Scientists have made a significant breakthrough in predicting space storms, enabling more accurate forecasts of when a violent solar eruption might strike Earth.

Research now allows the prediction of the exact speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the timing of their impact on our planet, even before they fully erupt from the Sun.

CMEs are bursts of gas and magnetic fields ejected into space from the Sun's atmosphere. They can cause geomagnetic storms that can disrupt technology in Earth's orbit and on the surface, which is why experts worldwide are working to improve space weather forecasts.

According to researchers from Aberystwyth University, advancements in this field could significantly help protect the infrastructure crucial to our daily lives. They will present their findings today at the Royal Astronomical Society's National Astronomy Meeting in Hull.

It has been found that specific areas on the Sun, called 'active regions,' are key to understanding the formation of CMEs. These regions have strong magnetic fields that change before, during, and after the eruption.

Critical Height of Active Regions
A key aspect of the research was the "critical height" of active regions, which is the height at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and can lead to a CME. Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist from Aberystwyth University, explains that measuring the strength of the magnetic field with height can determine this critical height.

"Using this data along with a geometric model, we can track the actual speed of a CME in three dimensions, which is crucial for accurate forecasts," says Gandhi.

Their findings show a strong correlation between the critical height at the onset of a CME and its actual speed. This allows the prediction of the CME's speed and its arrival time at Earth even before it fully erupts.

Impact on Earth
When CMEs hit Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms that create spectacular auroras, known as the northern lights. However, these storms can also disrupt key systems we rely on daily, such as satellites, power grids, and communication networks.

Therefore, scientists around the world are working to improve our ability to predict when CMEs will hit Earth. More accurate predictions of CME speed shortly after an eruption allow for better advance warnings.

Gandhi emphasizes that understanding and utilizing critical height in forecasts improves the ability to warn of incoming CMEs, thus helping to protect the technology we depend on in modern life.

Improving Space Weather Forecasts
"The research not only enhances our understanding of the Sun's explosive behavior but also significantly improves our ability to predict space weather events," says Gandhi.

"This means better preparedness and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day."

Advancements in space storm forecasting have the potential to greatly enhance our ability to protect critical infrastructure and technology. With a better understanding of the critical heights of active regions on the Sun, scientists can more accurately predict the speed and arrival of CMEs, allowing for timely warnings and better preparedness for potential geomagnetic storms.

These new insights come at a crucial time, as space weather becomes increasingly important with growing dependence on satellites and communication networks. Scientists hope that their methods will improve global forecasts and enable better strategies for protecting infrastructure.

Aberystwyth University plans to continue its research, focusing on further improving models and methods for space weather prediction. The scientific community eagerly anticipates further discoveries that will secure our technological future.

Ultimately, precise space weather forecasts not only help protect technology but also contribute to a better understanding of the complex processes governing the behavior of our Sun and its impact on Earth.

This significant advancement in space weather science can ensure that we are better prepared for future solar eruptions, reducing risks and protecting vital technologies we use daily.

Source: Royal Astronomical Society