European airports recorded passenger growth of 3.8 percent in March despite the crisis in the Middle East
Passenger traffic at European airports increased in March 2026 by 3.8 percent compared with the same month last year, ACI Europe, the European airport association, announced on May 13. According to that organization, this growth remained broadly in line with February, when the increase amounted to 4.2 percent, although the aviation market was already under pressure from the conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28, 2026. The data show that demand for air transport in Europe remained resilient even after the new geopolitical shock, but also that the effects of the crisis were not distributed evenly across markets.
According to the ACI Europe report, airports in the EU+ group increased passenger numbers by 4.1 percent, while the rest of Europe grew more slowly, by 2.6 percent. ACI Europe links the slowdown outside the EU+ market primarily to the exceptionally sharp decline in traffic at Israeli airports, where passenger volumes were down by 86.3 percent. The organization includes the European Union, the European Economic Area, Switzerland and the United Kingdom in the EU+ category, while the rest of Europe includes, among others, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Turkey, Israel, Ukraine, Moldova, North Macedonia and Uzbekistan.
The published data are important because they come at a time when European air traffic is simultaneously facing several pressures: geopolitical disruptions, route diversions, possible restrictions in the supply of jet fuel, cost pressure on airlines and the increasing burden on airports ahead of the summer season. Although overall growth of 3.8 percent points to stable demand, a more detailed review reveals significant differences between countries, airport sizes and individual traffic segments. Some smaller and medium-sized destinations recorded the strongest growth, while the largest European markets generally grew more moderately.
The conflict changed routes, but did not stop demand
ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec assessed that the first month of the war in the Middle East once again showed the resilience of demand for air transport under the conditions of a major geopolitical shock. According to him, many European airports lost direct connectivity with the region, but traffic flows toward Asia quickly adapted to alternative direct and indirect routes. Jankovec also stated that such rerouting somewhat supported intra-European traffic, while the transatlantic market remained very dynamic.
In an analysis published on March 31, 2026, Eurocontrol stated that since the beginning of hostilities, the number of flights between Europe and the Middle East had fallen by 59 percent, or by about 1,200 daily flights fewer than the usual 2,000. If flights overflying Europe are also included, mostly on connections to and from North America, the decline associated with Middle Eastern traffic amounts to 56 percent. At the same time, Eurocontrol estimated that around 1,150 flights were affected every day by reroutings due to the avoidance of conflict areas and closed airspaces.
Such reroutings have a direct operational and environmental impact. According to Eurocontrol, because of route changes, aircraft fly an additional 206 thousand kilometers per day, consume about 602 tonnes more fuel and generate about 1,900 tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions. Despite this, Eurocontrol emphasized that the European aviation network remains resilient, with global network traffic at the time of publication of the analysis standing two percent above the 2025 level.
In a separate report for March, IATA announced that global passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, increased by 2.1 percent compared with March 2025. International demand fell by 0.6 percent, and IATA linked that decline to the collapse of international traffic by Middle Eastern carriers, where a drop of 60.8 percent was recorded. At the same time, according to IATA, European carriers achieved growth in international demand of 7.7 percent, while traffic between Europe and Asia increased by 29.3 percent because direct services replaced part of the traffic that previously went through Middle Eastern hubs.
Best results in Slovenia, Croatia, Denmark, Malta and Slovakia
Within the EU+ market, the highest growth in passenger traffic in March was recorded by airports in Slovakia, with an increase of 130.7 percent, ACI Europe reported. Slovakia was followed by Slovenia with growth of 17 percent, Denmark with 13.8 percent, Malta with 12.5 percent and Croatia with 10.8 percent. Such results show that part of the growth continues to be concentrated in smaller and strongly tourism-oriented markets, where new or restored seasonal connectivity can significantly affect overall percentages.
At the opposite end of the ranking, according to ACI Europe, was Cyprus, where passenger traffic fell by 15.3 percent. The organization linked that decline to the consequences of media reporting about a drone incident near the British base on the island, although, according to ACI Europe, the actual security situation in Cyprus remained stable. This example shows how much the perception of safety can affect demand, especially in markets that rely heavily on international passengers and tourist arrivals.
