Yesterday, today, and tomorrow: the war in Ukraine, tariffs and inflation, and what it means for your money, prices, and security

In the last 24 hours, the world has again shown how quickly “big politics” spills over into everyday life. Yesterday, February 23, 2026, was dominated by themes of war and security in Europe, trade moves and tariffs that change prices, and tensions in the Middle East that affect energy and the sense of security. Today, February 24, 2026, some of those stories are getting “deadlines” and concrete consequences: meetings, speeches, data, and decisions that markets and institutions follow in real time. Tomorrow, February 25, 2026, figures and announcements arrive that often decide whether loan installments, fuel prices, and household costs will rise, or whether things will at least briefly calm down.

For an ordinary person, it comes down to a few questions: will the everyday basket and imported goods get more expensive, will interest rates continue to squeeze the household budget, how safe are travel and work, and how much “digital” risks (fraud, blackmail, data leaks) are moving closer to the average wallet. What is happening with energy also matters: every sign of stronger tensions or supply disruptions very quickly turns into more expensive fuel, more expensive delivery, and, indirectly, more expensive everything.

What is worth watching tomorrow is not only “what happened,” but “what can change the situation.” Inflation data, budgets, central bankers’ speeches, and energy releases often feel boring at first, but in practice they decide how much we will pay for a loan, how much heating will cost, and how willing employers will be to hire and raise wages.

In that mix of risks and opportunities, the biggest risks are further price increases due to tariffs and logistics, and rising uncertainty due to security threats (from drones and sabotage to cyberattacks). The biggest opportunities are in keeping a cool head and good preparation: comparing prices and contracts, smart planning of larger purchases, strengthening digital security, and tracking key releases that can flip trends in a few hours.

Yesterday: what happened and why you should care

Ukraine and European security: the war enters a new phase of pressure

Yesterday, February 23, 2026, the focus was on how the war in Ukraine is spilling over into European security and political decisions. According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia, in his words, is using “negotiation games,” and that without firm security guarantees any ceasefire can become only a pause for a new escalation. For the public, his call for the European Union to tie Ukraine more concretely to the EU with timelines and guarantees is also important, because it affects the continent’s long-term stability. (Source)

For an ordinary person, the consequences are very practical: any prolongation of the war increases the risk of disruptions in energy, pressure on state budgets (more for defense, less room for relief), and rising security costs. This can be seen in insurance prices, in companies’ investment decisions, and also in changes to travel advisories and travel conditions. If you live or work in sectors sensitive to logistics (transport, manufacturing, tourism), messages like this mean uncertainty will not “switch off” quickly.

“Coalitions of the willing” and divisions in Europe: who bears the burden

Yesterday it was also openly clear that European countries are not fully aligned on what the next steps should look like. Le Monde writes about European debates and scenarios in which some countries advocate stronger engagement, while others prefer an approach that avoids direct escalation. Regardless of which model prevails, the common denominator is: higher defense spending and longer-lasting pressure on capacities. (Source)

For citizens, this means that in the coming months and years they should get used to public debates about budgets, procurement, and priorities: from infrastructure to social measures. In practice, part of state spending goes to security, and part to mitigating the consequences of price increases. If you manage a family budget, the message is simple: a period of “shocks” may last, so it is rational to have a financial reserve and avoid taking on overly large commitments at the edge of your capacity.

Trade tariffs and “rules of the game”: import prices and business uncertainty

Yesterday and in recent days, one topic has risen to the top of economic risks: tariffs and trade rules in the United States. According to The Wall Street Journal, after legal and political upheavals around tariffs, U.S. President Donald Trump announced raising a new global tariff to 15 percent as a replacement for part of the levies that had been challenged. That is a message that markets read as: uncertainty continues, it just changes shape. (Source)

For an ordinary person, tariffs are most often seen only on the shelf: more expensive imported products, more expensive components, more expensive repairs. Even when you buy “domestic,” part of the inputs are imported, and part of the price is logistics. If tariffs intensify the chain reaction, substitute products also become more expensive. It is reasonable today to think about two things: first, plan bigger purchases (tech, tools, parts) smartly and compare prices; second, in business prepare for negotiations on deadlines and prices, because suppliers often first “freeze” offers until the situation becomes clearer.

