Aviation industry under pressure: some are expanding the network, others are cutting routes
Global aviation in the spring of 2026 is entering a period in which it is no longer enough to simply follow passenger demand. Business decisions by carriers are being strongly influenced by fuel prices, geopolitical risks, tax and regulatory costs, aircraft availability, the state of supply chains, and the increasingly pronounced need to manage fleets more efficiently than before. That is precisely why three major examples from Europe and Asia show how much company strategies can differ today. Air France and KLM continue to open or strengthen long-haul routes toward markets where they see strong demand and a higher level of revenue per passenger. Lufthansa, on the other hand, is reducing part of its short- and medium-haul European operations in order to protect profitability amid rising costs. Thai Airways, meanwhile, after a period of financial restructuring, is focusing on network optimization, better fleet utilization, and stricter cost management.
Such a divergence is not accidental. Although the International Air Transport Association estimates that the number of passengers worldwide will reach 5.2 billion in 2026, with an expected record seat load factor of 83.8 percent, the industry’s overall profit margin still remains relatively thin. In practice, this means that even the smallest disruption, from a jump in kerosene prices to airspace closures, can significantly change the calculation of which routes pay off and which become too great a burden. Airlines therefore are no longer fighting only for a higher number of passengers, but for the resilience of their business model in conditions where risks are simultaneously operational, financial, and political.
Air France expands long-haul routes, but also changes the internal logic of the network
Air France announced for summer 2026 a two percent increase in capacity on long-haul routes compared with summer 2025, with the largest part of that increase relating to North and South America. A new direct route between Paris Charles de Gaulle and Las Vegas started on April 15, 2026, and the carrier is also increasing the number of flights to New York, including an additional daily frequency to Newark. These are moves that do not look spectacular only at the level of a single airline, but also as a signal of broader market thinking: in times of uncertainty, carriers seek to maintain or expand their presence where demand is more resilient and revenue per seat more stable.
It is interesting that Air France at the same time does not view the network only through the prism of expansion, but also through the redistribution of operations. For summer 2026, the company confirmed the continuation of restructuring domestic flights from Paris, so operations are being further concentrated at the Charles de Gaulle hub, while links with large French cities and overseas territories are being more closely aligned with international transfer traffic. This is an important nuance: the expansion of long-haul routes is not separate from internal reorganization. On the contrary, precisely such reorganizations often make it possible for long flights to be better filled, because passengers from domestic and regional traffic are directed more efficiently toward intercontinental departures.
A special layer of the story is also the fact that Air France openly links its plans to the crisis in the Middle East. In the summer 2026 flight schedule, the company states the continuation of the suspension of certain routes to Tel Aviv, Beirut, Dubai, and Riyadh, while at the same time increasing capacity to Asia, including Bangkok, Singapore, Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Tokyo, and Osaka. In other words, part of the capacity that, for security and market reasons, is not being used in some markets is being redirected where demand is strong and where the company can maintain commercial momentum. This is perhaps the clearest example of how geopolitical instability no longer means only the loss of an individual route, but also a rapid reshuffling of the entire network.
KLM builds growth through a combination of new markets and a higher number of frequencies
KLM, the sister company within the Air France-KLM group, is moving in a similar direction, but with somewhat different emphases. For summer 2026, the Dutch carrier plans a network of 164 destinations, of which 68 are intercontinental, with approximately five percent more seats than the previous year. In the European segment, it is opening new destinations such as Jersey, Santiago de Compostela, and Oviedo, but a more important indicator of strategy can be seen on long-haul routes. KLM is increasing the number of flights to Cape Town, Portland, San Diego, Miami, Hyderabad, and San José, and had already earlier announced for the winter 2025/2026 season a strong increase in capacity to India and the Caribbean as well as the return of Barbados to the network, in combination with Georgetown in Guyana.
