Yesterday–today–tomorrow: how the Fed, Iran, Ukraine and rare earths change prices, rates and travel safety

Yesterday, 11 January 2026, the world once again showed how big topics quickly spill over into small, everyday decisions: the price of fuel, your loan instalment, travel safety, the availability of medicines and food, and even how stable your job is if you work in industries dependent on importing technology. This is not just geopolitics “somewhere out there”, but a chain of consequences that, as a rule, ends up in the household budget.

Today, 12 January 2026, the key word is uncertainty. According to Reuters, markets are sensitive to political pressure on central banks and to signals around war, sanctions and energy supply. When such risks add up, the result is faster changes in exchange rates, interest-rate expectations and raw-material prices. It’s the kind of “unease” an ordinary person first feels through more expensive shopping, postponed investments and more cautious spending.

Tomorrow, 13 January 2026, brings several clear points that can shift sentiment and decisions: releases of inflation data, the start of the bank earnings season, and new political consultations on crisis hotspots. The good news is that part of the risk can be turned into a plan: follow announcements, understand what affects prices, and protect yourself with simple moves, from household spending to travel insurance.

The biggest short-term risk is the “combination”: political pressure on monetary policy, energy price spikes due to instability in Iran, and tightening supply chains for critical minerals. The biggest opportunity is adaptation: whoever refinances in time, diversifies costs and avoids impulsive decisions (e.g., panic buying or sudden investments) usually gets through cheaper and calmer.

Yesterday: what happened and why you should care

U.S. politics and the Fed: a signal that rates may become a “political issue”

According to Reuters, U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell said the administration of President Donald Trump had threatened a criminal indictment and used subpoenas linked to his testimony about the renovation of a Fed building. This is a strong signal to investors that the conflict over monetary policy is moving from economics into the political arena.

For an ordinary person, that means greater instability: when markets doubt the independence of a central bank, the dollar and bond yields can swing faster. The consequences are global, because the dollar and U.S. rates spill over into import prices, loan rates and banks’ risk appetite worldwide. If you’re planning a larger loan or refinancing, this kind of story often means one thing: banks can become more conservative and change terms more quickly. (Source, Details)

Iran: protests, repression and risk for oil

According to Reuters, protests in Iran continue to grow, with human-rights groups reporting more than 500 deaths, while authorities intensify the crackdown on demonstrations. In such a situation, any sign of the conflict spreading increases fears of disruptions to oil supplies.

For the household budget this is crucial: the price of oil is the “price of everything” — fuel, delivery, food, heating and air tickets often follow energy trends. And even when oil prices do not rise dramatically, uncertainty alone pushes traders and carriers to build a safety margin into prices. If you depend on a car or you travel, this kind of news is a reminder to plan costs with a buffer and avoid “last-minute” purchases. (Source)

Critical minerals and rare earths: the quiet battle that sets the price of technology

According to Reuters, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is seeking faster and more concrete steps from allies to reduce dependence on China for rare earths and other critical minerals, and the topic was also on the agenda with the G7 and partners. It’s a rare case where industrial policy translates directly into the price of consumer electronics.

For an ordinary person this shows up as an “invisible tax”: more expensive phones, batteries, electric cars, and indirectly pricier household appliances and the servers that power digital services. If you work in manufacturing, IT, or industries tied to energy and defence, this is also a story about job stability. In the short term, the rule is: don’t count on technology getting cheaper just because a new generation is released — supply chains and geopolitics increasingly dictate the opposite. (Source)

Greenland and NATO nerves: when rhetoric turns into a security risk

According to Reuters, German Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil said international law applies to everyone, including the U.S., reacting to Trump’s threats regarding Greenland. Even if some rhetoric never turns into action, the story itself creates nervousness among allies and raises questions about coordination in the Arctic.