Gaza and fragile ceasefires: security and energy in the same package

In the Middle East there is still no stability that would inspire confidence. The Associated Press reported earlier in February that Israeli airstrikes and armed incidents continued to undermine fragile ceasefire agreements, with new civilian casualties and political accusations from both sides. And even when such developments are not tied to one exact minute of yesterday, the atmosphere and tempo of escalation are part of the context that markets read every day. (Source)

For an ordinary person, the link is often indirect but real: tensions in the region increase the risk premium in energy, transport insurance, and delivery prices. Whenever you notice fuel “jumping” without a clear local reason, the reason is often a combination of geopolitical fear and market expectations. The advice is practical: do not buy in panic, but follow official data on inventories and trends, because they usually bring the story back to more realistic ground.

Monetary policy as an everyday problem: interest, loans, and wages

Yesterday it was clear that central banks are still trying to keep inflation under control, and that every signal about future rates is watched under a magnifying glass. The Federal Reserve listed a series of officials’ appearances in its public calendar for this week, including speeches scheduled for February 24. Such speeches are often “soft” signals, but markets read them as a clue as to whether rates will remain high or whether there will be room for easing. (Source)

For citizens, that means: loan, lease, and card installments do not depend on just one meeting, but on an entire series of signals and data. If you are planning a loan or refinancing, it is reasonable to follow trends, not one statement. In practice: a fixed rate brings peace of mind, a variable rate brings a chance, but requires a more resilient budget. In business: if rates stay high, investments cool, and employers hire more cautiously. That does not have to mean a crisis, but it means slower dynamics and more negotiating.

Cyber risks are becoming a “social risk”: blackmail, scams, and leaks

In 2026, cyber risks look less and less like a topic for IT departments, and more and more like a household topic. In February, the World Economic Forum highlighted risks such as ransomware and uneven “cyber resilience” through its trend overview, where small and medium entities are often the most vulnerable. (Source)

For an ordinary person, that translates into something very concrete: more scam attempts, more fake messages “from the bank,” and more blackmail after data theft. Yesterday, like many days, it was important to remind yourself that the cheapest protection is discipline: double-check links, 2FA wherever you can, and a separate email address for registrations that are not critical. If such advice seems “boring,” remember that the goal is that nothing “happens” to you, not that you are interesting to hackers.

Inflation in Europe: tomorrow a number arrives that changes the mood

Eurostat’s euro-indicators calendar for February clearly shows that the release of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for January 2026 is planned for February 25. That is not just statistics: that data guides expectations about interest rates and purchasing power. (Official document)

For households, this means that the “feeling of price increases” can tomorrow turn into a political and financial signal: if inflation is stubborn, pressure grows for rates to stay higher; if it eases, hope grows that borrowing costs will gradually decline. It is not about tomorrow’s bill at the store immediately being smaller, but about whether the trend will turn in the coming months. That is the difference between “constant tightening of the belt” and “gradual breathing.”

Energy and oil: tomorrow the market watches inventories, and you watch fuel prices

Economic calendars for February 25 announce the release of U.S. oil inventory data (EIA), which often moves energy prices and market sentiment. When inventories change unexpectedly, fuel prices react, and then delivery costs as well. (Source)

For an ordinary person, that is the quiet mechanism you do not see until the bill arrives: more expensive logistics means more expensive groceries, more expensive consumer goods, and more expensive services. You do not need to live “by the stock exchange,” but it is worth watching the trend: if fuel prices rise for several weeks in a row, planning travel and larger purchases becomes smart, not paranoid.

Today: what it means for your day

Tariffs and prices: how to buy without paying a “panic tax”

Today, February 24, 2026, after signals of new tariff moves in the U.S., the most important thing is to avoid panic buying and “overpaying” because of rumors. If retailers expect instability, some of them will raise prices in advance or shorten offer validity periods.

• Practical consequence: imported goods and technology may become more expensive or have longer delivery times.
• What to watch: “sales” that last briefly and return conditions that change without a clear explanation.
• What can be done immediately: compare the price with 2 to 3 retailers and check whether more expensive substitutes are bundled in.

If you are buying more expensive tech, separate need from want: what you need for work or school comes first, and an “upgrade” can wait until the rules settle. In business terms, today is a good day to review supplier contracts: are prices fixed, how long are offers valid, and who bears the risk of changing conditions.

Interest and loans: listen to signals, but watch your own budget

The Federal Reserve listed officials’ appearances for today in its calendar, which markets often read as a signal about the direction of monetary policy. (Official document)

• Practical consequence: any hint of “tighter” rates can keep loans expensive and pressure installments.
• What to watch: changes in reference rates and messages about inflation, because that drives banks’ expectations.
• What can be done immediately: calculate how much your budget can handle a 10 to 20 percent installment increase.

