Gulf airlines cautiously restore flights as traffic over the Middle East only partially stabilizes
Air traffic in the Middle East is entering a new phase of recovery, but the return of regular services does not mean a return to complete normality. After a period in which airspace closures, security warnings and sudden schedule changes disrupted one of the world's most important connecting networks, major Gulf airlines are expanding operations again, but they are doing so gradually and with constant reservations. Qatar Airways has announced the resumption of passenger flights to Iraq from May 10, 2026, Emirates and Etihad Airways are maintaining reduced but functional networks, while carriers and passengers are simultaneously adapting to longer routes, connection changes and increased operating costs.
According to available data as of May 3, 2026, the recovery of regional air traffic is not taking place equally in all parts of the Middle East. Some routes are returning because of the gradual opening of safe corridors and the re-establishment of operations at major hubs such as Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi. At the same time, traffic remains sensitive to the political and security situation, especially on routes that depend on Iraqi, Iranian, Syrian, Israeli and other regional airspaces. That is precisely why announcements about new or restored flights are, for now, being read more as a sign of controlled normalization than as proof that the crisis is over.
Qatar Airways announces return to Baghdad, Basra and Erbil
The most concrete signal of the restoration of regional connectivity came from Qatar Airways, which announced that from May 10, 2026, it is reintroducing passenger flights to three Iraqi destinations: Baghdad, Basra and Erbil. The company also announced the return of cargo flights to Baghdad from May 7, with those cargo flights, according to the carrier, being one-way from Doha to Baghdad. The restoration of Iraqi routes fits into a broader plan for the gradual return of the network in the Middle East, after previously announced returns of daily flights to Dubai, Sharjah, Bahrain, Damascus and Kozhikode.
For Qatar Airways, Iraq has an importance that goes beyond individual routes. Baghdad, Basra and Erbil are not only destinations for direct passengers, but also points that feed the wider network via Doha, especially toward Asia, Europe, Africa and North America. In a period of instability, the restoration of such routes enables the gradual return of passenger flows, but also cargo, including high-value goods, medical products, commercial shipments and time-sensitive deliveries. Still, the company itself warns that schedules are subject to changes or cancellations due to operational, regulatory, security and other circumstances that are not under its full control.
The restoration of Iraqi routes is especially important because it shows how air carriers are trying to return to markets that are commercially important but demanding in terms of security. Iraq has often been a sensitive point in regional aviation because of changes in airspace availability and risk assessments by international regulators, insurers and airline operations centers. The return of flights to Baghdad, Basra and Erbil therefore cannot be viewed only as a regular network decision, but also as an indicator that at least part of the security conditions is considered predictable enough for the restoration of passenger traffic. That, however, does not remove the need for constant monitoring of the situation.
Emirates operates on a broad but reduced network
Emirates, the largest carrier from Dubai, according to its own operational notices at the end of April 2026, was flying to more than 100 destinations, but with a reduced schedule. The company told passengers that it continues to monitor the situation and adjust operations according to security and regulatory conditions. The emphasis on checking flight status and updating contact details shows that the operational picture remains changeable: even when a flight exists on sale, the final schedule may depend on the state of airspace, crews, aircraft availability, slots and the possibility of rerouting.
Dubai has been built for decades as a global hub for connections between Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia and the Americas. When Middle Eastern airspace closes or is restricted, the effect is felt not only on local flights, but also on intercontinental connections that use Gulf hubs as the geographically shortest and commercially most cost-effective hubs. Emirates therefore tries to maintain a broad network even with a smaller number of frequencies, because continuity of connectivity has direct business value: it protects market share, enables connections and reduces the risk that passenger flows will be shifted in the long term to competing routes via Europe, Turkey, India or East Asia.
For passengers, a reduced schedule means less flexibility, fewer alternative departures on the same day and a greater risk of longer waiting times in the event of disruption. For the company, it means more complex fleet and crew planning, because aircraft on longer detour routes consume more fuel, return to base later and are harder to fit into existing connection waves. In practice, the problem of one closed corridor quickly spreads to dozens of flights that are not necessarily connected with the crisis area, but depend on the same operational chain. For that reason, Emirates' recovery is measured not only by the number of open destinations, but also by the stability of the timetable over several weeks.
Etihad expands its commercial schedule, but flexibility for passengers remains important
Etihad Airways from Abu Dhabi is also gradually returning to a wider scope of flights. According to available company information, passengers with cancelled flights from May 16, 2026, are allowed to request a refund or a free change of booking on Etihad flights until June 15, 2026, while the carrier states that it is operating an expanded commercial schedule between Abu Dhabi and around 80 destinations. Earlier, Etihad announced that from March 6, 2026, it was restoring a limited commercial schedule to a number of key destinations, which shows that the return is taking place in phases, and not in a single move.
Unlike the period of complete suspensions, the current operating model looks more like controlled risk management. Airlines are trying to maintain the core of the network, but at the same time leave room for rebooking, refunds and subsequent changes. This is important because passengers, when buying tickets, increasingly rely on flexibility conditions, especially on routes that include a connection in sensitive zones. In such circumstances, the ticket price is not the only criterion; the reliability of the hub, the possibility of a quick route change and the clarity of communication in the event of cancellation become equally important.
Etihad's position differs from Emirates' in terms of network size, but the challenges are similar. Abu Dhabi relies on international connections and growing transfer traffic, so every restriction of regional airspace affects the planning of arrival and departure waves. If a flight from Asia is delayed because of a longer detour around a closed area, a passenger may miss a connection to Europe or Africa, and the company must provide replacement accommodation, a new ticket or rerouting. Such costs are not immediately visible in the number of published destinations, but they strongly affect profitability and reputation.
