Yesterday–today–tomorrow: inflation, energy and geopolitics that change your prices, loans and travel today

On January 12, 2026, the world entered a week in which big politics is no longer kept at a safe distance from everyday life. Energy prices, exchange rates, interest rates, shipping security, and the tone in relations among allies are increasingly becoming topics that spill over the very same day into the fuel bill, the monthly loan installment, or a travel plan.

For an ordinary person, the most important question is not who “won” the daily statement, but what is changing in risk: will imports and fuel get more expensive, will banks tighten conditions, will travel and logistics become costlier or less safe, will confidence be shaken in the institutions that keep inflation and the financial system under control.

Today, January 13, 2026, brings several points that can flip sentiment in markets and household budgets: the release of U.S. data on inflation and real wages, and the start of a more intense pace of earnings releases from big banks. This translates directly into interest-rate moves and expectations about future cuts or tightening of monetary policy.

Tomorrow, January 14, 2026, brings new U.S. producer-price data and reports that often change the economic narrative, and at the UN the calendar includes topics that spill over into route security and the cost of insurance in transport and supply. In practice: tomorrow is a day to check plans, not to guess.

The biggest short-term risks are spikes in energy prices and uncertainty around trade moves, and the biggest opportunities are for those who protect their budgets in time from interest-rate and currency surprises, and reduce exposure to impulsive purchases and unnecessary loans while the signal clears.

Yesterday: what happened and why you should care

Iran, protests, and the threat of a trade удар

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, new reports arrived about the continuation of protests in Iran and the authorities’ response, with broader reverberations in the region and in markets. In such situations, what matters is not only what is happening in the streets, but what investors and states expect could follow: sanctions, export disruptions, or disturbances in energy supply, which often pushes up fuel and heating prices even in countries not directly involved in the crisis.

For a household budget, this translates into three concrete things: a higher likelihood of a short-term spike in prices at the pump, more expensive transport, and faster price growth for products that depend on transportation. If you live in a country that imports energy, even a small shock in the market can be felt within a few weeks. It hits hardest those who drive more, heat with oil-linked energy sources, or have a smaller financial buffer. (Source)

Trade threats and tariffs as the new everyday reality

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. president said on January 12, 2026 that the United States would impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. Such announcements create uncertainty even before they become law or an executive order: companies delay orders, insurance and logistics become more expensive, and the currencies of vulnerable countries weaken. Consumers usually see this through the price of electronics, clothing, and part of groceries, because risk in the supply chain is sooner or later built into the price.

The practical advice is simple: if you’re planning a bigger purchase of imported goods (e.g., a phone, laptop, a larger household appliance), watch exchange rates and promotions, but avoid buying on debt at high interest until the policy direction becomes clearer. In periods of trade frictions, the most expensive combination is: a weaker currency plus an expensive loan. (Source)

The Fed under pressure and a signal of nerves in markets

According to an official statement by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the U.S. Department of Justice delivered grand-jury subpoenas to the Fed related to his earlier appearance before the Senate, and Powell described the move as a precedent and part of broader pressure on the institution. When a central bank is in the focus of political struggle, markets immediately add an extra risk premium: loan rates fall more slowly, and investors become more sensitive to every inflation number.

For an ordinary person, that means one thing: even if we don’t follow U.S. politics, it affects the cost of borrowing globally. Mortgages, refinancing, credit cards, and business loans are sensitive to expectations about future rates. If you’re in the phase of taking out a loan, the biggest gain is to request several offers and lock in conditions when they’re more favorable, rather than wait for it to “drop a bit more,” because in this climate uncertainty can cost more than the rate itself. (Official document, Details)

Markets: gold at a record and a sensitive dollar

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, gold reached record levels while the dollar weakened, with the focus on trade threats and uncertainty. These days aren’t just a game for big funds: when “safe havens” rise, it usually means global risk has increased and investors are hedging. That can spill over into the cost of imports, and then into retail inflation.

For households, it’s crucial to understand the rhythm: a weaker dollar often means more expensive imports for those who pay in other currencies, but it can also lower the price of some goods priced in dollars, depending on the local currency. If you have savings, think about allocation: some liquid for emergencies, some in lower-risk instruments, but without impulsive moves. Big one-day swings are rarely the best moment for “all or nothing.” (Source)

Ukraine: strikes on energy infrastructure and heating outages

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, Ukrainian authorities reported Russian attacks on infrastructure and consequences including power and heating outages. It’s a reminder that energy security remains one of the main levers of the war, and when energy systems are attacked, markets react beyond the conflict’s borders.

