TUI expects stronger last-minute offers for the eastern Mediterranean, while the west holds prices
TUI Group CEO Sebastian Ebel expects significantly more attractive late offers to appear in the eastern Mediterranean this summer than in the western part of the region, while prices in the most sought-after western Mediterranean destinations could remain stable or rise further. According to his statements reported by Travel Weekly on 15 May 2026, the reason is uneven demand: the western Mediterranean is well booked, while there is still available capacity in some eastern destinations. Ebel singled out Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt as markets where travellers could see better discounts because demand is more cautious than before. Such an assessment comes at a time when TUI is recording a change in customer behaviour, later and later bookings and a shift in demand towards destinations perceived as safer or more stable. For the tourism industry, this means that the summer season is not necessarily weaker in absolute terms, but it has become harder to predict.
The western Mediterranean is better booked, the eastern under pressure from caution
According to Travel Weekly, Ebel said that western Mediterranean countries are very well booked and that those waiting for last-minute packages for those destinations could encounter higher, not lower, prices. In that assessment, he also specifically mentioned Greece, which he said is holding up well this season, although in tourism analyses it is often viewed as part of the broader Mediterranean offer between the western and eastern markets. His message is that waiting until the last moment will not have the same effect in all destinations. Where occupancy is high, travel organisers have less reason to lower prices, while discounts may appear more often in destinations with greater remaining capacity. Such a difference is especially important for travellers who make decisions based on price, but also for hotels, airlines and tour operators that are trying to balance the risk of empty seats and the need to preserve margins.
In its own statement on business expectations, TUI says that the geopolitical situation has led to a partial shift in demand from the eastern to the western Mediterranean. The company specifically listed Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt as affected markets, with the additional impact of the consequences of the hurricane in the Caribbean. According to the same announcement, customers are showing greater restraint and booking closer to the departure date, which reduces revenue visibility and makes capacity planning more difficult. In practice, this means that part of the sales is not necessarily lost permanently, but is shifted towards a shorter period before travel. Still, such a pattern carries greater business risk because decisions about aircraft seats, hotel allotments and prices often have to be made earlier.
Summer booking revenues below last year’s level
In April, TUI announced that booked revenues for summer 2026 in the Markets + Airline segment were then 7 percent lower than a year earlier. According to data reported by Travel Weekly, the decline in the British market amounted to 10 percent, which points to more pronounced restraint among some customers in the United Kingdom. At the same time, the company reduced risk capacity by 4 percent in order to adapt to the geopolitical and competitive environment. Such a reduction in capacity does not necessarily mean withdrawal from individual markets, but rather an attempt to reduce exposure to destinations and dates where demand is weaker or more uncertain. For travellers, this may mean a smaller choice of departures on some routes, but also the possibility of more favourable prices where more capacity remains than current demand.
In the same announcement, TUI stated that hotel occupancy for the second half of the financial year had softened to 7 percent below last year’s level. That figure shows that the pressure does not relate only to flight packages, but also to the accommodation part of the integrated tourism model. TUI is one of Europe’s largest tourism groups and operates through tour operators, aviation, hotels, cruises and destination activities, so changes in one part of the system quickly affect other segments. If sales for the eastern Mediterranean strengthen through late bookings, part of the current shortfall may be reduced during the main season. If customer caution continues, pressure on prices could remain more pronounced in destinations perceived as closer to geopolitical hotspots.
The war in Iran changed expectations and business forecasts
According to TUI Group’s announcement of 22 April 2026, the conflict in the Middle East caused the company around €40 million in costs in March related to the repatriation of travellers and operational disruptions. TUI announced that in March it repatriated around 10,000 guests, including approximately 5,000 passengers from the cruise ships Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 and around 5,000 guests from European source markets. The company additionally stated that another 1,500 crew members were repatriated. Due to the hostilities, Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 remained in the ports of Abu Dhabi and Doha, and the itineraries of those ships were cancelled until mid-May 2026. According to TUI, the ships safely left the Persian Gulf on 19 April, during a pause in hostilities, with the coordination and approvals of the competent authorities.
Because of the same environment, TUI adjusted its profit forecast. The company now expects underlying EBIT for the 2026 financial year in the range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion, while it had previously targeted growth of 7 to 10 percent compared with the previous year. TUI also suspended its revenue guidance until conditions stabilise, while earlier expectations had been revenue growth of 2 to 4 percent. This change shows how much war and wider security uncertainty can affect tourist demand, even when the destinations themselves are not located directly in the conflict area. In tourism, the perception of risk is often almost as important as the operational accessibility of a destination, especially for family travel and package holidays.
Late bookings are becoming a more important part of the season
Ebel, according to Travel Weekly, pointed out that recent research shows summer holidays remain an important priority for consumers. According to him, 45 percent of consumers who are planning a holiday have not yet booked a trip for this season, and among them 38 percent are expected to book between August and October. Such data suggests that part of the market is not withdrawing from travel, but postponing the final decision. The reasons may be prices, security issues, household budgets, weather conditions in northern Europe or waiting for more favourable offers. For tour operators, this creates commercial space, but also pressure because the sales result is increasingly shaped within a shorter time window.