KLM’s approach shows that expansion does not necessarily have to be tied only to opening entirely new destinations. Sometimes it is even more important for a carrier to increase frequency on routes that have already proven commercially healthy. Additional flights mean greater flexibility for passengers, better connectivity for transfer flows via Amsterdam, and the possibility of finer capacity allocation during the season. Translated into the language of business, the carrier is thereby not buying only a greater market share, but also greater revenue resilience, because more frequencies in proven markets often carry less risk than aggressive expansion into entirely new and untested destinations.
In that logic, the fleet is also important. KLM has announced that it is gradually introducing additional Boeing 787-10 and Airbus A321neo aircraft into the network, while emphasizing more sustainable, quieter, and more efficient operations. This is not merely a customary corporate formulation. In an industry where fuel still represents one of the largest individual costs, more modern aircraft are not only a question of image or comfort, but directly affect decisions about where capacity will be deployed at all. A carrier with a more economical fleet will more easily defend routes facing strong competition and will more easily maintain frequencies even when costs rise.
Lufthansa cuts short-haul routes to protect profitability
While Air France and KLM are still seeking room for growth on long-haul routes, Lufthansa sent a different message in April 2026. The group announced an accelerated implementation of restructuring measures due to a sharp increase in kerosene costs and additional pressure created by geopolitical instability and labor disputes. As part of that package, a reduction in capacity on short- and medium-haul routes was announced, along with the earlier withdrawal of less efficient aircraft and a further narrowing of operations of the core Lufthansa brand in the winter 2026/2027 flight schedule. The official announcement speaks of fuel savings through the earlier retirement of inefficient aircraft and a reduction in the unhedged portion of fuel needs, and the company stated that precisely that more expensive part of exposure can be reduced by around ten percent.
A very concrete signal arrived a few days later, when Lufthansa Group announced the optimization of the summer offering across all six of its hubs. In that context, it was stated that because of the high cost burden for flights from and to Germany, Lufthansa will remove more than 50 frequencies on feeder routes from the summer 2026 flight schedule, for example between Munich and Cologne, Düsseldorf and Berlin, and between Frankfurt and Leipzig or Nuremberg, while some other connections have been placed under additional review. In addition, part of the routes, such as Frankfurt–Toulouse or Munich–Tallinn, are being discontinued for economic reasons.
Agency reports published on April 22 and 23 further shed light on the scale of the cuts. According to data reported by the Associated Press, Lufthansa Group is cutting a total of 20,000 short-haul flights by October 2026, predominantly on less profitable European connections to and from Frankfurt and Munich, with an estimate that it could thereby save about 40,000 tons of jet fuel. The same reports also state that the price of jet fuel in part of the market more than doubled from the end of February to the beginning of April due to the war connected with Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. For passengers, this means fewer choices on certain regional routes, but also a greater chance that the company will preserve more profitable intercontinental operations that make a larger contribution to total revenue.
This opens a key question: why cut short flights and not long ones? The answer lies in the economics of network carriers. Short European connections often have lower margins, strong competition from low-cost carriers, high airport and regulatory costs, and less ability to pass fuel price increases onto the ticket without losing demand. Long flights are more expensive to operate, but when they are well filled and when they attract passengers paying higher fares or those flying in transfer, they often offer more stable revenue. Lufthansa can therefore at the same time expand or maintain certain attractive intercontinental routes, while cutting part of the European “feeder” network which under current costs no longer delivers the desired effect.
Thai Airways chooses discipline, fleet renewal, and network optimization
On the other side of the world, Thai Airways is giving a third, significantly different answer to the same global uncertainty. In its official reports for 2025 and presentations for investors, the company emphasized strengthening fleet capability, network optimization, and increasing aircraft utilization. During 2025, it took delivery of one Airbus A330-300, one Boeing 787-9, and one Airbus A321neo, with particular emphasis that the A321neo is part of the fleet renewal plan for short- and medium-haul routes and that it brings better fuel consumption, lower emissions, and less noise. At the same time, the company is planning further deliveries of A321neo aircraft and the Boeing 787 family, along with the gradual retirement of older aircraft.