Among the largest EU+ markets, airports in Italy, with growth of 4.8 percent, and Spain, with growth of 3.9 percent, achieved the best results. Airports in Germany grew by 3.1 percent, in the United Kingdom by 2.8 percent, and in France by 1.2 percent. ACI Europe assessed that these large markets were below the industry average, partly because of national aviation taxes which, according to that organization, negatively affect competitiveness and demand.
Outside the EU+ group, the fastest growth was recorded in North Macedonia, where airports had 36.3 percent more passengers than in March 2025. It was followed by Moldova with growth of 25.3 percent, Bosnia and Herzegovina with 21.3 percent, Uzbekistan with 15.9 percent, and Turkey and Serbia, both with an increase of 11.3 percent. These results confirm that the growth of European air traffic increasingly also relies on markets outside traditional Western European centers, especially on destinations gaining new low-cost or regional connections.
Istanbul and Heathrow led the largest European airports
Among the largest European airports, that is, those with more than 40 million passengers per year, the best result in March was achieved by Istanbul, with growth of 7.7 percent, according to ACI Europe. It was followed by Istanbul Sabiha Gökçen with an increase of 7.2 percent. London Heathrow grew by 6.9 percent and was the busiest European airport in March, with 6.64 million passengers.
Spanish hubs also continued to grow. According to ACI Europe, Barcelona increased passenger traffic by 5.4 percent and Madrid by 4.2 percent. Growth was more modest in Frankfurt, where it amounted to 2.1 percent, and in Munich and Amsterdam, which both grew by 1.4 percent. On the other hand, London Gatwick recorded a decline of 2.5 percent, and Rome Fiumicino a slight decline of 0.1 percent.
In the category of mega airports, those with 25 to 40 million passengers per year, Copenhagen achieved the most dynamic growth, with 16.2 percent. Dublin increased by 11 percent, Paris Orly by 10 percent, Málaga by 9.5 percent, and Antalya by 9.2 percent. Among large airports, which serve between 10 and 25 million passengers per year, ACI Europe singled out Ankara with growth of 19.6 percent, Tashkent with 15.9 percent, Izmir with 15.3 percent, Milan Linate with 14.2 percent and Naples with 12.7 percent.
Particularly large percentage changes are visible among medium-sized and small airports. Among the medium-sized ones, Reus, Bratislava, Zadar, Trapani and Skopje grew the fastest. According to ACI Europe, Zadar had 78.1 percent more passengers in March than a year earlier. Among small airports, where small absolute changes can produce very high percentages, ACI Europe cited the examples of Córdoba, Bucharest Băneasa, Växjö, Jönköping and Stockholm Bromma.
Small airports still far below the pre-pandemic level
Although small airports had the highest growth rate in March, at 8.9 percent compared with the same month last year, ACI Europe warns that they are still the furthest from the pre-pandemic level. Compared with 2019, airports with fewer than one million passengers per year were 32.1 percent below the traffic level of that time. This points to a structural difference between the recovery of major hubs, which can rely on network carriers, transit and stronger international demand, and smaller airports that depend on a limited number of routes.
For smaller airports, the problem is not only the number of passengers, but also the stability of connectivity. When one or two seasonal routes are discontinued, total traffic can fall significantly, while the introduction of a new route can produce exceptionally high growth. For that reason, percentages at smaller airports often look more dramatic than at major hubs, but they do not necessarily mean a full business recovery. ACI Europe has long warned that regional airports have an important role in territorial connectivity, but that they are more exposed to changes in costs, regulation and airlines' business decisions.
In March, airports with more than 40 million passengers per year grew by an average of 3.2 percent, mega airports by 4.8 percent, large airports by 1.9 percent, medium-sized airports by 5.6 percent, and small airports by 8.9 percent. Such a distribution shows that the recovery is not linear. The largest airports continue to achieve huge absolute passenger volumes, while smaller and medium-sized airports often record stronger percentage jumps, but from a lower starting base.
