Earth's orbit is becoming an increasingly crowded area, turning into a complex and potentially dangerous environment. With more than 11,000 active satellites currently orbiting our planet and tens of thousands more planned for launch in the coming years, space is becoming a premium resource. An additional and perhaps even greater danger is posed by space debris. It is estimated that there are more than 1.2 million pieces of space junk larger than one centimeter, and each of these fragments, regardless of its size, travels at speeds that make it a deadly projectile. In such conditions, the risk of a collision in orbit is no longer a hypothetical threat, but a daily operational concern for satellite operators worldwide. Recognizing the seriousness of the situation, the European Space Agency (ESA) is investing heavily in the development of advanced automation technologies that can help respond more effectively to these growing risks.

The heart of ESA's strategy: The CREAM project

At the very center of these efforts is a project called CREAM (Collision Risk Estimation and Automated Mitigation). This project represents a key element of the wider ESA Space Safety Programme, and its primary goal is to radically change the way threats in space are managed. The project's mission is multifaceted: to reduce the enormous burden and workload placed on human operators, to drastically decrease the number of false alarms that consume time and resources, to shorten the reaction time needed to perform collision avoidance maneuvers, and, ultimately, to significantly improve the safety of every single space mission. The project, which began in 2020, is now entering a critical phase of operational testing of ground systems and preparations for technology demonstrations directly in space orbit.

The cost of collision avoidance: A complex process with high stakes

Assessing the risk of a potential collision and, if it proves necessary, designing and executing an avoidance maneuver are two extremely labor-intensive tasks. Current processes rely heavily on human analysis and decisions. Communication between different satellite operators is often improvised, conducted ad hoc, is not always straightforward, and, in some situations, can lead to additional complications and misunderstandings. The vision for the CREAM system was developed precisely to alleviate this enormous manual effort. The idea is for this automated system to take over a significant number of related activities: from the continuous evaluation of potential close encounters (conjunctions) and the generation of optimal plans for avoidance maneuvers, to providing support in the decision-making process. The system is also conceived as a platform for coordination with other operators and as a monitoring tool that could be used by future space traffic regulators.

One of the key components of the system is being designed with the goal of enabling contact between a diverse ecosystem of stakeholders. By connecting satellite operators, Space Situational Awareness (SSA) service providers, regulatory bodies, and independent observers, CREAM can facilitate the entire decision-making process. This is particularly important in complex scenarios where a collision between two active satellites is threatened, as opposed to a situation with a passive piece of space debris. In the future, CREAM could also facilitate negotiations between operators, minimizing the need for human intervention. In cases of disagreement over a proposed solution, the system could escalate the problem to a specialized mediation service, thereby ensuring flexibility, transparency, and fairness in dispute resolution.

From the ground to orbit: The system's evolution

At this moment, the prototype components of the CREAM system, developed by leading technology companies GMV and Guardtime, are being integrated into a common platform led by GMV. The system, which is still ground-based at this stage, already has the capability to issue warnings about possible collisions and to generate concrete, effective avoidance maneuvers. These recommendations are sent to the mission's ground segment for implementation, and the system also provides support in coordination between the involved parties. The project is now entering an extended pilot phase of use, during which new technologies will be added to improve the decision-making process. In parallel, in-orbit demonstrations are also being intensively prepared. These include so-called "piggyback missions," where the system will be placed on existing satellites as a digital payload, but the launch of a dedicated, devoted CREAM demonstration mission in orbit is also planned.

Supporting sustainability standards in space

The contribution of the CREAM project goes beyond mere collision avoidance and the prevention of new debris creation. The integration of a CREAM component directly onto spacecraft can, as a technological element, facilitate the much-needed transition in the regulatory environment of space traffic management. The problem with establishing any kind of "traffic rules" in space depends not only on the need to achieve a global consensus on these rules but also on the availability of technologies that would make their application possible. It's a kind of "chicken and egg" problem. CREAM can support future frameworks for space traffic management by offering a standardized set of tools that allows operators to adhere to best practices and rules, and regulators to monitor their compliance. It is designed to be extremely adaptable, allowing even non-technical users to define standards within the system that will evolve over time. This flexibility ensures the long-term relevance of the project as best practices, international norms, and the technologies themselves mature.