Flights between Europe and China are recovering, but the market is no longer the same as before the war in Ukraine
Air traffic between Europe and China continues to recover, although European airlines still face one of the biggest structural problems on routes to Asia: closed Russian airspace. After years of disruption caused by pandemic restrictions, weaker demand and the war in Ukraine, the number of flights on the Europe - China route is rising again. But the recovery is not evenly distributed among carriers. Chinese companies have a significantly more favorable operational position because, according to available market data, they can still use shorter routes over Russia, while carriers from the European Union and the United Kingdom must fly on detour routes.
According to the overview of European air traffic published by Eurocontrol, traffic between Europe and China, including Hong Kong, continued to recover during 2025 and reached an average of 278 flights per day, which is 20 percent more than a year earlier. This figure shows that the market is gradually returning, but it does not mean that business conditions have become equal. On the contrary, the difference in access to Russian airspace has become one of the key factors of competitiveness on routes to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other major Chinese destinations.
For passengers, this disruption is most often seen through flight schedules, ticket prices and travel duration. For airlines, it is a much deeper business problem: longer flights mean higher fuel consumption, more complex crew planning, lower aircraft utilization and a greater risk that a route will become unprofitable. That is why the renewal of Europe-China routes is taking place in an environment in which demand is strengthening again, but operational costs and geopolitical obstacles still strongly shape flight networks.
Russian airspace has changed the economics of flights to Asia
The closure of airspace is the result of sanctions and countermeasures introduced after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Council of the European Union states that in February 2022 the EU banned Russian carriers from accessing airports in the Union and from flying over the territory of member states. Russia then introduced retaliatory restrictions for a number of Western carriers, which forced traditional routes between Europe and East Asia to change significantly. European companies on routes to China, Japan and Korea today often use more southerly routes, over the Caucasus, Central Asia or other available corridors, depending on the security situation and overflight permits.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency, according to its own conflict zone information bulletins, continues to warn operators about risks associated with flights in airspaces affected by war and security threats. In separate reports, specialist aviation media state that EASA expanded warnings for the western and central part of Russian airspace, west of the 60th meridian east, because of security risks to civil flights. Such warnings affect not only operational decisions, but also insurance, regulatory responsibility and the risk assessment of each individual airline.
Chinese carriers, unlike most Western competitors, are not in the same position on routes to Europe. Since they can use Russian airspace, their flights between China and European cities are often shorter, with lower fuel consumption and simpler crew planning. In the industry, this difference is described as a serious competitive advantage, because on long-haul flights even a relatively small difference in duration can turn into a major cost over an entire season. If the same aircraft can return to base more quickly, the carrier has greater schedule flexibility and can more easily maintain flight frequency.
Chinese carriers are aggressively increasing capacity to Europe
Data reported by aviation and business media show that Chinese companies are planning a strong increase in flights to Europe in summer schedules. South China Morning Post, citing data from the British analytics company OAG, reported that Chinese carriers are expected to add almost 2,900 flights to Europe in the summer season compared with the previous year. According to the same source, most of the additional capacity comes from three major state-owned carriers: Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines.
Such expansion does not apply only to the largest European metropolises. In recent years, Chinese carriers have increasingly introduced or strengthened routes to secondary markets, trying to take advantage of demand for direct flights and the fact that some European companies are more cautious in restoring Asian routes. For cities in Europe, a direct connection with China can be important for tourism, business travel, cargo traffic and the development of airport hubs. For Chinese companies, it is an opportunity to strengthen market share at a time when competitors must calculate with higher costs.
Still, the mere fact that the number of flights is increasing does not mean that the market is risk-free. The aviation industry remains exposed to fluctuations in fuel prices, tensions in the Middle East, changes in demand for business travel and possible regulatory responses by Western countries. In the United States, there has already been discussion about whether Chinese carriers on U.S. routes should be prevented from using Russian airspace, because U.S. companies do not have the same option because of Russian restrictions. Associated Press reported that Chinese carriers protested against such a proposal, claiming that it would increase costs and harm passengers.
European companies are restoring routes, but cautiously and selectively
European airlines are increasingly returning to the Chinese market, but that return is neither simple nor linear. Greater demand, the removal of numerous pandemic barriers and Chinese measures to make entry easier for foreign travelers are creating more favorable conditions for the renewal of traffic. At the same time, every company must assess whether a long-haul route to China can produce a satisfactory yield if it is flown on a longer and more expensive path. In practice, this means that some routes are being restored, some are being strengthened, and some remain suspended or are being shifted to partnership arrangements.
The example of British Airways shows how complex the decisions are. The Guardian reported that in 2024 the British carrier announced the suspension of direct flights between London Heathrow and Beijing from October 26 of that year, while it continued to fly to Shanghai and Hong Kong. The announcement stated that flights to Asia had become more expensive and time-consuming for Western carriers because of the avoidance of Russian airspace, and weaker demand was also mentioned. This example does not mean that the Europe-China market is collapsing, but shows that the recovery is uneven, depending on the specific route, passenger structure and the carrier's ability to pass the cost on to the ticket price.