On its pages for the British market, TUI states that last-minute packages are available for travel with departure within six weeks of booking. According to TUI’s description, the offer includes short-haul destinations such as Spain, Greece and Turkey, but also more distant destinations. The company also states that last-minute bookings can sometimes bring the best price, depending on availability and the type of package. Such a commercial model suits a moment in which some customers do not want to commit several months in advance. But at the same time it means that the most favourable prices will probably be selective, linked to specific dates, airports and hotels, and not evenly distributed across the whole Mediterranean.
Why Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt could have more discounts
Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt are listed in TUI’s announcement among the markets particularly affected by the shift in demand connected with the war in Iran and broader caution towards the eastern Mediterranean. This does not mean that these destinations are closed or inaccessible, but that some customers are currently choosing other destinations. When demand moves towards the western Mediterranean, remaining capacities on eastern routes can become the basis for late discounts. Ebel’s statement about “great offers” refers precisely to such a market imbalance: where there are empty places, price becomes an important tool for encouraging sales. For tourism companies, the goal is to fill aircraft and hotels, but without creating the impression that the whole market is being sold off under pressure.
Egypt and Turkey have traditionally been strongly tied to package holidays from European markets, while Cyprus depends on a combination of hotel accommodation, air connections and seasonal demand. In circumstances of increased caution, travellers more often compare cancellation conditions, insurance, security recommendations and distance from areas of conflict. Tour operators therefore have to communicate both the price and the operational safety of travel, not only the attractiveness of the destination. According to the available information, TUI is counting on short-term bookings remaining strong and on the season not being lost. Still, the final result will depend on whether geopolitical circumstances calm down and whether demand returns to the affected destinations in the coming weeks.
Fuel, capacity and prices remain key risks
In April, TUI stated that by 15 April 2026 it had hedged 83 percent of its jet fuel needs for summer 2026 and 62 percent of its needs for winter 2026/2027. The company also announced that more than 80 percent of energy costs for the cruise part of the business in the 2026 financial year were covered by hedging instruments. Such protection does not remove all risks, but it reduces exposure to sudden changes in fuel prices in the short term. For package holiday prices this is important because the aviation cost can have a large share in the total price of a holiday. If fuel becomes more expensive or supply becomes more uncertain, tour operators and airlines have less room for aggressive price reductions, especially on routes that are well booked.
In such an environment, a single price trend should not be expected for the whole Mediterranean. According to Ebel’s assessment, the western Mediterranean could maintain stable or higher prices because it is well booked, while the eastern Mediterranean could offer more favourable late packages because of greater remaining capacity. The difference between these two pictures shows how the tourism market is increasingly divided according to the perception of safety, availability and booking time. Travellers who have flexibility around departure dates and destinations could find more favourable options more easily. Those tied to popular school-holiday dates, specific airports or the most sought-after hotels will probably have less room for savings.
Cruise ships are returning towards the Mediterranean
TUI announced that Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5, after leaving the Persian Gulf, will return to summer itineraries in the Mediterranean from mid-May 2026. At the same time, the company stated that the remaining part of TUI Cruises’ business and the Marella Cruises fleet continue to record a strong booking environment after a positive “wave” season, the traditionally important period for cruise sales at the beginning of the year. This shows that the disruptions did not spill over equally into all parts of the business. Cruise ships were directly affected by operational problems in the Gulf, but demand for other routes remained more resilient. The return of the ships to Mediterranean itineraries will be important for the normalisation of supply in the part of the season in which demand for seaside holidays is most pronounced.
For travellers considering cruises, the difference between cancelled itineraries and active routes remains crucial. According to TUI’s announcement, the cancellations were connected with specific ships and circumstances in the Persian Gulf, while the rest of the cruise business continued with good bookings. In the event of further disruptions, companies can be expected to adjust routes, ports and sailing schedules again according to security assessments and approvals from the authorities. Such changes in the cruise industry are not unusual in crisis periods, but for travellers they can mean a change to planned ports or dates. That is why booking conditions, company notices and travel insurance are especially important for trips that depend on several countries and ports.
What this message means for travellers and the tourism market
Ebel’s statement does not mean that every trip to the eastern Mediterranean will automatically be cheap, nor that all packages for the western Mediterranean will become more expensive. Above all, it points to the direction of the market: capacities and demand are not evenly distributed, so discounts will appear where tour operators have more room for last-minute sales. For consumers who are ready to decide quickly, accept an alternative hotel or change the departure airport, this may open up more favourable opportunities. For those who want an exact destination, type of accommodation and date, earlier booking may still be a safer strategy. This is especially true for destinations that TUI says are well booked.
For the tourism industry, the message is more complex. On the one hand, TUI emphasises that interest in travel has not disappeared and that short-term bookings are strong. On the other hand, the company has already adjusted forecasts, reduced risk capacity and suspended revenue guidance until conditions stabilise. This shows that summer 2026 depends on a later wave of sales more than the industry would like. If weather conditions in northern Europe turn out colder and rainier, Ebel estimates that this could additionally stimulate bookings for July and August. But the final balance between discounts, demand and security caution will become visible only as the season approaches its peak.
Sources: - Travel Weekly – report on Sebastian Ebel’s statements and expected late offers for the eastern Mediterranean (link) - TUI Group – official announcement on the adjustment of the forecast for the 2026 financial year, the impact of the war in Iran, bookings and capacities (link) - TUI Group – official data on the executive board and extension of CEO Sebastian Ebel’s term of office (link) - TUI UK – description of last-minute packages and deadlines for travel with departure within six weeks of booking (link)