Tourists between safety and money: European travel enters a zone of uncertainty because of the war with Iran
The conflict connected to Iran is no longer just a geopolitical news story and a topic of diplomatic disputes, but also a very concrete problem for travellers planning spring and summer journeys to Europe or from Europe to Asia and the Middle East. The closure and avoidance of part of the airspace, flight cancellations, longer routes, more expensive carrier operations and different refund rules have created a situation in which many travellers do not know whether they should cancel the arrangement themselves or wait for the airline or travel organiser to do so. This is precisely the key question now, because the answer directly determines whether the traveller will receive a full refund, replacement transport or only limited compensation under the conditions of the purchased ticket.
According to the applicable rules of the European Union, passengers have strong protection when the carrier cancels a flight, but that protection is not the same in every situation. Additional confusion is created by the fact that security reasons and armed conflict are a typical example of extraordinary circumstances. This means that companies generally still have to offer a refund or rerouting, but very often do not have to pay the standard monetary compensation that is otherwise sought in cases of delays or cancelled flights. In other words, the right to a refund and the right to compensation are not the same, and many travellers only find this out when they try to submit a claim.
Why the problem is spilling over into European tourism as well
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency EASA published several safety warnings at the end of February and the beginning of March 2026 for the airspace of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf after American-Israeli strikes on targets in Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks. Such warnings do not automatically mean a complete suspension of all flights, but in practice they strongly affect route planning, slot availability, the cost of operations and airline decisions on which routes to suspend temporarily and which to continue with longer detour corridors. When traffic is disrupted in an area that serves as an important bridge between Europe, Asia and Gulf hubs, the consequences no longer remain only in the conflict region. They spill over into connections, tourist packages, business travel and ticket prices on the wider European market.
Some carriers have already temporarily suspended or restricted traffic to certain destinations in the Middle East, while European political reactions have additionally shown how serious the situation is. On 30 March 2026, Spain confirmed that it does not allow its airspace for American military operations connected to the war against Iran, which further highlighted how security and political uncertainty is spreading across the European area. For civilian travellers, this does not mean that European tourism has stopped, but it does mean that this is no longer an isolated problem of several routes to Tehran or Tel Aviv. It is a disruption that can also affect a traveller from Zagreb, Split, Vienna or Munich who is only connecting through major transit points or has booked a package holiday linked to a carrier affected by a change in the flight network.
What a traveller in the EU gets when the airline cancels a flight
The basic rules for air passengers in the European Union still derive from Regulation 261/2004. When an airline cancels a flight, the traveller has the right to choose between a refund and rerouting on another flight under comparable conditions, that is, rebooking at a later date if that is what they want. In addition, in certain situations the carrier must also provide care, which includes meals, refreshments and, if necessary, accommodation and transport to the accommodation. This is especially important in a crisis caused by war, because in practice travellers often focus only on the issue of compensation and forget that they also have the right to assistance while waiting for a solution.
However, this is where the key difference comes that determines most disputes. If the cancellation is the consequence of extraordinary circumstances that could not have been avoided even if the carrier had taken all reasonable measures, standard monetary compensation generally does not belong to the traveller. War events, missile attacks, airspace closures and security decisions by regulators are typical examples of such circumstances. This nevertheless does not abolish the right to a refund or alternative transport. The traveller, therefore, may have the right to reimbursement of the ticket cost and necessary assistance, but not to the additional 250, 400 or 600 euros in compensation that are often mentioned in general guides to passenger rights.
The European consumer framework additionally emphasises deadlines. When the traveller chooses a refund instead of rerouting, the airline must refund the ticket price within seven days. In practice, the problem is often greater when the ticket was purchased through an intermediary, an online agency or a platform, because in that case the money does not always go directly from the carrier to the traveller. During 2025, precisely because of such cases, the European Commission further pressured online intermediaries to ensure clearer information and refunds within a reasonable period, which shows that the formal right and actual enforcement are still not the same.
