Record 2025 for the world’s airports does not guarantee a calm 2026: passenger growth collides with geopolitical risks
Global aviation in 2025 reached a figure that until recently seemed like a symbol of complete normalization after pandemic disruptions. Airports Council International, the umbrella association of the world’s airports, estimated that global passenger traffic reached about 9.8 billion passengers, meaning the sector not only recovered losses from the crisis years but also surpassed the pre-pandemic level. In that picture of recovery, the Middle East stood out in particular, a region that over recent decades has built an air connectivity model based on large transfer hubs, strong national carriers, and a geographic position between Europe, Asia, and Africa. That is precisely why the latest tensions in the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle Eastern area are no longer merely a regional security issue. They have become a matter of global connectivity, capacity availability, operating costs, and the reliability of the entire air transport chain.
ACI World already published a forecast at the end of January 2026 according to which global passenger traffic should reach 10.2 billion passengers this year. Such an estimate rests on the assumption that demand will continue to expand, especially in the markets of Asia, the Middle East, and long-haul international traffic. But the aviation industry operates in a system in which even a localized security disruption can trigger global consequences. When restrictions, regulator warnings, route changes, and reduced flight schedules simultaneously begin spilling over several key hubs, the question is no longer whether traffic will formally grow, but at what cost, with what reliability, and with how much resilience to a new shock.
Why Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi matter far beyond the region
The reason why any more serious instability around Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi is followed with special attention lies in the very architecture of modern air transport. These three cities are not important only for travel to the Gulf. They are intercontinental crossroads through which an enormous number of passengers are redirected between Europe and Asia, Europe and Australia, Africa and the Far East, as well as numerous secondary markets that do not have enough direct connections. When such hubs operate smoothly, the passenger often does not even notice how much the system depends on them. When disruption occurs, the consequences appear in waves: from delays and cancellations, through longer routes and more expensive fuel, to a lack of available seats on alternative corridors.
The figures from 2025 further confirm this. Dubai International announced that last year it had 95.2 million passengers, the highest in the history of that airport and at the same time the highest annual international passenger traffic ever recorded by any airport. Hamad International in Doha reported that it handled 54.3 million passengers in 2025, while Abu Dhabi Airports announced that more than 33 million passengers passed through its five airports, with Zayed International reaching 32.5 million and establishing itself as one of the fastest-growing major airports in the region. These are not just impressive results on paper. These are indicators of the concentration of traffic at a few points whose disruption instantly becomes an international problem.
It is also important to emphasize that the growth of these hubs was not based only on tourist traffic. Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi simultaneously developed passenger, cargo, and transit operations, and their companies built networks that often connect cities without a direct alternative link. Because of this, every security risk, extension of flight time, or airspace restriction has a broader effect than a mere reduction of local traffic. What is at issue are connections that feed entire networks, crew schedules, fleet utilization, slots in distant markets, and travel plans for millions of passengers who merely pass through the region.
A record year did not remove the system’s old weaknesses
The figure of 9.8 billion passengers in 2025 can easily create the impression that global aviation has entered a period of stable and linear growth. However, ACI’s own long-term forecast already warns that growth is not the same as resilience. More passengers mean greater pressure on infrastructure, security procedures, aircraft availability, supply chains, and airspace management. In stable circumstances, these are challenges addressed through investment and better coordination. In crisis circumstances, they turn into levers that accelerate disruption.
At the same time, the sector has for some time already been living with a series of structural constraints. Aircraft manufacturers are behind on deliveries, some companies still have engine and maintenance problems, and many airports operate at the edge of capacity during peak periods. When this is combined with geopolitical risk in a region through which a large share of long-haul traffic passes, the room for improvisation becomes very narrow. The aviation industry can withstand a short-term disruption. It has a much harder time with prolonged uncertainty in which carriers have to live for weeks or months with route changes, additional costs, and constant flight schedule adjustments.
That is precisely why the question of 2026 cannot be reduced to the simple dilemma of whether there will be more or fewer passengers than last year. It is possible that the total annual figure will remain high while the quality of operations simultaneously weakens. In other words, the industry can grow even under conditions of greater instability, but such growth becomes more expensive, more fragile, and less predictable. For business travelers, tourists, airports, and carriers, the difference between nominal growth and operational reliability is often more important than the headline number itself.
What official warnings and operational notices currently say
The most important signal that the concern is not theoretical comes from regulators and the carriers themselves. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency, EASA, repeatedly extended the Conflict Zone Information Bulletin for the airspace of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf during March and April 2026. Such warnings do not in themselves mean a complete suspension of traffic, but they clearly show that the risk is assessed as sufficiently serious to require heightened caution, detailed route assessment, and continuous operational adjustment. In practice, this means more diversions, longer flights, corridor changes, and greater operational pressure on companies trying to preserve their schedules.
Air carriers also openly confirm that normalization is still not complete. Qatar Airways announced at the beginning of April a gradual restoration of its schedule to more than 120 destinations by mid-May, noting that all flights from and to Doha still depend on specially coordinated corridors and remain subject to change due to operational, regulatory, and security circumstances. Etihad was still speaking in March about the limited resumption of its commercial schedule, while Emirates on its official pages continues to warn passengers to regularly check flight status and booking changes. The very need for such warnings shows that traffic continues, but not under the conditions of full routine predictability to which passengers have become accustomed in periods of stability.
