American forecasts push Croatia among the outsiders ahead of the World Cup, but Group L offers a quick test
American forecasts ahead of the 2026 World Cup have not been particularly kind to Croatia. According to the published Goldman Sachs model, the biggest favorite for the title is Spain, while ESPN's overview of betting odds places Croatia among the far weaker market candidates to win the tournament. Such a ranking attracts attention because it comes after two consecutive Croatian finishes among the world's three best national teams: the 2018 final and third place in 2022. Ahead of the tournament, which will be played from June 11 to July 19 in the United States, Canada and Mexico, Dalić's team once again enters the competition with the reputation of a national side that often exceeds outside expectations. The first opportunity to test the American assessments arrives already in Group L, where Croatia will face England, Panama and Ghana.
Goldman Sachs has the most faith in Spain
According to a report that refers to Goldman Sachs' analysis, the statistical model of that financial institution gives Spain a 26 percent chance of winning the World Cup. Behind it are France with 19 percent, Argentina with 14 percent and Brazil with 8 percent, while England and the Netherlands are approximately at five percent in that model. Goldman Sachs states that the analysis relies on historical match data, national team rankings, an assessment of attacking potential and geographical factors, with Elo ratings playing an important role. Such an approach tries to describe the strength of national teams numerically, but the very framework of the model also implies limitations because players' health, form on match day, tactical adjustments and psychological pressure cannot be fully captured by a single formula. Therefore, Goldman's ranking should be read as a statistical assessment, not as a forecast that determines the course of the tournament in advance.
Spain is not a surprising favorite in such a picture because in the recent period it has built a team with a clear identity, a high technical standard and young players who already have important roles at the biggest European clubs. According to the same report, the model additionally values Spanish attacking potential and continuity of results, and also takes into account the fact that, after Argentina's triumph in 2022, the world title, statistically speaking, often returns to European national teams. Still, the history of World Cups shows that the logic of favorites often changes as soon as the knockout stage begins. One injury, red card, extra time or penalty shootout can bring down even the best-calculated odds. That is precisely why it is interesting to compare cold projections with the tournament experience of national teams that know how to adapt at major competitions to a different rhythm than the one suggested by models.
ESPN's odds place Croatia far from the top
ESPN's overview of market odds, published at the end of May, lists Spain as the first favorite at +475, ahead of France at +500 and England at +650. Croatia is listed in the same overview at 80-1 to win the title, which places it in the group of national teams that the betting market does not see as the main contenders for the trophy. ESPN also notes that Croatian odds shortened after the draw was formed, from 90-1 to 80-1, which means that the market has not completely ignored Croatia, but still keeps it considerably below the main favorites. In the same table, Croatia has +340 to win Group L and -500 to advance from the group, which points to the difference between the assessment of the overall path to the title and the assessment of the basic goal in the first phase of the competition. In other words, the market believes that Croatia should advance from the group, but does not give it high chances for the final triumph.
Such odds are not the same as an editorial prediction, nor do they represent a sporting judgment on the quality of the team. Above all, they reflect the relationship between risk, expectations and stakes on the market, which is why they can be influenced by the popularity of individual national teams, public perception and bettors' habits. The American market is particularly sensitive to well-known global brands and national teams with a large number of stars in the most-watched leagues, so teams such as Spain, France, England, Brazil and Argentina are regularly in the foreground. Croatia, on the other hand, is a national team whose strength is often better seen through the structure of play, midfield experience, tournament discipline and the ability to survive difficult matches than through individual market value or global media exposure. Because of that, the difference between the betting ranking and Croatia's tournament reputation is not necessarily contradictory, but it opens space for discussion about how much big-match experience can be quantified.
The results from 2018 and 2022 are a reason for caution with underestimation
According to FIFA's profile of the Croatian Football Federation, Croatia's best World Cup result remains second place from 2018, while its most recent appearance in 2022 ended with winning third place. These are facts that make the American assessments especially interesting because Croatia is not coming to the tournament as a national team without proof on the biggest stage. In Russia in 2018, it reached the final, and four years later in Qatar it again reached the very end of the tournament and won bronze by defeating Morocco in the third-place match. Such continuity is not accidental, especially when taking into account that this is a national team that has often had to go through extra time, penalties and extremely demanding matches against favored opponents. That is precisely why the outsider label in the overall projections does not mean that Croatia lacks the tools for a deep tournament run.
At the same time, there are also reasons why models and markets do not push Croatia into the front row of favorites. Zlatko Dalić's team is going through a transition period in which an experienced core relies on a new generation, and major tournaments often mercilessly punish a lack of freshness, depth or efficient finishing. Compared with national teams that have more forwards from the very top of European football, Croatia more often relies on collective balance, control of rhythm and the experience of players who know how to manage high-pressure matches. That can be an advantage in the knockout stage, but it can also be a risk if the group starts badly or if an early match exposes problems in finishing. Therefore, the most precise thing to say is that Croatia is not among the main favorites according to current American assessments, but it is also not a typical outsider without a serious results-based foundation.