But equally important is the way Thai Airways describes the results. In the report for business year 2025, it is stated that available capacity, measured through ASK, increased by about eight percent, with higher average daily aircraft utilization. As reasons, it cites a higher number of operational aircraft, the return of the European route to Brussels, and increased frequencies on popular routes such as Shanghai and Denpasar. At the same time, cabin load factor rose to 79.2 percent, and the company directly links that result with network optimization and strategic partnership arrangements through codeshare cooperation. This is a different business philosophy from the one currently demonstrated by parts of the European market: less public emphasis on expansion for the sake of expansion itself, and more focus on how to extract greater efficiency from the existing and gradually renewed network.
Thai Airways, however, is no longer acting from the same position as a few years ago. In the official materials, it was highlighted that in 2025 the business rehabilitation procedure was completed, that the court issued an order for the conclusion of the process, and that trading in shares resumed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. That does not mean the company has emerged from all challenges, but it does mean that it can now build more aggressively a model in which fleet renewal, cost control, and careful capacity allocation are more important than symbolic proof of network size. In other words, Thai Airways is currently not trying to beat the competition with noise, but with discipline.
Three models, one problem: how to survive the era of expensive and unstable operations
At first glance, it seems that Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, and Thai Airways are answering different questions. Some are opening long-haul routes and strengthening supply, others are cutting short sectors, while a third is optimizing the network and fleet. In reality, all of them are answering the same question: how to allocate limited resources in a period when the market is simultaneously lively and unstable. For 2026, IATA forecasts a global net industry profit of 41 billion dollars and a net margin of 3.9 percent, while warning at the same time that labor, maintenance, infrastructure, and regulatory compliance costs are rising, including costs connected with SAF and CORSIA. This means that not even a market with record demand guarantees wide room for mistakes.
European carriers are operating under additional pressure. IATA estimates that Europe could have the best absolute financial result among the regions in 2026, but at the same time warns of a growing regulatory cost burden, operational bottlenecks, and persistent problems with air traffic control. When the disruption caused by the crisis in the Middle East and spikes in fuel prices is added to that, it becomes clearer why company strategies differ so much. The one who believes that it can defend price and load factor on long-haul routes will expand. The one who estimates that its European network is leaking too much will cut. The one emerging from financial restructuring will invest in productivity and fleet renewal before in marketing-attractive announcements of growth.
For passengers, this means that 2026 will be a year in which supply will not necessarily fall or grow evenly. In some markets there will be more seats, more frequencies, and more new routes than last year, especially toward distant destinations that attract tourism and business travel. In others there will be fewer regional connections, fewer feeder flights, and more schedule adjustments. For the carriers themselves, however, this is above all a year in which it will be decided who knows how to manage a network as a precise financial and operational instrument, and not only as a list of destinations on the map of the world.
Sources:- Air France – official announcement on the summer 2026 flight schedule, growth in capacity on long-haul routes, the new route to Las Vegas, and the restructuring of domestic operations from Paris (link)- KLM – official announcement on the summer 2026 flight schedule and the expansion of the network to 164 destinations, including a higher number of intercontinental frequencies (link)- KLM – official announcement on the winter 2025/2026 flight schedule, growth in capacity to India and the Caribbean, and the return of Barbados to the network (link)- Lufthansa Group – official announcement on the accelerated implementation of the strategy, capacity reductions, and measures due to rising kerosene costs and geopolitical instability (link)- Lufthansa Group – official announcement on the summer 2026 network, cuts to certain feeder routes from Frankfurt and Munich, and changes in the European network (link)- Associated Press – report on the cutting of 20,000 short-haul flights by Lufthansa Group by October 2026 and the effect of rising jet fuel prices on the European market (link)- Thai Airways – official management report for 2025 on fleet renewal, efficiency, network optimization, and the completion of business rehabilitation (link)- Thai Airways – 2025 results presentation on ASK growth, load factors, increased frequencies, and the fleet plan for 2026 and beyond (link)- IATA – global industry financial outlook for 2026, including the expected number of passengers, load factor, revenues, and cost pressures (link)
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