Europe enters a summer of uncertainty: the war around Iran, oil and the fragile future of global tourism
The war around Iran and disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have turned the beginning of May 2026 into one of the most uncertain moments for European tourism since the pandemic. While hotel capacities are filling up, cruise ships are confirming routes, and airlines are selling tickets for the peak of the season, the entire sector is overshadowed by the question of whether energy sources, security risks and possible new price increases will change travelers' plans. Tourism has shown exceptional resilience over the past two years, but the current crisis is hitting its most sensitive point: transport, prices and traveler confidence.
According to available data from international energy and tourism institutions, the problem is not only the current price of oil, but the fact that the crisis is happening ahead of the most important period for a large part of the European tourism economy. The summer months bring a large share of annual revenue to hotels, airlines, restaurants, excursion agencies, family accommodations, transport companies and small businesses that depend on seasonal spending. That is why every sign of disruption in flights, fuel or traveler sentiment very quickly moves from geopolitical news into a business problem for thousands of companies.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the center of tourism uncertainty
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy passages. The U.S. Energy Information Administration states that oil flows through that passage in 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025 accounted for more than a quarter of total global maritime oil trade and about one fifth of global consumption of oil and petroleum products. The International Energy Agency points out that in 2025 almost 15 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, which shows how important the bottleneck of the Persian Gulf is for price stability and supply chains.
For European tourism, this may at first glance seem distant, because a large share of crude oil from that region is traditionally exported to Asia. But the consequences of closing or seriously restricting traffic do not remain regional. The price of a barrel of oil, the availability of jet fuel, insurance premiums for ships, logistics costs and financial market expectations are passed on to airline tickets, cruises, ferry connections, road transport and the costs of hotel operations. In a sector that operates with thin margins, a jump in energy prices quickly reduces room for discounts and increases the risk of capacity cuts.
Geopolitical uncertainty is especially awkward because it cannot be planned like a normal seasonal change in demand. Airlines can to some extent protect part of their fuel needs with price hedging contracts, hotels can adjust tariffs, and tour operators can change routes, but no one can completely remove the risk of a sudden disruption of airspace, fuel shortages or changes in security assessments. That is precisely why backup scenarios, and not only the sale of packages, are being discussed more and more often in the European tourism sector.
Aviation is the first line of impact
The most direct pressure is being felt by the aviation industry. Jet fuel is one of the largest costs for airlines, and IATA, in its fuel data, emphasizes that demand for jet fuel in 2025 and 2026 was expected to continue growing, while that fuel represents a relatively small share of total refinery production. This means that disruptions in the oil market do not affect everyone equally: airlines, especially those with a large number of long-haul routes and weaker price protection, quickly feel the change in the calculation.
The consequences are already visible in capacity planning. Some major European carriers warn that higher fuel costs may mean more expensive tickets, fewer frequencies and stricter cost control. Financial statements and market reports from spring 2026 show that Lufthansa expects strong summer demand, but at the same time is counting on large additional fuel costs and the possibility of adjusting its flight schedule. Similar logic applies to other major groups: if fuel becomes more expensive, companies try to preserve profitability through a combination of higher prices, cuts to less profitable flights and the use of more efficient aircraft.
For travelers, such decisions are most often seen through less choice, changes in timetables, connections or rising prices. For destinations, the problem is seen through accessibility. A tourist location that has a good hotel offer, but loses part of its air connections at the peak of the season, may suddenly face a decline in arrivals from more distant markets. This particularly affects destinations that depend on air traffic and travelers with higher purchasing power, because long-haul and connecting flights are the fastest to change when costs become too high.
Europe entered the season strong, but sensitive to prices
Tourism demand in Europe met this crisis in a relatively strong condition. Eurostat estimates that 3.08 billion overnight stays were recorded in tourist accommodation facilities in the European Union in 2025, which was about 61.5 million more than a year earlier. The European Travel Commission, in its reports for the end of 2025, describes stable demand and growth in spending that outpaces growth in arrivals. This means that the sector entered 2026 with good momentum, but also with a clear sign that travelers are choosing ever more carefully how much and where they will spend.
UN Tourism expects continued growth in international tourism in 2026, but with an important caveat: projections depend on favorable economic conditions, the easing of inflation in tourism services and no escalation of geopolitical conflicts. It is precisely that caveat that has now become central. Tourism does not collapse as soon as a crisis appears, but traveler behavior changes. Some people will not cancel their trip, but will shorten it, choose a closer destination, avoid connections or wait for last-minute offers. Some will continue to travel, but with greater pressure on the price of accommodation, food and transport.
For European destinations, this means that strong demand does not guarantee a calm season. The number of bookings may remain good, but profitability may fall if the costs of energy, labor, supply and financing rise. The hotel sector has already faced higher energy and wage bills in recent years, while restaurants and small renters feel more expensive food, drinks and maintenance. If a more expensive arrival at the destination is added to this, tourism enters a zone in which total spending may grow, but disposable income for local service providers does not grow at the same pace.