For an ordinary person in Europe and beyond, this translates into the risk of volatility in gas and electricity prices and into political decisions about reserves and imports. You don’t have to be an energy expert to protect yourself: creating a small “winter reserve” (warm clothing, an alternative light source, a plan for a short power outage) is not panic but rational preparation, especially in areas with frequent weather extremes. (Source)

Gaza: internal clashes and the risk of instability spreading

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, reporting covered an incident in Gaza in which an armed group linked to Israeli support killed a Hamas officer. Such episodes often mean the situation on the ground is fragmenting: more actors, less control, and a higher likelihood of unpredictable escalations.

The practical consequence for readers is twofold. First, any instability in the region increases risk for shipping and cargo insurance, and that is ultimately felt in the price of goods. Second, for travelers and diaspora communities, the risk rises of flight changes, cancellations, and more expensive travel insurance. If you’re traveling toward the eastern Mediterranean, check insurance terms and ticket flexibility before buying, because “cheap non-refundable tickets” are the most expensive when the situation changes suddenly. (Source)

EU and Russia: a new wave of sanctions ideas

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, the Swedish prime minister urged the European Union to target Russia’s “shadow fleet” and permanently block the Nord Stream pipelines. Sanctions are an instrument that is felt more slowly at the checkout, but when they target logistics and energy, they can change the price and availability of certain products, from fuel to industrial raw materials.

For consumers, it’s important to watch two things: energy prices and transport costs. When measures tighten around transport and ship insurance, goods travel more expensively and more slowly. You see this first in sectors sensitive to delivery times (auto industry, electronics, construction). If you’re a small business owner, a sensible move is to check inventory and delivery times with suppliers and arrange alternatives in advance, because the cost of business interruption usually appears suddenly. (Source)

Greenland and NATO: tension among allies

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, Greenland’s government said defense should be within NATO and rejected any takeover idea, while European officials warned that military scenarios would fracture the alliance. When uncertainty appears within an alliance, it’s not just geopolitics: such a signal increases risk in markets, especially for regions that rely on security guarantees and stable trade flows.

For an ordinary person, this most quickly spills over through insurance costs, the investment climate, and currency value in smaller, open economies. In practice: periods of “allied frictions” are bad for impulsively taking on large financial obligations in a foreign currency. If you already have such a loan, check whether you can move part of the exposure into a more fixed framework (e.g., fixed interest, currency hedging) or at least increase your monthly buffer. (Source)

A drug deal: AbbVie and an investment package

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, AbbVie announced a deal with the U.S. president’s administration to lower drug prices in exchange for a $100 billion investment plan in the United States. Healthcare and pharma can sound far away, but this is the kind of news that can change therapy prices and availability, and trigger similar pressures in other countries.

For patients and families on chronic therapies, the practical takeaway is: when the biggest manufacturers come under price pressure, the probability rises of changes in coverage lists, discounts, and launch strategies for new drugs. That can be positive for price, but it can also bring temporary confusion in supply and administration. If you rely on a specific therapy, a smart move is to check an alternative with your doctor and pharmacist, and keep a minimal stock within regulations, so policy switching is felt less. (Source)

Credit cards and an interest-rate cap: populism or a rulebook change

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, banks warned that a proposal for a one-year cap on credit card interest at 10% (from January 20, 2026) could lead to restrictions in credit access and changes in fees. Even if the measure doesn’t pass, the debate itself is a signal: politics is moving deeper into consumer finance, and that usually means fast changes in rules, fees, and offers.

For a typical card user, the key is not to wait for a law to save money. Check the real APR, fees, and the interest-free period. If you carry debt month to month, every percentage point costs you, and there’s no magic: the best “policy” is to reduce the balance or move the debt to a cheaper product (if it makes sense and there are no hidden fees). In periods of rule changes, card issuers often adjust perks, so watch the terms and don’t assume rewards and cashback will stay the same. (Source)

Venezuelan oil returns to the market via traders

According to Reuters, on January 12, 2026, Vitol and Trafigura offered Venezuelan oil to Indian and Chinese refineries for March deliveries, after arrangements opened the door to marketing those exports. This is an example of how geopolitics and sanctions regimes reshape energy flows: oil doesn’t disappear—it travels differently, and that changes price and supply security.