If you are already indebted, today’s focus is not predicting the market, but controlling risk: do you have a three-month reserve, can you cut unnecessary costs, and do you have the option to fix part of your obligations. If you are only planning a loan, today is a good day for a cold comparison: APR, insurance, fees, and early repayment terms.

Europe and inflation: preparing for tomorrow’s release

Eurostat releases the HICP for January 2026 tomorrow, and today is the day when expectations and “price narratives” are set. (Official document)

• Practical consequence: if inflation comes in higher than expected, interest rates and borrowing costs fall harder.
• What to watch: media interpretations that mix monthly and annual price changes.
• What can be done immediately: prepare a household spending plan for three scenarios: “same,” “a bit worse,” “a bit better.”

For a household, it is useful today to see what “eats” your budget the most: energy, food, rent, or a loan. Inflation is not the same for everyone, so it is more practical to keep your own mini-statistics (the top three monthly items) than to wait for someone to tell you an “average.”

Energy costs: fuel prices and the logic of inventories

Today the market is already positioning for tomorrow’s oil and fuel inventory data, and that can amplify daily price swings. (Source)

• Practical consequence: short-term spikes can make travel and delivery more expensive, especially on longer routes.
• What to watch: “ad hoc” price hikes without a clear reason, especially when markets are nervous.
• What can be done immediately: plan refueling rationally and avoid buying at peak times.

If you work in logistics or a fuel-dependent business, today is a day to check contracts and fuel surcharges. For a household: if fuel is a big part of your cost, consider combining errands into one route and reducing “empty drives.”

Ukraine: news that changes the sense of security, but also budgets

Today is the fourth anniversary of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that usually means intensified diplomatic activity and public messages. The Guardian reported yesterday on the continuation of strikes and political tensions within the EU over sanctions and energy, which is the framework that continues today. (Source)

• Practical consequence: greater uncertainty usually means more expensive insurance and more cautious business in the region.
• What to watch: disinformation and viral videos without confirmation, especially about “turning points” on the ground.
• What can be done immediately: follow verified sources and official statements; do not share unconfirmed content.

In practice, today is a day when it pays to have “information hygiene”: one reliable source route is better than ten half-informations. If you work with clients in multiple countries, it is good to agree in advance on how risks and deadlines are handled in case of disruptions.

Cybersecurity: a small habit that saves a big problem

WEF risk overviews emphasize that ransomware and scams are spreading, and the most vulnerable are those who think they “are not interesting.” (Source)

• Practical consequence: account theft or blackmail can block work, payments, and access to documents.
• What to watch: messages that demand an urgent payment, a password reset, or “identity confirmation” via a link.
• What can be done immediately: enable 2FA on email and banking accounts and make a backup of important files.

If you have a sole proprietorship or a small business, today is a good day for minimum protection: separate user accounts, updates, a backup that is not always connected, and an agreement on who does what in case of an incident. These are boring measures, but they are usually cheaper than one “bad click.”

Tomorrow: what can change the situation

• Eurostat releases the HICP for January, which can shift expectations about interest rates and prices. (Official document)
• Germany: consumer confidence releases and final GDP can change the picture of growth in Europe. (Source)
• USA: weekly mortgage and interest data can show how much high rates are holding back the real estate market. (Source)
• USA: the EIA oil inventory release often moves fuel prices and global delivery costs. (Source)
• South Africa: the budget speech can affect markets and sentiment toward emerging-market currencies. (Source)
• European institutions monitor inflation and sentiment, which can influence expectations about the ECB’s next steps. (Official document)
• New central banker speeches can amplify daily swings in exchange rates and stock prices. (Official document)
• In the United Kingdom, regulatory deadlines for the energy price cap can affect expectations of household costs. (Source)
• Continued diplomatic activity around Ukraine can change the tone of sanctions and security messages in Europe. (Source)
• Markets will watch every new tariff announcement because it quickly spills over into imported goods prices. (Source)

In brief

• If your budget is tight, plan a three-month reserve and reduce obligations that depend on interest rates.
• If you are buying tech or imported goods, compare multiple offers and avoid panic buying due to tariff rumors.
• If fuel is a significant part of your costs, follow inventory trends and plan travel without “empty driving.”
• If you work internationally, agree in advance on deadlines and clauses for delays due to logistics and uncertainty.
• If you worry about prices, tomorrow’s European inflation release is a trend signal, not an instant change on your bill.
• If you use online banking, enable 2FA and make an offline backup of key documents today.
• If you follow war news, stick to verified sources and ignore viral “turnarounds” without confirmation.
• If your business depends on consumption, watch consumer confidence and growth signals because that often foreshadows demand changes.