The biggest mistake travellers make: they cancel the ticket themselves too early
In circumstances in which news is published every day about missiles, airspace closures and flight suspensions, many travellers instinctively want to give up travelling immediately. But this is often the most financially unfavourable move. If the traveller themselves cancels an ordinary airline ticket before the carrier officially changes or cancels the flight, the refund is usually determined according to the fare rules of the purchased ticket. With the cheapest fares, this can mean a very limited refund or a total loss of the amount, except for charges that are refunded under the rules.
That is why in the current crisis it is crucial to distinguish between two situations. The first is the one in which the flight is still formally active, but the traveller no longer wants to travel out of caution. The second is the one in which the company has already cancelled the flight, significantly changed the departure time, changed the route or can no longer provide the service as contracted. Only in that second situation do EU rules most often open the way to a full refund or rerouting. In other words, fear of disruption in itself is not always sufficient for the same scope of rights that arises when the carrier officially intervenes in the booking.
This, of course, does not mean that the traveller should passively wait without any preparation. It is reasonable to immediately check the flight status, fare conditions, carrier notices, warnings of foreign ministries and communication from the travel organiser. It is equally important to keep all messages, screenshots and possible offers for a replacement flight or voucher. In a later dispute, it is often the documentation that decides whether the traveller can prove that the company cancelled the service, that it did not offer a timely alternative or that the cost the traveller paid themselves was necessary and reasonable.
When a package holiday gives broader protection than an ordinary plane ticket
Travellers who did not buy only a flight, but a package holiday that includes at least two services, for example transport and accommodation, are in a different legal position. They are subject to EU Directive 2015/2302 on package travel and linked travel arrangements. Those rules give travellers broader protection, especially when extraordinary and unavoidable circumstances at the destination or in its immediate vicinity significantly affect the performance of the package or the transport of travellers to the destination. That standard is currently exceptionally important for everyone who has organised travel to regions or through hubs affected by war and security restrictions.
If such circumstances are met, the traveller may terminate the contract without paying a termination fee, and the organiser must return all payments made without undue delay and no later than within 14 days from termination of the contract. It is important to understand here that what is assessed is not only whether there is a formal travel ban, but also whether the situation significantly affects the safety or feasibility of the trip. In recent case law, the Court of Justice of the European Union further clarified that extraordinary circumstances do not include only situations in which travel is literally impossible, but also those in which it could be carried out only with a serious risk to the health and safety of travellers.
For the tourism market this is a particularly sensitive issue because travel organisers often try to assess when the moment has come to activate extraordinary circumstances, while travellers at the same time want a quick and unequivocal decision. Premature cancellation by the traveller can open a discussion about regular cancellation costs, while waiting too long by the organiser creates dissatisfaction and legal uncertainty. In such cases, official warnings, the state of transport connections, the availability of safe routes and the organiser’s ability to perform the contracted package without significant deviation from what was sold become decisive.
Why deadlines matter, but are not the only problem
On paper, the rules appear relatively clear. For a cancelled flight, the traveller chooses a refund or rerouting, and the refund should arrive within seven days. For a package holiday, in the case of extraordinary circumstances, the full refund should arrive within 14 days. In reality, however, the biggest problems arise at three points: with intermediaries, with vouchers and with changes that are not formally called a cancellation, but for the traveller mean a substantially different trip from the one they bought.
The first problem is online agencies and booking platforms through which tickets were purchased. When the money first passes through an intermediary, the traveller often finds themselves between two parties that refer responsibility to each other. The second problem is vouchers. They can be a practical solution for some travellers, but consumer organisations have been warning for years that a voucher must not be imposed as the only option when the law provides for a monetary refund. The third problem is the so-called operational adjustments: drastically prolonged connections, transfer to another airport, a multi-day departure delay or an itinerary that formally exists, but has realistically lost its purpose for the traveller. In such situations, the legal qualification often determines whether the case will be treated as a cancellation, a significant change or merely a permitted adjustment.