IATA records a sharp decline for Middle Eastern carriers in March
The clearest picture of the scale of the disruption is provided by data from the International Air Transport Association. For March 2026, IATA announced that global passenger demand rose by 2.1 percent compared with the year before, but with pronounced regional differences. International traffic overall fell by 0.6 percent, for the first time since March 2021, and IATA directly links that decline with a major reduction in traffic in the Middle East. Middle Eastern carriers recorded a 60.8 percent fall in demand compared with March 2025, capacity was reduced by 56.9 percent, and seat load factor was 67.8 percent.
Those numbers show how strongly the regional security crisis hit companies that otherwise operate as a global bridge between continents. IATA also states that traffic between Europe and Asia increased by 29.3 percent because direct services replaced part of the traffic that had previously passed through the Middle East. This is an important signal for Gulf carriers: while their hubs are weakened, competing models can temporarily take over passengers, especially on routes where airlines have enough aircraft for direct connections. If disruptions are prolonged, temporary changes in passenger habits may become more permanent.
On the other hand, the high level of demand in the rest of the world shows that the problem is not a general decline in the desire to travel, but the availability of safe and reliable routes. This creates room for a faster recovery as soon as air corridors stabilize, but it also increases pressure on carriers to align the schedule of restoration with realistic security assessments. Restoring capacity too quickly can lead to a new wave of cancellations, while restoring it too slowly opens space for competition. That is why Gulf companies are currently seeking a balance between the commercial need for growth and operational caution.
Airspace closures have changed global routes
The crisis showed how dependent modern aviation is on several key air corridors. When parts of the region's airspace were closed or restricted because of conflicts and security risks, the consequences spilled far beyond the Middle East. According to reports from March, leading Middle Eastern carriers temporarily suspended regular commercial flights, while some operations were limited to cargo, repatriation or specially approved flights. Such measures affected transit passengers, tourist programs, business travel and air freight, especially routes between Australia and Europe, Asia and Europe, and Africa and North America.
Airspace is not only a geographical map, but economic infrastructure. A longer route means more fuel, more crew working hours, different maintenance planning and a greater risk of delays. In conditions of rising fuel prices, which are additionally sensitive to political tensions in the Middle East, detour flights can significantly increase the cost per passenger. Companies cannot always immediately pass that cost on to the ticket price, especially if they want to maintain demand, so part of the pressure spills over to profit margins. When capacities are limited, prices on alternative routes can rise because demand remains high and the number of available seats is smaller.
Disruptions also change passenger behavior. Those who usually choose the shortest connection via Gulf hubs may decide on direct flights, connections via Istanbul, European hubs or Asian hubs, even if the ticket is more expensive or the journey longer. Business passengers, who often value reliability and the possibility of last-minute changes the most, are especially sensitive to uncertainty. For airlines, this means that rebuilding trust may take longer than the formal opening of airspace.
Cargo traffic and supply chains follow passenger recovery
Although public attention is most often focused on passenger flights, the recovery of cargo traffic is equally important. Qatar Airways' announcement of the return of cargo service to Baghdad shows that companies are also trying to restore logistics flows that are key for the regional economy. Air cargo is especially important for goods that cannot wait for slower sea or land transport. This group includes pharmaceutical products, spare parts, electronic equipment, valuable shipments, documents and urgent industrial deliveries.
When air cargo is rerouted, the consequences can be felt in supply chains and prices. Longer routes increase transport costs, and less available capacity can lead to congestion at alternative hubs. Gulf airlines have strong cargo divisions precisely because their geographical position allows the connection of several continents within relatively short time frames. If those hubs are restricted, global logistics loses part of its flexibility. Therefore, the restoration of flights to Iraq and other regional points has a broader meaning than the mere return of passenger connections.
Recovery depends on security, regulators and passenger confidence
The return of Gulf airlines to a wider flight schedule does not depend only on commercial demand. Security assessments, civil aviation authorities, international regulators, insurers and operations centers that assess risks in real time have the key say. That is why companies in public notices often emphasize that the safety of passengers and crews is a priority that cannot be compromised. In practice, this means that a route can be opened, restricted or suspended again at very short notice if the security picture changes.
For passengers, the most important thing is therefore to check flight status regularly, especially on the day of travel and after online check-in. Airlines are increasingly asking that contact details in the booking be updated so that passengers can receive notifications about changes, new departure times or cancellations. In conditions of an unstable schedule, the difference between updated and outdated information can mean a missed connection, an unnecessary arrival at the airport or the loss of the right to a faster replacement option.
The broader picture shows that the Middle Eastern sky is indeed gradually opening, but under conditions that are far from the usual predictability. Qatar Airways is announcing a concrete return to Iraqi destinations, Emirates is maintaining a broad but reduced network, and Etihad is expanding its commercial schedule with flexible rules for affected passengers. Still, IATA data on the dramatic fall in regional demand in March is a reminder that recovery cannot be measured only by the number of restored routes. The real test will be the carriers' ability in the coming weeks to maintain continuity of flights, restore passenger confidence and avoid a new wave of disruptions if the security situation worsens again.
Sources:- Qatar Airways – announcement of the resumption of flights to Baghdad, Basra and Erbil from May 10, 2026 (link)- IATA – report on passenger demand in March 2026 and the decline in traffic of Middle Eastern carriers (link)- Emirates – official notices for passengers and updates to the operational schedule (link)- Etihad Airways – flight status, rules for cancelled flights and expanded commercial schedule (link)- Gulf News – overview of Emirates, Etihad, flydubai and Air Arabia operations under conditions of regional disruptions (link)- The Guardian – report on flight suspensions, repatriation flights and the scale of disruptions in March 2026 (link)
Find accommodation nearby
Creation time: 2 hours ago