The shortage of aviation fuel is increasingly changing international routes: airlines are cutting routes, and passengers are facing more uncertain schedules
Global air traffic is entering a new period of disruption in which the price and availability of aviation fuel are spilling over ever more directly into flight schedules. What until recently was mostly viewed as a cost pressure for carriers is now turning into an operational problem: some companies are shortening networks, postponing expansion, merging frequencies or completely abolishing less profitable international routes. The lines that are felt most are those that consume a lot of fuel, have thinner margins or depend on airports where supply chains are already under pressure. The focus is on long intercontinental connections, transatlantic flights, European short and medium routes that feed major hubs, but also markets in Africa and Asia where fuel costs are already traditionally harder to predict. According to available industry data, it is a combination of more expensive Jet A1 fuel, supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions and increasingly cautious capacity planning ahead of the busiest months of the year.
Fuel is once again becoming the key boundary of air traffic growth
Aviation fuel is one of the largest individual costs for airlines, so changes in its price quickly change the economics of routes. When fuel becomes more expensive, the most vulnerable lines become those with low load factors, seasonal fluctuations, high operating costs or long flights that require larger quantities of fuel and less room for error in planning. That is why cuts do not always have to mean that demand does not exist; they often mean that, with the new fuel price, existing demand is no longer enough for the route to remain profitable. In practice, this can result in fewer weekly departures, temporary suspensions, rerouting passengers through other hubs or complete withdrawal from certain markets.
The International Air Transport Association regularly publishes an aviation fuel price index, and its data serve as an important indicator of pressure on the industry. According to those data, the price of fuel remains one of the key elements affecting airlines' global bill, with a direct effect on capacity planning, ticket prices and profitability. In the United States, a separate daily Airlines for America index showed at the end of April 2026 a price of 4.19 dollars per gallon for the average of selected markets, which illustrates the level of cost faced by carriers in one of the world's largest aviation markets. Although prices differ by region, the direction is clear enough for the industry: fuel is no longer just an item on the balance sheet but a factor that directly determines which routes will remain in the flight schedule.
Europe fears deeper supply disruptions
Particular concern has developed in Europe, where part of the industry fears that disruptions in the Middle East and difficult passage through important maritime routes could cause a shortage of kerosene for aircraft. Airports Council International Europe warned the European Commission that, if stable passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored in the short term, the European Union could enter a phase of systematic aviation fuel shortage. Such a warning does not mean that all airports simultaneously ran out of fuel, but that the risk of uneven availability, rationing, more expensive supply and sudden operational decisions at the level of individual airports or carriers is increasing.
The problem is additionally sensitive in the industry because air traffic cannot easily switch to alternative fuel overnight. Aircraft depend on certified fuel, supply logistics include refineries, tankers, storage facilities, pipelines, suppliers and airport systems, and a disruption in one part of the chain can quickly spill over into the flight schedule. Even when there is enough fuel in one region, that does not mean that it is available on time at the airport from which a specific flight must be operated. That is why, in the current crisis, the discussion is not only about the price of a barrel of oil but also about the physical availability of the product that the aviation industry needs at an exact moment and in an exact place.
Lufthansa announced one of the largest cuts in Europe
The most visible European example comes from the Lufthansa Group, which, according to reports by the Associated Press and other specialized media, announced the cutting of around 20,000 short-haul flights by October 2026. The group, which besides Lufthansa also includes other European carriers, linked the decision to rising fuel prices and the need to reduce consumption, with savings of approximately 40,000 metric tons of fuel being mentioned. The cuts are aimed primarily at short European routes and part of the capacity that is less profitable under the new circumstances, especially in the system of major hubs such as Frankfurt and Munich.
This move is important because it shows that the crisis does not stop only at smaller or financially weaker carriers. Lufthansa is one of the most important European airline groups, and its capacity reduction sends a signal that even large systems with developed supply contracts must adjust their network when fuel prices and availability become too unstable. For passengers, this does not necessarily mean mass cancellation of all international connections, but it does mean a greater possibility of timetable changes, rerouting through another airport, reduced flight choice and higher prices on lines where capacity is reduced.
Abuja, London and the African market under additional pressure
The original reports on the crisis also specifically mention the connection between Abuja and London, as a symbol of broader pressure on routes connecting African markets with Europe. For such lines, fuel is a decisive item because they are operated over longer distances, with complex competition, currency risks and often more expensive local supply. In Nigeria, the problem became even sharper due to the strong increase in the price of Jet A1 fuel. Local media reported that Nigerian aviation operators warned of a possible suspension of domestic operations from April 20, 2026, if fuel costs were not brought under control, while the federal government called on companies to abandon the suspension of flights and refrain from a sudden increase in ticket prices.
According to available information from Nigeria, the price of aviation fuel there rose severalfold in a short period, which created pressure on carriers that already operate in an environment of high inflation, currency fluctuations and limited availability of foreign exchange. Such a context is particularly important for international routes because the cost of fuel, leasing, maintenance and spare parts is often calculated in foreign currencies, while part of the revenue is earned on the local market. When fuel suddenly becomes more expensive, the carrier must choose between increasing prices, reducing frequencies, postponing expansion or completely withdrawing from less sustainable routes. This is the reason why some Africa-Europe connections, including routes to London, are viewed as a vulnerable part of the global network.