For travellers, this means that it is not enough just to read the subject line of the e-mail sent by the airline or travel agency. It is necessary to check whether an essential element of the journey is changing, whether an alternative has been offered, how long the delay lasts, whether the new route covers the same destination and whether the traveller can still achieve the purpose of the trip because of the change. It is precisely at this level of detail that the biggest disputes arise, but also the biggest differences between those who receive a full refund and those who are left only with partial compensation.
Will European travellers pay more expensive tickets this summer as well
Although refund rules interest most those whose trip has already been disrupted, the wider effect of the crisis could also be seen in prices. When a large number of carriers must avoid sensitive zones, flights become longer and operational costs rise. Added to that are higher insurance costs, possible changes in fleet scheduling and additional pressure on the most important transit hubs. All of this does not automatically have to lead to a lasting wave of price increases, but it increases the likelihood of more expensive tickets on some routes between Europe and Asia, as well as on lines that depend on connections through the Middle East.
For European tourism, it is especially important that the consequences are not distributed evenly. Travellers flying within Europe often will not feel dramatic disruption, while those travelling on longer intercontinental routes, circular trips or arrangements with several linked services may be exposed to multiple risk. It is enough for one segment of the trip to be cancelled or significantly changed for the profitability and feasibility of the entire arrangement to change. That is the reason why travel agencies, insurers and consumer services have in recent weeks recorded increased enquiries precisely about whether the traveller should wait for the organiser’s official decision or act independently.
What is now the most rational thing to do
A traveller who has booked a European trip connected with transport through affected routes should first determine whether they bought only an airline ticket or a package holiday, because the legal framework depends on that. Then they should check whether the carrier has already announced a cancellation, a significant change or the possibility of a free change. If the flight has not been formally touched, and the traveller wants to withdraw solely as a precaution, they should carefully study the fare conditions before making any move. If a package holiday has been purchased, it is crucial to seek written confirmation from the organiser about the status of the trip and an explanation of whether the package can be performed without significant safety or logistical disruption.
It is equally important to distinguish right from assessment. Not all disruptions are automatically grounds for a full refund if it is a matter of the traveller’s voluntary withdrawal, but armed conflict, airspace closure and regulator safety warnings clearly raise the risk threshold to a level that neither travellers nor the industry can ignore. In such an environment, the best protected are those who react calmly, in writing and in a documented way: they do not impulsively accept the first voucher if they want a refund, they do not cancel by themselves without checking the consequences and they do not rely only on a telephone conversation without a written record.
For the European tourism industry, this is another resilience test after several years marked by a pandemic, inflationary shocks, strikes and geopolitical crises. For travellers, however, the question is much simpler and much more personal: will they be able to travel safely and, if the trip collapses, will they get their money back without months of wrangling. At this moment, the answer depends most on who cancelled the service, what exactly was purchased and whether the change can be proved by official notices and documents, and not merely by a general impression that the situation has become too risky.
Sources:- EASA – safety bulletin on the airspace of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, with a description of the strikes of 28 February 2026 and the risk assessment (link)- Your Europe / European Union – overview of air passenger rights in the EU, including cancellations, rerouting, assistance and rules on extraordinary circumstances (link)- EUR-Lex – Regulation (EC) 261/2004, the basic legal framework for air passenger rights in the EU (link)- European Commission – page on the Package Travel Directive and linked travel arrangements and the status of its revision (link)- Your Europe – passenger rights for package holidays and linked travel services in the EU (link)- EUR-Lex – judicial and legislative clarifications on a full refund within 14 days in the case of termination of a package holiday due to extraordinary circumstances (link)- The Guardian – confirmation that on 30 March 2026 Spain closed its airspace to American military operations connected to the war with Iran, as an indicator of the spread of European security and political pressure (link)- Euronews / Associated Press – overview of extended flight suspensions and network adjustments of European and global airlines towards affected destinations in March 2026 (link)
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