For citizens it usually doesn’t look urgent, but in the long run it becomes very practical: tensions within the alliance and quarrels over territory can spur higher military spending, changes in trade routes and security checks in strategic industries. That means more public money into security and less into other things, plus more risk for logistics and supply along northern routes. (Source)

Ukraine: attacks on Kyiv and “wartime normality” as an economic cost

According to Reuters, Kyiv was attacked by drones, while European officials warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not serious about peace. In parallel reporting, Reuters describes the burden of war and residents’ attempts to keep normal life as calls for talks intensify.

For an ordinary person outside Ukraine, this is above all economic and energy-related: the war sustains the risk of sanctions, pressure on energy prices, and disruptions in exports of grain and industrial materials. Within Europe, this can spill over into heating bills, insurance and logistics costs. If you do business with suppliers from the region or rely on transport through Eastern Europe, the key advice is: contract deliveries with a time “buffer” and secure alternative routes. (Source, Details)

U.S. and social policy: veto threat over health-insurance subsidies

According to Reuters, Trump threatened to veto a Republican plan to expand subsidies under the Obamacare system. This is a typical example of how domestic politics in the world’s largest economy quickly becomes a global signal: markets read such moves as an indicator of stability and the direction of public spending.

For people in the U.S., this is a direct question of policy prices and access to coverage. For the rest of the world, the message is indirect but important: when budget and social policy harden in Washington, investors often seek safety, which shifts exchange rates and risk appetite. If your income depends on exports to the U.S. or on global demand, these political battles can be felt through slower orders and more cautious spending. (Source)

Minnesota and suspected fraud: a reminder that administrative cuts can be abrupt

According to Reuters, the administration suspended welfare benefit payments in Minnesota due to an investigation into possible fraud. Although it’s one state, the pattern is universal: when a “system clean-up” begins, collateral damage often hits those who aren’t at fault.

The practical lesson applies everywhere: relying on one payment or one administrative channel is a risk. If your household budget depends on support, refunds or one-off benefits, it’s worth having Plan B: a 30–60-day reserve and orderly documentation ready for a quick review. Such situations regularly amplify scams too, so caution with messages and calls “on behalf of the state” is especially important. (Source)

Cuba and energy: how quickly politics turns into a blackout

According to Reuters, Cuba entered 2026 without the previously crucial Venezuelan oil lifeline, increasing the country’s energy vulnerability. When you rely on one source or one political arrangement, a disruption very quickly turns into plant shutdowns, rationing and pressure on imports.

For readers outside the Caribbean, this is an example worth remembering: energy dependence isn’t theory. It becomes very practical as soon as sanctions, a change of government or a logistics break occurs. The takeaway is household-level and local: wherever energy is tight, food and service prices rise too, and those with the least “slack” in the budget suffer most. (Source)

Awards season: the Golden Globes as an indicator of what the industry will push in 2026

According to Reuters, the list of winners of the 83rd Golden Globe Awards, held on 11 January 2026, was published. While it sounds “soft” compared with war and energy, pop culture is serious business: winners affect investment in production, marketing and platforms, and thus subscription prices and regional content availability.

For an ordinary person this means two practical trends: first, streaming platforms typically raise prices and adjust packages when they have “hot” titles; second, advertising and sponsorship shift, affecting media budgets and the labour market in creative industries. If you work in media, PR, production or advertising, these results help you anticipate what will be bought, licensed and pushed through campaigns in the coming months. (Source)

Today: what it means for your day

Money, exchange rates and interest: a day to keep a cool head

According to Reuters, the dollar weakened and stock markets were choppy after the escalation of the clash between the Trump administration and the Fed. When the market doesn’t know whether politics will “push” rates, it seeks safety: some money goes into gold, some into government bonds, and currencies swing faster up and down.

If you’re making financial decisions today, it’s important to separate information from impulse. Exchange rates and interest can create short-term noise that corrects in a few days, but they can also open a period of more expensive borrowing. That especially hits those with variable rates or those planning bigger purchases.