For drivers and households, this means fuel prices in the coming weeks depend not only on demand, but also on administrative decisions and logistics. If fuel is a major cost for you (work, delivery, travel), the smartest approach is planning: bundle errands, reduce empty trips, and track prices with minimal discipline, without chasing the “perfect moment.” When markets are nervous, volatility is a bigger enemy than the average price. (Source)

Today: what it means for your day

Inflation and real wages: today measures the key pressure

Today, January 13, 2026, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for December 2025 and the real earnings figure are released, according to the BLS calendar. This is one of the releases that can change market direction within an hour, and then expectations for rates around the world, from mortgages to the cost of imports.

For an ordinary person, the message is: today is not a day to randomly sign big financial commitments without comparing offers. If you’re in the process of taking a loan or refinancing, have questions ready for the bank: is the rate fixed or variable, what’s the scenario if rates rise, and what is the cost of early repayment.

• Practical consequence: higher inflation usually pushes rates up and weakens purchasing power.
• What to watch: headlines about a “shock” often exaggerate; look at the trend, not one month.
• What you can do right now: review installments and terms, and make a payoff plan for the highest-interest debt.

(Official document)

Banks open earnings season: a signal for credit and fees

Today a stronger wave of results from major U.S. banks begins, and such releases often reveal something consumers feel later: whether banks will tighten criteria, raise fees, or become more aggressive in pushing credit. When banks fear rising risk, it shows first in card limits and terms for new loans.

If your work is tied to consumers (retail, services), today pay attention to management tone on spending and repayment delays. These are early indicators of whether the “real economy” is stable.

• Practical consequence: banks can change card, loan, and savings terms faster than the state.
• What to watch: rising “delinquencies” and loss provisions usually precede tighter terms.
• What you can do right now: check account and card fees, and open negotiations for better packages.

(Details)

Currencies and imports: today is the day the exchange rate works in the background

According to Reuters, today the Asian market picture was tracked amid a strong Nikkei and a weak yen, ahead of U.S. inflation. When major currencies move, smaller open economies feel it through import prices, travel packages, and electronics.

If you buy in a foreign currency or plan a trip, today is a good day to check exchange-rate differences among offers: banks, cards, and exchange offices have different margins. Small differences in the rate become big when larger amounts are involved.

• Practical consequence: a weaker domestic currency makes imports and travel more expensive.
• What to watch: “dynamic currency conversion” at the POS is often more expensive than the card’s conversion.
• What you can do right now: set alerts in your bank app for rates and fees, and pay in the local currency where possible.

(Source)

Energy: today’s fuel price is more politics than math

According to Reuters, oil prices rose due to unrest in Iran and trade threats. When geopolitics accelerates, fuel prices can change direction within a day, and that then spills over into transport and delivery costs.

For consumers, it pays to react with small habits, not big panics. Plan refueling when it’s not urgent, and for households with higher heating costs it makes sense to track tariffs and consider consumption savings without losing comfort.

• Practical consequence: more expensive oil raises transport costs and part of food prices through logistics.
• What to watch: short-lived spikes often reverse; don’t stockpile unnecessarily.
• What you can do right now: optimize routes and consumption, and check fuel prices at different locations.

(Details)

Supply chains and cargo insurance: the Red Sea and daily risk

According to the provisional program of work of the UN Security Council, the schedule includes items related to maritime security and international security, including topics tied to reporting on the Red Sea. For logistics and insurance, these are signals that can change transport prices and timelines.

If you order goods from more distant regions or run a small business, today it’s worth checking whether suppliers have changed delivery and insurance terms. Often the change is small in the fine print and big in the cost.

• Practical consequence: higher insurance and longer routes increase the price of goods and delivery times.
• What to watch: the “estimated delivery date” in a webshop becomes less reliable in crisis zones.
• What you can do right now: confirm timelines and alternative routes, and order earlier what is critical for you.

(Official document)

Ukraine and energy: today the price of strikes on infrastructure is paid

According to Reuters, the consequences of strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector include power and heating outages, and such events raise market sensitivity to any news about energy and reserves. This matters today because decisions about stockpiles and imports are often made in real time.

For households and small businesses, today’s practice is: check your energy contract and tariffs, and consider small investments in energy efficiency that pay back quickly (sealing, thermostats, more rational consumption).

