal and Rodri, and it was also highlighted that this is a coach who led Spain to the European champion title in 2024. Such a combination of youth, technical dominance and experience in midfield explains why Spain is often mentioned ahead of the tournament as the first reference point in discussions about the winner.
France remains an almost equally strong favorite because it has squad depth that few can match. The national team that won the 2018 World Cup and played in the 2022 final still has exceptional attacking power, and Kylian Mbappé is one of the players around whom both sporting and betting projections are formed. According to the schedule and draw published by FIFA, France has been placed in Group I, where Norway, one of the most interesting teams from the second tier, also awaits. That very group shows that the new format does not necessarily mean an easier path for favorites, but sometimes brings very demanding combinations already in the first phase.
England is among the first followers of the favorites, and its market status is connected with a deep squad and expectations from the national team led by Thomas Tuchel. The English Football Association announced that Tuchel named 26 players for the tournament, with Harry Kane as captain, while UEFA states in its guide to the national team that England plays in Group L against Croatia, Ghana and Panama. After a series of strong tournament results without winning a major trophy, England once again enters the championship with great ambitions, but also with pressure that is greater than for most other candidates.
Brazil and Argentina remain a special category in market assessments because their reputation surpasses the current cycle. Argentina is the defending champion, and FIFA's match report of the final from Qatar confirms that in 2022 it defeated France after a 3:3 draw and a penalty shootout, by a score of 4:2. Brazil, on the other hand, enters the tournament with the ambition of winning a sixth title, but also with an additional layer of uncertainty after inconsistent qualifying. According to FIFA's data for the South American qualifiers, Brazil finished fifth, while Argentina won first place, and precisely that difference explains why the market does not treat them equally despite the historical weight of both national teams.
The Netherlands and Belgium: experience without the greatest pressure
Among the national teams that most often attract attention outside the narrowest circle of favorites, the Netherlands stands out. UEFA states in its guide that Ronald Koeman's team, led by captain Virgil van Dijk, plays in Group F against Japan, Sweden and Tunisia. The Netherlands has a long history of major results without winning the world champion title, including three lost finals, which gives it a unique combination of tradition, motivation and rational market interest.
The Sporting News listed the Netherlands outside the first few favorites in its overview of odds, but high enough to clearly show that the market does not consider it a classic outsider. Such a position can be an advantage because the team does not enter the tournament under the same pressure as Spain, France or England, and it has a defensive structure and the experience of players from the strongest European leagues. In a format that after the group stage brings an additional knockout round, a national team with an organized defense and quality from set pieces can become extremely awkward for any opponent.
Belgium is a different case because its status has changed in recent years. The generation that was long at the top of the FIFA rankings and reached third place in 2018 is no longer at the same peak, but that does not mean the Belgian national team is without tournament potential. When announcing the Belgian squad, FIFA stated that head coach Rudi Garcia has experienced names in the team such as Kevin De Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois, Romelu Lukaku, Thomas Meunier and Axel Witsel, while UEFA highlights that Belgium plays in Group G against Egypt, Iran and New Zealand.
It is precisely such a draw that helps explain why Belgium remains interesting to the market despite no longer being perceived as one of the three or four strongest national teams in the world. If it gets through the group from a good position, it could gain time to find its rhythm and avoid the toughest opponents until a later stage. From a betting perspective, Belgium is a typical example of a national team whose odds include doubts about long-term stability, but also respect for the individual quality of players who can decide a single match.
Norway as the most attractive attacking outsider
Norway is one of the most intriguing stories of the championship. When confirming its qualification, FIFA announced that Norway had returned to the World Cup after 28 years of absence and that it concluded qualifying with a 4:1 victory against Italy, after previously winning all seven matches. The same report also highlighted an 11:1 victory against Moldova, a result that further strengthened the impression of the attacking power of head coach Ståle Solbakken's team.
The main reason Norway appears in betting discussions is Erling Haaland. In its preview of the Norwegian national team, UEFA states that the Manchester City striker will appear at his first major international final tournament, while Martin Ødegaard is highlighted as captain and the team's second key pillar. Such a combination of finishing and creativity gives Norway a profile that is extremely dangerous in elimination matches, especially against opponents who take possession and leave space for transition.
Norway, however, also has one of the more difficult paths in the group. According to UEFA and FIFA's draw, it plays in Group I against France, Senegal and Iraq. This means that already in the first phase it will have to show whether the attacking efficiency from qualifying can function against opponents of a higher level. If it gets through the group, its status could change quickly: from an attractive outsider to a team that favorites want to avoid before the quarter-finals.
Colombia and Morocco: continuity of results and a proven tournament identity
Ahead of the tournament, Colombia has an argument more important than reputation itself: a concrete qualifying result. According to FIFA's table of the South American qualifiers, Colombia finished third in the CONMEBOL zone with 28 points, behind Argentina and Ecuador, and ahead of Uruguay, Brazil and Paraguay by ranking and additional criteria. In 18 matches it recorded seven wins, seven draws and four defeats, with 28 goals scored, which confirms that this was not a short burst of form but a stable campaign through the most demanding qualifiers outside Europe.