Cargo traffic was the first to feel the consequences of the crisis
Unlike passenger traffic, cargo traffic at European airports fell by 3.1 percent in March, ACI Europe announced. The organization states that it was precisely in the cargo segment that the effect of the conflict in the Middle East was most clearly visible, because a large part of air cargo to Europe usually comes via Middle Eastern hubs. The decline in March is particularly notable because the previous two months were positive: in January, cargo traffic increased by 6.4 percent, and in February by 8.9 percent.
The reduction in cargo traffic is also important for the passenger market because many airlines generate part of their revenue by carrying cargo in the belly holds of passenger aircraft. When routes are diverted, extended or temporarily suspended, the consequences are visible not only in the number of passengers, but also in supply chains. Air cargo traffic is especially sensitive to delivery times, security assessments and fuel costs, so geopolitical disruptions can very quickly change the economics of individual routes.
The number of aircraft operations in the European network continued to grow, but more slowly than before. According to ACI Europe, the number of aircraft movements in March increased by 1.3 percent compared with the previous year, after growth of 2 percent in February. This means that the number of passengers grew faster than the number of flights, which may indicate better aircraft load factors, higher average capacities or a combination of both factors.
Fuel remains the biggest unknown ahead of summer
In an economic review published on March 6, IATA warned that the conflict in the Middle East had seriously disrupted global energy flows and exposed vulnerabilities in the supply of jet fuel. According to that organization, the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes, became difficult to navigate after tanker traffic fell by 70 to 80 percent. IATA stated that Europe is among the most exposed regions because 25 to 30 percent of its demand for jet fuel originates from the Persian Gulf.
In the same review, IATA warned that the security of jet fuel supply in Europe relies heavily on commercial stocks that usually cover a little more than one month of demand. Increased insurance premiums, longer sailing around the Cape of Good Hope and limitations among alternative suppliers further increase costs and extend delivery times. For that reason, the risk for the aviation sector concerns not only the availability of fuel, but also its price.
According to the ACI Europe release, Jankovec said that, for now, no decline in passenger numbers is expected during the peak of the summer season, unless serious jet fuel shortages occur. He added that Middle Eastern airlines are restoring their European network, while European carriers have so far made only limited capacity adjustments. The reason for this, in his assessment, also lies in the protection provided to airlines by fuel hedging strategies, but also in the fact that demand remains strong.
Nevertheless, ACI Europe warns that the outlook after the peak of the summer season is much more uncertain. According to Jankovec, further developments will depend on geopolitics and the consequences of the oil crisis, including the possibility of a new cost-of-living shock that could test passenger resilience. IATA Director General Willie Walsh also warned that the extremely high price of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices, although in March there was still no visible impact on traffic or future bookings.
Traffic growth does not mean the absence of risk
The March data show that European air traffic is entering the summer season with a positive trend, but also with an unusually large number of external risks. Overall growth of 3.8 percent confirms that passengers are still willing to travel, and that the route network can quickly adapt to airspace closures and route changes. At the same time, the decline in cargo traffic, the weakening of markets connected with the Middle East and the pressure of fuel prices show that the sector's resilience is not unlimited.
For airports, the key will be the ability to maintain capacity, safety and throughput in a period when the seasonal peak of travel is expected. Major hubs will have to manage rerouted flows and possible delays, while smaller airports will try to take advantage of demand, but also reduce the risk of sudden changes in airline schedules. For passengers, the consequences could be seen primarily through possible route changes, longer flight times and gradually more expensive tickets if cost pressures continue.
According to available data from ACI Europe, Eurocontrol and IATA, European aviation in March did not enter a phase of declining demand, but rather a period of more complex and more expensive operations. Passenger numbers continue to grow, but traffic flows are changing faster than under stable market conditions. Precisely because of that, the coming months will show whether March's growth was a sign of lasting market resilience or merely the result of demand that has so far outweighed the first consequences of the geopolitical and energy crisis.
Sources:
- ACI Europe – release on the growth of passenger traffic at European airports in March 2026 (link)
- Eurocontrol – analysis of the impact of the current crisis in the Middle East on European aviation (link)
- IATA – report on global passenger demand in March 2026 (link)
- IATA Economics – review of jet fuel supply vulnerability due to the conflict in the Middle East (link)