• Practical consequence: higher energy volatility means more unstable bills through the season.
• What to watch: fixed offers sometimes have hidden conditions; read the fine print.
• What you can do right now: reduce peak consumers during the most expensive hours where possible.

(Details)

Credit cards: today start paying down, not hoping

According to Reuters, banks warn that the planned interest cap could have side effects on credit availability. Regardless of whether the measure passes, the reality is that card debt is among the most expensive forms of debt, and policies can change before you change habits.

Today is an ideal day for a “financial service”: list all debts and interest rates, and tackle the most expensive first. If you have multiple cards, consider consolidation or closing the most expensive products, but only after checking fees and the impact on your credit profile.

• Practical consequence: changes can come through fees, limits, or benefits.
• What to watch: the minimum payment prolongs debt and multiplies the cost.
• What you can do right now: set an automatic payment above the minimum and reduce the number of active cards.

(Source)

Greenland and NATO: today’s lesson in risk that isn’t written on the bill

According to Reuters, Greenland’s statement and European officials’ reactions show that tensions can appear even among partners. This is relevant today because financial markets like predictability, and security uncertainty changes risk appetite.

You don’t have to follow every statement, but follow the consequences: jumps in insurance premia, pressure on defense budgets, and shifts in the investment climate. In such an environment, a “safety buffer” in the budget is worth more than aggressive investing without coverage.

• Practical consequence: risk rises, and with it the cost of capital and insurance.
• What to watch: fast market reactions can be exaggerated; make decisions with a cool head.
• What you can do right now: reduce exposure to variable-rate debt if you can.

(Source)

Oil from Venezuela and a new supply map

According to Reuters, traders opened offers of Venezuelan oil to India and China for March. This is a signal today that the market is adapting to sanctions and political deals, and such shifts often affect derivative prices and the availability of certain fuel types.

For an ordinary person, this doesn’t mean fuel will get cheaper tomorrow, but that the price will keep moving in waves. The best defense against waves is stable consumption and planning, not bottom-fishing.

• Practical consequence: shifts in supply flows can reduce or increase price pressure, depending on other risks.
• What to watch: media headlines about “new oil” rarely lower pump prices immediately.
• What you can do right now: keep records of consumption and set a weekly fuel-spend limit.

(Source)

Tomorrow: what could change the situation

• U.S. PPI is released at 14:30 CET; higher growth means pressure on prices and potentially more expensive loans. (Official document)
• The Fed’s Beige Book is released on January 14, 2026; the tone on spending and employment can change rate expectations. (Source)
• The UN Security Council has a briefing on the Middle East and consultations on Yemen on its schedule; focus on route security increases. (Official document)
• The UN calendar also includes an item on international security linked to reporting on the Red Sea; possible risk changes for shipowners.
• Wells Fargo publishes fourth-quarter results; the market will look for a signal on credit quality and consumption. (Source)
• The day after CPI, markets often “reshuffle” positions; possible sharp jumps in exchange rates and yields without new news.
• If tariff rhetoric intensifies toward Iran-linked trade, expect nervousness in transport and cargo insurance prices.
• The energy market will react to new signals from Iran; fuel can become more expensive even without a physical supply disruption.
• Expect banks and card issuers to step up communication on terms and fees due to the political debate about an interest cap.
• In the coming days, additional reports on energy supply in Europe may arrive; track tariffs and possible conservation recommendations.
• Logistics for imported goods may get longer lead times; if something is urgent for you, order earlier and confirm delivery.
• Markets will pay special attention to any signal of the Fed’s independence after Powell’s statement; volatility may remain elevated. (Official document)

In brief

• If you plan a loan today, compare offers and ask for a scenario for rate increases after the CPI release.
• If you carry card debt, reduce the balance immediately; political announcements don’t pay your interest.
• If fuel is a big cost for you, plan trips and set a weekly limit; oil is in a phase of rapid jumps.
• If you order imported goods, check timelines and delivery terms; shipping and insurance risk raises prices.
• If you’re traveling toward the eastern Mediterranean, get a flexible ticket and check whether insurance covers security-related changes.
• If you have savings, don’t react impulsively to daily gold records; the goal is stability, not chasing headlines.
• If you run a small business, talk to suppliers about alternatives; sanctions and logistics change conditions overnight.
• If your budget is tight, make a “volatility reserve”: at least one month of basic expenses in liquid form.