For large European groups, such as Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, IAG and other network carriers, China remains strategically important. It is a market with great potential for business travel, premium cabins, transfers via European hubs and cargo traffic. But after the pandemic and geopolitical upheaval, it is no longer enough simply to restore old routes. Carriers must decide whether to prioritize China, North America, the Middle East or other more profitable markets, especially if they can use the same wide-body aircraft on a route with lower operational risk and higher revenue.
China's visa policy further stimulates demand
One of the reasons why demand for travel to China is gradually improving is the liberalization of visa rules. China's National Immigration Administration states that citizens of numerous European countries with ordinary passports can enter China without a visa for shorter stays, including business visits, tourism, visits to relatives and friends, exchanges and transit. According to data compiled by that institution on the basis of announcements by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the list of European countries includes, among others, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, Ireland, Austria, Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Greece, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia and several other countries.
Chinese consular services have announced that the unilateral visa-free entry policy for a number of countries has been extended until December 31, 2026, with the possibility of stays of up to 30 days for persons who meet the requirements. This measure is important for air traffic because it removes one of the administrative barriers to short business and tourist trips. A passenger who does not have to go through the regular visa procedure can more easily make a travel decision, while companies and the tourism sector can more easily sell shorter packages, trade fair visits and combined trips.
Visa liberalization does not solve all the market's problems. Demand for travel to China also depends on economic expectations, the frequency of business contacts, disposable income, ticket prices and perceptions of geopolitical risk. Still, for airlines it is an important signal that Chinese authorities want to encourage international mobility and make it easier for foreign visitors to return. Combined with a larger number of direct flights by Chinese carriers, such a policy can further increase pressure on European companies not to leave the market to competitors.
North American carriers remain more cautious
Unlike Europe, where traffic to China is recovering more strongly, the North American market remains more cautious. The reasons are multiple: political tensions between the United States and China, restrictions related to Russian airspace, a slower recovery of business travel and a different structure of demand. In its economic forecasts for air traffic, IATA states that the Asia-Pacific region should remain the leader in traffic growth, while weaker growth is expected for North America compared with other regions. This balance of power further explains why Europe-China and Asia-Pacific routes are in carriers' focus, while U.S.-China links are progressing more cautiously.
U.S. companies face the same fundamental problem as European ones: they cannot use the shortest routes over Russia in the way Chinese carriers can. Associated Press reported that U.S. authorities considered a measure that would limit Chinese companies' use of Russian airspace on flights to and from the United States, arguing that the existing regime creates an unfair cost advantage. Chinese companies, according to the same report, warned that such a ban would lengthen trips and increase ticket prices.
In such an environment, North American carriers have fewer incentives to increase capacity to China quickly. If demand is weaker and costs are higher, companies will prefer to direct aircraft to more profitable routes. This does not mean that U.S.-China air traffic will remain permanently suppressed, but it does mean that its recovery will probably depend on diplomatic relations, regulatory decisions and the stabilization of business demand as much as on tourist interest.
Passengers get more options, but competition is not equal
For passengers, the most visible effect of the recovery is a greater choice of direct and connecting flights between Europe and China. Higher capacity can generally ease pressure on prices, especially on routes where Chinese carriers increase frequency and offer competitive fares. But the difference in routes means that the ticket price reflects not only market demand, but also the geopolitical position of the carrier. If one company flies a shorter route and another has to detour around a large part of Eurasian airspace, their costs are not comparable.
Such a situation can change the market structure in the long term. Chinese carriers can win a larger share of passengers on direct flights, while European companies try to retain premium passengers, corporate contracts and transfers via their hubs. Airports in Europe also compete for Chinese routes because they bring international visibility, tourist traffic and cargo capacity. At the same time, carriers must make sure that the increase in the number of flights does not lead to excess capacity and pressure on profitability.
The recovery of air traffic between Europe and China therefore cannot be viewed only as a return to the pre-pandemic state. The market has become more dependent on geopolitics, security assessments and state policies than before 2020. While demand is recovering and visa rules are making travel easier, Russian airspace remains a key obstacle to equal competition. Until this problem is resolved, European companies can restore Chinese routes, but they will do so with much more careful calculations than their Chinese rivals.
Sources:
- Eurocontrol - overview of European air traffic and data on the recovery of flights between Europe and China in 2025 (link)
- IATA - economic outlook for air transport and regional forecasts for demand growth in 2026 (link)
- National Immigration Administration of the People's Republic of China - list of countries covered by the unilateral visa-free regime and entry conditions (link)
- Chinese Visa Application Service Center / Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC - notice on the extension of the unilateral visa-free policy until December 31, 2026 (link)
- Council of the European Union / EEAS - explanation of EU sanctions against Russia, including the ban on Russian flights in EU airspace (link)
- European Union Aviation Safety Agency - information on conflict zone information bulletins and air traffic (link)
- South China Morning Post - report on the increase in the number of flights by Chinese carriers to Europe and OAG data (link)
- The Guardian - report on the suspension of British Airways flights between London and Beijing and the impact of longer routes to Asia (link)
- Associated Press - report on the U.S. proposal to restrict the use of Russian airspace by Chinese carriers on routes to the United States (link)
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