Transatlantic routes and long flights have the hardest time with expensive fuel
Long international flights are particularly sensitive because they consume large quantities of fuel and require stable demand in both directions. If the price of fuel rises sharply, companies first reassess routes that have weaker load factors outside the peak season or rely on promotional ticket prices. In such circumstances, transatlantic routes can become financially unsustainable faster than short routes, although some short flights can also be abolished if they mainly serve as feeders for passengers to larger hubs. Reports of withdrawals or reductions of individual lines, including examples on the route between London and the United States, show that carriers are increasingly focusing on the most profitable corridors and on aircraft that consume less fuel per seat.
Norse Atlantic Airways, according to published reports, withdrew the London Gatwick – Los Angeles route, which is cited as one of the examples of pressure on long-haul low-cost models. Such models depend especially on high load factors, efficient use of the fleet and costs that remain low enough for ticket prices to be competitive. When fuel becomes more expensive, the room for aggressive price cuts decreases, and long flights with high consumption become riskier. This does not mean that the transatlantic market will disappear; it remains one of the most important in the world. But the choice of routes could narrow, and passengers could more often be rerouted through stronger hubs instead of direct seasonal or marginally profitable lines.
Ryanair, KLM, SAS and other carriers are monitoring the crisis through their own networks
Ryanair is among the carriers that have publicly warned that, if supply problems continue, part of the summer flight schedule could come under pressure. Group CEO Michael O'Leary has on several occasions spoken about the need to adjust capacity to the actual availability of fuel, with decisions being made from airport to airport. At the same time, in April 2026 Ryanair also announced a major reduction of its presence in Berlin, citing high taxes and airport charges as the main reasons, while the rise in fuel costs fits into the broader picture of a more expensive European business environment. Such moves show that route cuts rarely have only one cause: fuel, taxes, charges, demand, aircraft availability and geopolitics often act simultaneously.
According to industry reports, other European carriers are also adjusting flight schedules or warning of possible disruptions. Reductions of individual intra-European flights, more cautious capacity planning and reassessment of routes that do not generate enough revenue in relation to the new fuel cost are mentioned. The United Kingdom, meanwhile, has eased slot rules for companies that would have to cancel flights due to fuel shortages, so that carriers would not fly only to preserve take-off and landing rights. Such a measure shows that the crisis is no longer viewed only as a business problem for companies but also as a regulatory issue that can affect the functioning of airports and passenger protection.
Passengers are facing less choice, possible surcharges and schedule changes
For passengers, the most direct consequences may be cancellations, changes in departure times, connections instead of direct flights and more expensive tickets. If a company reduces the number of flights on a certain line, the remaining seats can become more expensive faster, especially in periods of high demand. In addition, carriers can try to recover part of the cost through additional fees, more expensive flexible fares or fewer promotional prices. In the European Union and the United Kingdom, passengers in the event of cancellation still have rights to a refund or rerouting, but the question of financial compensation may depend on the circumstances of the cancellation and on whether the disruption is considered an extraordinary circumstance.
It is important to distinguish a general price increase from an actual shortage at a particular airport. Not every change in the flight schedule is the result of a physical lack of fuel, nor does every more expensive flight mean that supply has been interrupted. Still, when several factors come together — more expensive fuel, supply uncertainty, geopolitical risk and the summer peak of demand — companies become more conservative. That means they will more readily abolish weak frequencies, more quickly replace larger or older aircraft with more efficient ones and choose more carefully the routes on which they can cover costs. For passengers, this brings the need to check flight status, ticket conditions and alternative travel options more often, especially when travelling with several connected flights.
The crisis opens the broader question of the resilience of the aviation network
The current disruption shows how sensitive the global aviation network is to energy sources. Although the industry spent years recovering from pandemic cuts and again expanding capacity, reliance on stable and affordably priced fuel supply remained the foundation of the business model. When that foundation is shaken, the consequences are seen not only in company balance sheets, but also in the connectivity of cities, the availability of business and tourist travel, cargo logistics and regional economies that depend on air links. Fewer international routes can mean weaker competition, longer journeys, more connections and more expensive access to distant markets.
In the long term, the crisis could accelerate the discussion on more efficient aircraft, sustainable aviation fuels and different route planning. But in the short term, carriers are dealing with a much simpler question: where they can safely obtain fuel, at what price and whether the flight can be sold well enough to justify the cost. That is why flight schedules are expected to continue changing if supply pressures persist. The least protected will remain the lines that were already on the edge of profitability, while the largest hubs and strongest corridors will probably retain an advantage in capacity allocation. In such an environment, air traffic will not stop, but it will become more selective, more expensive and less predictable than in a period of stable fuel prices.
Sources:- Associated Press – report on the announced cutting of around 20,000 Lufthansa Group flights due to rising prices and the risk of aviation fuel supply (link)- IATA – Jet Fuel Price Monitor, weekly overview of aviation fuel prices and the effect on the global aviation industry (link)- Airlines for America – daily index of jet fuel prices on the American market, including the figure from April 24, 2026 (link)- The Guardian – reports on warnings from European airports, British regulatory measures and pressure on airlines due to possible fuel shortages (link)- Euronews – overview of possible consequences of the fuel crisis for passengers and airlines in Europe and Asia (link)- Vanguard Nigeria – report on the warning by Nigerian aviation operators due to the strong increase in the price of Jet A1 fuel (link)- Arise News – report on the call by the Nigerian federal government for airlines not to suspend flights and not to sharply increase ticket prices due to fuel (link)- eTurboNews – initial report on cutting international routes, including examples Abuja – London, transatlantic routes and the broader context of fuel supply disruptions (link)
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