• Practical impact: banks and exchange offices may adjust terms faster, and “safe havens” raise the price of gold.
• What to watch: don’t lock in a big decision based on a single day’s exchange-rate move or headline.
• What you can do right away: check interest-rate fixing, the cost of early repayment, and make a repayment plan without assuming rates will fall.

If your job is tied to export/import, today is a good day to lock the rate or at least calculate how a 1–2% move changes your margin. (Source)

Fuel and energy: Iran raises risk, Venezuela adds a new element

According to Reuters, oil is under pressure from two opposing forces: escalating protests in Iran increase supply risk, while expectations of a return of Venezuelan exports and talk of possible oversupply limit gains. In practice, that means prices on gasoline and gas markets can jump even without a “big” war — it’s enough for risk to be priced higher.

For households and small businesses, today is about stabilisation: it’s better to plan consumption than to chase the perfect price. If you have long daily routes or logistics, any fuel price change becomes visible within a week or two.

• Practical impact: transport and delivery get more expensive first, and the effect spills into goods prices.
• What to watch: avoid panic buying fuel; markets often make a short spike and then a correction.
• What you can do right away: optimise routes, combine errands into one trip, and check carriers’ tariffs if you run a business.

If you’re planning a trip, especially by air, factor in that airlines and charters change prices faster when oil turns unstable. (Source)

Rare earths: today it’s your phone’s price tomorrow

Today, finance leaders of the G7 and partners are gathering in Washington with a focus on critical minerals, and according to Reuters the U.S. is pushing for faster moves to reduce dependence on China. In parallel, Reuters reports Japan is sending a research vessel to hunt for rare earths, and Australia is announcing a strategic “reserve” approach via critical minerals.

For an ordinary person this matters because rare earths go into everything: from speakers and headphones to electric vehicles and renewable energy. When a state introduces reserves or industrial incentives, it often also means a new round of investment financed through taxes or product prices. In the short term, prices can rise due to uncertainty; in the long term, diversification can stabilise supply.

• Practical impact: higher volatility in electronics and battery prices, especially during periods of tension with China.
• What to watch: don’t buy technology out of fear, but plan device replacement before it becomes urgent.
• What you can do right away: extend device life (service, battery), and avoid buying on credit without a fixed rate.

This is also a topic that affects jobs: factories, IT and energy increasingly depend on the availability of these materials. (Source, Details)

Technology and AI: growth is fast, but it depends on geopolitics and costs

According to Reuters, TSMC’s profit is expected to grow strongly, driven by demand for AI infrastructure. The AI wave isn’t just “software”: it’s chips, energy, data centres and global supply chains. Add the fight over rare earths, and you get a picture where tech optimism goes hand in hand with material constraints.

For an ordinary person today, it’s crucial to distinguish two things: AI can open new jobs, but it can also pressure the labour market in administration and routine work. At the same time, rising investment in AI often increases the prices of cloud services and subscriptions, spilling over to small businesses and freelancers.

• Practical impact: higher cost of digital tools and potential pressure on jobs that are easy to automate.
• What to watch: don’t pay for “premium” subscriptions if they don’t bring measurable benefit.
• What you can do right away: invest in one skill that boosts productivity (analytics, automation, data security).

If you run a business, today is a good day to review contracts with cloud and SaaS providers: costs often rise quietly, through extra “seats” and features. (Source)

Security and war: planning without dramatisation

According to Reuters, drone attacks on Kyiv and political messages about (un)readiness for peace are a reminder that the war remains a long-term risk factor. At the same time, Reuters reports the U.S. administration is weighing options on Iran. Such topics quickly affect insurance, logistics and commodity prices.

For an ordinary person, the practical part is simple: wherever geopolitical risk rises, insurance premiums rise too (travel, transport, business), and delivery timelines become less reliable. You see that in online shopping as well as B2B contracts.

• Practical impact: higher insurance costs and more frequent changes in routes and delivery timelines.
• What to watch: don’t leave travel plans without cancellation insurance and health coverage.
• What you can do right away: check ticket refund terms and make a list of alternative suppliers if you run a business.

