New fault study brings groundbreaking insights into earthquake prediction

Seismologists around the world are developing advanced methods that could significantly improve the ability to predict earthquakes, and the latest research provides insight into where destructive earthquakes might originate, how they might spread, and where they could cause the greatest damage. A new method of studying fault planes, developed in collaboration with American and New Zealand scientists, could become a crucial tool in modeling and reducing the impacts of future earthquakes.

Studying Fault Planes: Key to Understanding Past and Future Earthquakes

Fault planes, structures formed as a result of movements in the Earth's crust, contain many invisible traces of earthquakes. Scientists have discovered that curved scratches on these planes, which had long been overlooked, can provide crucial information about past earthquakes. These scratches, similar to tire marks on asphalt after a race, reveal the direction from which the earthquake arrived at a specific point. Applying this method allows researchers to reconstruct the origin and spread of past seismic activities.

According to a study published in the journal Geology, scientists have for the first time shown how these scratches can serve as "fingerprints" of past earthquakes, allowing for detailed analyses and more precise predictions for the future. The pioneering work was led by geologist Nic Barth from the University of California Riverside, who emphasizes that these curved marks can reveal not only the direction of the earthquake but also its strength and potential spread direction.

Alpine Fault in New Zealand: A Natural Laboratory

The Alpine Fault in New Zealand has proven ideal for testing this method due to its specific seismic history. This fault, known for nearly regularly causing large earthquakes every 250 years, provided data about the last major earthquake from 1717. Research showed that this earthquake began in the southern part of the fault and spread northward, a scenario for which models predict significantly stronger shaking in populated areas.

Additionally, the research revealed that large earthquakes could begin at any end of the fault, which changes the previous understanding and opens new possibilities for analyzing other seismically active areas worldwide. These discoveries are particularly important for New Zealand but also globally, as they allow for the application of this method on various faults around the world.

California: Focus on the San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults

California, known for its seismic activity, particularly along the San Andreas Fault, could benefit the most from this technique. The direction of earthquake spread plays a crucial role in determining the intensity of shaking and the time the population has to react. For example, a large earthquake that would start in the southern part of the San Andreas Fault, near Salton Sea, and spread northward could direct destructive energy toward densely populated areas such as Los Angeles.

With proper application of this method, experts believe that early warning systems could provide Los Angeles residents with up to a minute's warning before shaking begins. This extra minute could mean saving thousands of lives by enabling evacuation, shutting down dangerous systems, and reducing damage.

A New Dimension in Assessing Seismic Risk

The method of analyzing curved scratches has already been implemented in computer models simulating earthquake spread. These models, combined with existing techniques such as electromagnetic monitoring of changes in Earth's ionosphere, could significantly improve the understanding of seismic activities. Scientists have already begun applying this technique to faults in California with the aim of creating a comprehensive earthquake prediction system.

Global Application and Future Challenges

Discoveries from the Alpine Fault provide a foundation for research in other seismically active areas. Scientists worldwide, including those in Japan, Turkey, and Indonesia, are already showing interest in applying this method to their own fault systems. Moreover, the method opens the possibility for historical analysis of seismic events, allowing for a better understanding of earthquake frequency and intensity over the centuries.

While scientists hope this method will help save lives and reduce damage, the challenge remains in its real-world application and integration with existing early warning systems. Nonetheless, the enthusiasm within the scientific community clearly indicates that we are one step closer to a more precise understanding of earthquakes and their consequences.

Source: University of California