Cruise ships, hotels and family businesses are looking for backup plans
The crisis is not felt only by airlines. The cruising industry must monitor security assessments, insurance premiums and port availability. If a route approaches crisis areas or depends on wider maritime corridors, companies may change the itinerary, shorten stays in certain ports or increase operating costs. Such changes affect not only passengers on board, but also local communities that count on excursions, spending and fees.
Hotels, campsites and private accommodation face another form of risk. They usually cannot quickly change their offer if the structure of guests changes. If air traffic becomes more expensive, a larger share of demand may shift to regional and road-accessible destinations. This may help places that are easily reached by car, train or bus, but it may harm more distant islands, resorts and cities that depend on international routes. At the same time, travelers arriving by road also feel fuel prices, so that channel is not completely protected either.
The most vulnerable part of the system is often small family businesses. Large hotel chains can negotiate supply, have financial reserves and distribute risk across several markets. Small hospitality businesses, guides, boat rental operators, local carriers and family hotels have less room for error. If the number of arrivals or the price of energy changes for them within a few weeks, a season that looked successful on paper may end with significantly more modest earnings.
Travel prices could become the key topic of the summer
Travelers react not only to security news, but also to the final price of the trip. If airline tickets become more expensive and accommodation remains expensive, demand may be redirected toward shorter stays, less popular dates or alternative destinations. The European Travel Commission has already warned in earlier reports that higher prices shape travelers' decisions, while interest in off-season travel and alternative destinations may help achieve a more even distribution of tourist flows. The current crisis could accelerate precisely that trend.
This does not mean that summer will necessarily bring mass cancellations. Experience after the pandemic showed that the desire to travel remained strong even in periods of inflation. But the difference between desire and realization increasingly depends on the availability of transport and the total cost. A traveler may accept a more expensive ticket if they are traveling once a year on a long-planned vacation, but will have more difficulty accepting the combination of a more expensive flight, more expensive accommodation, higher food prices and uncertainty about the return.
That is exactly why the tourism sector during the summer could depend more than usual on communication. Clear information about flights, cancellation rules, insurance, possibilities to change dates and service stability become part of competitiveness. Destinations that manage to convincingly show that they are accessible, organized and flexible may fare better than those that rely only on reputation and the peak of the season.
The energy crisis reopens the question of tourism resilience
The current disruption shows how dependent global tourism is on energy. An industry that is often viewed through images of holidays, beaches, museums and gastronomy actually rests on a complex network of fuel, air corridors, ports, insurance, payment systems and labor. When one link is disrupted, the effects are transmitted through the entire chain. Because of this, the discussion about tourism is increasingly connected with energy security, climate policy and infrastructure resilience.
Some European destinations have been trying in recent years to reduce dependence on a few peak summer weeks and a few key markets. The development of rail links, the extension of the season, investment in local products, the energy efficiency of hotels and better control of tourist flows are no longer only ecological or urban planning topics. In crises like this, they also become a matter of business survival. A destination that can attract guests from multiple directions and in multiple parts of the year is less exposed to a single shock.
Still, such changes cannot be implemented overnight. Summer 2026 is coming too quickly for the deep dependence on air traffic and fossil fuels to be significantly reduced in a few months. Therefore, the short-term strategy will come down to risk management: monitoring fuel markets, timely price adjustments, flexible reservations, better coordination with carriers and careful capacity planning. In that sense, the tourism season will not only be a test of demand, but also a test of managerial maturity.
Uncertainty does not mean collapse, but it changes the rules of the game
The most important thing is to distinguish uncertainty from collapse. Available data still point to strong interest in travel in Europe, and international organizations are not forecasting the disappearance of demand. But at the same time, they warn that positive scenarios rely on the assumption that geopolitical conflicts will not spread further. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes, part of the pressure on energy sources and carriers could ease. If the crisis is prolonged, the summer could bring more expensive travel, more frequent changes to flight schedules and greater pressure on smaller tourism actors.
For European tourism, this is a reminder that record numbers cannot be viewed separately from global security and energy markets. After years of recovery, the sector is once again entering a season in which success will depend on the ability to adapt quickly. Travel will continue, but its price, accessibility and predictability will be under the stronger influence of events taking place far away from hotel receptions, airports and coastal promenades.
Sources:- U.S. Energy Information Administration – data on the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global oil trade (link)- International Energy Agency – overview of the energy significance of the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil flows (link)- IATA – official overview of the jet fuel market and price movements (link)- IATA – facts on fuel, demand for jet fuel and refinery production (link)- Eurostat – estimate of a record 3.08 billion tourist overnight stays in the EU in 2025 (link)- UN Tourism – World Tourism Barometer and outlook for international tourism in 2026 (link)- European Travel Commission – report on stable European demand and traveler spending (link)
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