If you have investments, today it’s rational to think about diversification, but without panic moves and without “all-in” decisions. (Source)

Health: the respiratory-virus season calls for simple discipline

According to the U.S. CDC, respiratory viruses are tracked through seasonal indicators, and waves can change quickly depending on the region and people’s behaviour. This is the part of the news that isn’t spectacular, but has the most “small” consequences: sick leave, absences, crowded clinics and reduced productivity.

For an ordinary person today, the most practical approach is to think about scheduling and prevention, especially if you have older people, chronically ill household members or school-age children at home. It’s not about panic, but about reducing damage.

• Practical impact: higher risk of sick leave and “gaps” in staffing in companies.
• What to watch: don’t ignore symptoms if you’re in contact with vulnerable people.
• What you can do right away: ventilate rooms, step up hand hygiene and plan obligations so you have a backup slot.

If you travel or work with many people, simple measures often matter more than any “perfectly accurate” wave forecast. (Official document)

Humanitarian crises: Aleppo and the “invisible” cost of conflict

According to the United Nations and humanitarian offices, any worsening of fighting in urban areas quickly becomes a civil-protection crisis: interruptions to water, electricity, medical care and food supply. Such crises are often not only local, because they create migration pressures and strain neighbouring countries.

For an ordinary person outside the conflict zone, this shows up through migration policy, food prices and changes in public budgets. When the number of people needing help rises, the need to fund humanitarian programmes rises too, and political tensions within host countries become more pronounced.

• Practical impact: pressure on staple food prices and rising political tensions in regions receiving refugees.
• What to watch: misinformation about “numbers” and causes often spreads faster than facts.
• What you can do right away: rely on verified sources and avoid sharing unverified footage and claims.

When the humanitarian picture worsens, a diplomatic wave usually follows — and that’s often where it’s decided whether the crisis escalates or calms down. (Official document, Details)

Tomorrow: what could change the situation

• The U.S. BLS publishes inflation and real wages, which can shift interest-rate expectations and exchange rates globally. (Official document)
• JPMorgan Chase publishes results and holds a call, which often sets the tone for the entire bank earnings season. (Official document)
• According to Reuters, Trump is expected to discuss options on Iran with close advisers, which can affect oil. (Source)
• Further follow-ups and summaries of agreements on critical minerals are expected after the Washington gathering of the G7 and partners. (Source)
• Markets will react especially sensitively to any new statement about pressure on the Fed, because risk is quickly priced into the dollar.
• Announcements and guidance on energy prices can shift already after morning signals from the oil market and news from Iran.
• The Federal Reserve continues its regular releases of statistics and interest indicators, which markets track in real time. (Official document)
• The UK’s ONS has scheduled releases in its calendar, relevant for comparisons of public policy and demographics. (Official document)
• Eurostat’s euro-indicators release calendar remains a reference point for data that affect inflation and market sentiment in the EU. (Official document)
• According to Reuters, the search for alternatives to rare earths becomes a topic in Japan as well, affecting supply chains. (Source)
• Earnings season and macro data together can increase daily swings on stock markets, which matters for savings and pension funds.
• NASA and SpaceX continue preparations for Crew-11’s return from the ISS to Earth in the coming days, weather-dependent. (Source)

In brief

• If your loan has a variable rate, track inflation and signals from central banks, not daily headlines.
• If you drive a lot, assume Iran can push up fuel prices even without a formal escalation of conflict.
• If you’re buying new technology, plan ahead: rare earths and supply policy can raise prices.
• If you run a business, secure at least one alternative supplier and contract deliveries with backup timelines.
• If you travel, get cancellation insurance and check refund terms, because risks rise when energy and war escalate.
• If you have savings, diversify and avoid impulsive moves; volatility is often short-lived, but an expensive shock.
• If you have vulnerable people at home, act preventively due to respiratory viruses: fewer absences means fewer costs.
• If you follow the news, look for attribution and official documents; in crises, misinformation is the fastest “virus”.