When announcing the Colombian squad, FIFA highlighted that head coach Néstor Lorenzo named 26 players for the tournament at which Colombia will meet the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Portugal and Uzbekistan in Group K. In the title of the announcement, Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez were singled out in particular, which neatly summarizes the balance between explosiveness and experience. Colombia is not counted among the first line of favorites, but it has enough structure, energy and individual quality to be a very awkward opponent in the knockout stage.
Morocco has a different, but equally strong story. In its report on the victory against Portugal in 2022, FIFA stated that Morocco became the first African and first predominantly Arab national team to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup. That result can no longer be viewed merely as a one-off surprise because the national team has built a tournament identity based on discipline, defensive organization, strong wide positions and great emotional energy.
Ahead of the 2026 championship, FIFA announced that head coach Mohamed Ouahbi named 26 players for the tournament, noting that the squad is full of players who took part in the historic appearance in Qatar. Morocco is in Group C with Brazil, Haiti and Scotland, which immediately brings it a major test against one of the biggest favorites at the start. If it maintains the defensive compactness and level of competitive discipline from 2022, Morocco has a realistic basis to once again be a national team that the market underestimates until the tournament enters its decisive phase.
The expanded format changes the calculation, but does not erase the difference in quality
Expansion to 48 national teams is often interpreted as an opportunity for outsiders, but the effect is not unequivocal. On the one hand, a larger number of participants and the advancement of the best third-placed teams mean that one weaker result in the group does not have to be fatal. On the other hand, an additional knockout round increases the number of matches a favorite must survive to reach the final, so the possibility of injuries, cards, extra time, penalties and tactical surprises also increases.
For national teams such as the Netherlands and Belgium, this can mean a longer period of gradually raising form. For Norway, Colombia and Morocco, it can mean the possibility of getting through the group without a perfect performance, and then using their strongest assets in a single match. Still, the difference between outsiders and the main favorites has not disappeared. Spain, France, England, Brazil and Argentina have greater squad depth, more experience in final stages and a wider range of solutions from the bench.
That is why it is most reasonable to speak about layers of favorites. The first layer consists of national teams that would consider winning the title an expected outcome of a strong tournament. The second layer consists of teams such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal and Germany, which have enough quality for the title, but also clear questions that keep them away from the very top of the market. The third layer consists of Norway, Colombia, Morocco and similar national teams, for which the path to the title is harder, but the path to the quarter-finals or semi-finals is convincing enough to attract serious attention.
Odds track both football and perception
Ahead of the first matches, the most important thing is to distinguish sporting analysis from market sentiment. Odds change because information changes, but also because the behavior of those who bet changes. Popular national teams often attract more stakes, which can shorten odds regardless of whether their objective chance has truly changed. By contrast, national teams from the second tier sometimes keep higher odds even after good results because the market is slower to accept the change in their status.
The 2026 World Cup therefore begins with a clear top tier, but also with an unusually wide circle of national teams that can disrupt the hierarchy. Spain, France, England, Brazil and Argentina remain the main measures of quality and expectation. The Netherlands and Belgium offer experience without the greatest burden of being favorites, Norway brings the most dangerous attacking potential among outsiders, Colombia arrives with confirmed qualifying continuity, and Morocco with proof that on the biggest stage it has already known how to overturn predictions.
Sources:
- FIFA – official schedule, tournament format, number of matches and host cities of the 2026 World Cup. (link)
- FIFA – explanation of groups, advancement to the knockout phase and ranking criteria for the 2026 World Cup. (link)
- The Sporting News – current overview of favorites and odds for the winner of the 2026 World Cup. (link)
- Oddschecker – comparison of markets and odds offers for the 2026 World Cup. (link)
- FIFA – official announcement of Spain's squad for the 2026 World Cup and the context of Luis de la Fuente's squad. (link)
- England Football – official announcement of England's squad for the 2026 World Cup. (link)
- FIFA – official match report of the 2022 World Cup final between Argentina and France. (link)
- FIFA – CONMEBOL qualifying standings for the 2026 World Cup. (link)
- UEFA – guide to the Netherlands at the 2026 World Cup, including group, head coach and key players. (link)
- UEFA – guide to Belgium at the 2026 World Cup, including group, head coach and captain. (link)
- FIFA – confirmation of Norway's qualification for the 2026 World Cup and data on its qualifying campaign. (link)
- UEFA – guide to Norway at the 2026 World Cup, including group and key players. (link)
- FIFA – announcement of Colombia's squad for the 2026 World Cup and information about Group K. (link)
- FIFA – report on Morocco's victory over Portugal in 2022 and historic qualification for the semi-finals. (link)
- FIFA – announcement of Morocco's squad for the 2026 World Cup. (link)