Group L immediately brings a match against England
According to the official tournament schedule, Croatia opens its campaign on June 17 against England at the stadium in Dallas, that is, Arlington. The second match follows on June 23 against Panama in Toronto, and the third on June 27 against Ghana in Philadelphia. Group L therefore has several layers: according to market odds and most outside assessments, England is the favorite for first place, Croatia is the closest challenger, while Ghana and Panama enter with the ambition of taking advantage of the expanded competition format. FIFA has confirmed for the 2026 edition a format with 48 national teams, 12 groups of four teams and 104 matches, with the two best national teams from each group and the eight best third-placed teams advancing to the round of 32. That means that third place can also be enough to continue the competition, but for national teams with Croatian ambitions the goal remains safe passage and as favorable a position as possible in the knockout-stage draw.
The match with England is especially important because it can immediately change the tone of Croatia's entire tournament. England comes into the competition with high expectations, strong individuals and the status of one of the most-followed national teams in the world, but Croatia also carries its own history of big matches against it. The best-known example is the 2018 World Cup semifinal, when Croatia defeated England after extra time and secured the final against France. That result alone guarantees nothing for 2026, but it shows that the Croatian national team knows how to play matches in which it is not the favorite according to most outside forecasts. If Dalić's team wins points in the first encounter or even imposes an equal rhythm against England, the American assessments could very quickly start to be read differently.
Dalić's list combines a recognizable core and younger options
The Croatian Football Federation stated that the latest update of the squad list for the World Cup was published on June 1, 2026, and FIFA described Dalić's selection as a blend of experience and new forces. Luka Modrić and Ivan Perišić are once again in focus, players who marked the most successful period of the Croatian national team, but also younger footballers who should take on a greater burden in the new cycle. Among the important names in defense are Joško Gvardiol, Josip Šutalo and Josip Stanišić, while the midfield still has recognizable quality through Modrić, Mateo Kovačić, Mario Pašalić, Luka Sučić, Martin Baturina, Petar Sučić and other options. In attack, among the main names are Andrej Kramarić, Ante Budimir, Ivan Perišić, Petar Musa, Marco Pašalić and Igor Matanović. Such a squad confirms that Croatia is no longer only a team of one generation, but is trying to extend its continuity of results with a gradual change of roles.
For Dalić, the key challenge is to find a balance between experience and energy. Experienced players bring calmness, authority and an understanding of tournament details, but the expanded format and travel across North America also demand good physical distribution. Younger players can bring more aggressive pressing, faster transition and greater dynamism, but at a major competition decision-making is often equally important in moments when a match slips away from the plan. In previous tournament successes, Croatia most often won precisely through a combination of control, patience and mental endurance. If it manages to combine those elements with more efficient finishing, the space between betting outsider and real tournament opponent may prove to be considerably wider than the 80-1 figure suggests.
The expanded format can increase uncertainty
The 2026 World Cup is the first edition with 48 national teams, which changes the logic of the tournament compared with the previous format of 32 teams. FIFA states that the new system brings 12 groups, an additional knockout round and a total of 104 matches, so the path to the title will be longer and more demanding. That favors national teams with greater squad depth, but it can also open more space for unpredictable outcomes because more matches are played in the early stage, and 32 national teams take part in the knockout stage. For Croatia, that means the group is no longer exclusively a battle for first or second place, but also that possible progress from third position can bring a considerably harder path. In such a system, every match has double value: it brings points, but it also shapes the position in the large elimination bracket.
Because of that, American forecasts should be viewed as a starting point, not as a final assessment of Croatia's possibilities. Goldman Sachs and ESPN offer two different types of signals: one comes from a statistical model, the other from the betting market. Both signals place Croatia outside the narrowest circle of title contenders, but neither can fully measure the experience of a team that played a final and a third-place match in the last two World Cup cycles. Croatia will very quickly get the chance in a group with England, Panama and Ghana to show whether the outside assessments are realistic or overly cautious. The first answer arrives on June 17, when against England it will be seen whether Dalić's team can once again turn the status of an underestimated challenger into an advantage on the pitch.
Sources:
- Business Standard / Bloomberg – report on the Goldman Sachs model and estimates of the chances of winning the 2026 World Cup (link)
- ESPN – overview of betting odds for all 48 national teams at the 2026 World Cup (link)
- FIFA – explanation of the 2026 World Cup format with 48 national teams and the rules for advancing to the knockout stage (link)
- FIFA – official match schedule, stadiums and dates of the 2026 World Cup (link)
- Croatian Football Federation – Croatian national team page and latest update of the squad list for the 2026 World Cup (link)
- Inside FIFA – profile of the Croatian Football Federation and official data on Croatia's best performances at World Cups (link)