This is crucial for understanding the risk in 2026. The problem is not only the possibility of a complete closure of a particular airspace, but also prolonged operation in a regime of elevated uncertainty. Such a regime exhausts operational reserves. If flights take longer, fuel consumption rises. If corridors narrow, planning flexibility is reduced. If schedules are constantly changing, the cost for companies rises, as does the indirect cost for passengers, from missed connections to more expensive tickets and poorer seat availability.
Fuel, insurance, and flight time: the hidden costs of a geopolitical crisis
When discussing the impact of Middle Eastern tensions on aviation, canceled or rerouted flights are the most visible. But for the industry, the costs that remain less visible to the end passenger are often even more important. Aircraft that must avoid certain zones consume more fuel and stay in the air longer, which reduces daily fleet utilization. Greater geopolitical tension as a rule also raises insurance costs, and when the situation around key energy routes simultaneously tightens, the risk of more expensive jet fuel also increases. In such circumstances, even nominally full demand can become less profitable.
An additional problem is that Middle Eastern hubs have built their competitive advantage over decades precisely on efficiency. The model of major network carriers relies on precisely coordinated waves of arrivals and departures, short connection times, and high punctuality. If that mechanism is disrupted, the loss is not just on one flight but across a whole series of interconnected rotations. One delay in Doha or Dubai can carry over to a flight to Europe, then onward to the return rotation to Asia, and then to aircraft availability for the next day. The denser the network, the more sensitive it is to repeated shocks.
This also opens a broader economic question. The Middle East is not only a transit area, but also an important link for cargo, pharmaceutical shipments, e-commerce, high-value goods, and time-sensitive deliveries. If passenger and freight traffic are rerouted, delays and additional costs do not remain within the boundaries of airlines. They spill over into tourism, trade, the conference industry, exporters, and consumers. That is why the risk assessment for 2026 is in fact an assessment of the resilience of a much broader economic system.
Can the industry still maintain growth
Despite everything, it would be too simplistic to conclude that global aviation has already entered a new crisis comparable to the pandemic. Demand for travel remains strong, and ACI’s projections show that the structural growth trend has not disappeared. Passengers and companies have on several occasions shown that air traffic can adapt relatively quickly to change, especially when there are enough alternative markets and when major carriers can shift capacity. The fact that Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad have not suspended operations but are adjusting them suggests that the system is still trying to find a way to preserve the network, even if in a reduced or more flexible form.
However, maintaining growth is not the same as preserving the same business model without consequences. If security uncertainty persists, the more likely scenario is slower growth, higher ticket prices on affected routes, selective frequency cuts, and the strengthening of alternative transfer points outside the most exposed zones. Some traffic may shift toward Istanbul, European hubs, or Asian hubs, but such redistribution does not happen without friction. Slots, terminal capacity, available aircraft, and tickets already sold in advance limit the speed at which the system can be redirected.
In other words, 2026 may still end with growth in the total number of passengers, but that would not automatically mean that the current risks proved unimportant. It is much more realistic to expect that the final result, if it remains positive, will be achieved with higher costs and less operational comfort than forecasts at the beginning of the year suggested. For an industry that only recently reached new records, that is an important distinction: the number of passengers can remain high while the quality and economics of that growth simultaneously weaken.
What will determine the outcome of 2026
The fate of this year for global aviation will depend above all on the duration and intensity of security instability. If the situation stabilizes and regulatory warnings begin to be withdrawn, Middle Eastern hubs and their carriers have enough experience, infrastructure, and market strength to accelerate again. If, however, the crisis is prolonged or returns cyclically in waves, the industry will face the cumulative effect of higher costs, reduced reliability, and changed passenger behavior. In such a scenario, it would no longer be decisive only how many flights were canceled, but how long the system must live with uncertainty as the new normal state.
For now, official data and notices point to an ambiguous picture. On the one hand, 2025 truly was a record year and global demand did not disappear. On the other, regulatory warnings, limited flight schedules, and the gradual rather than complete restoration of operations clearly show that 2026 did not begin according to the ideal scenario that many expected at the beginning of the year. In an industry that depends on trust, punctuality, and uninterrupted connectivity, precisely this combination of record demand and elevated risk is the greatest paradox of the moment. The records of 2025 showed how strong global aviation has become again, but the events of 2026 remind us that it remains deeply vulnerable where global networks collide with geopolitics.
Sources:- Airports Council International (ACI World) – forecast that global passenger traffic reached 9.8 billion in 2025 and could grow to 10.2 billion in 2026 (link)
- ACI World – biannual global air travel demand update with an estimate of traffic levels and a comparison with 2019 (link)
- ACI World – executive summary of the 2025–2054 forecast stating that 2025 ended at about 9.8 billion passengers, with confirmation expected in July 2026 (link)
- Dubai Airports – official data on 95.2 million passengers at Dubai International during 2025 (link)
- Hamad International Airport – official overview of operational results for 2025, including 54.3 million passengers (link)
- Abu Dhabi Airports – official data on more than 33 million passengers in 2025 and 32.5 million passengers through Zayed International (link)
- EASA – Conflict Zone Information Bulletin for the airspace of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, with extensions during March and April 2026 (link)
- Qatar Airways – official notices on the gradual restoration of the flight schedule and operations through specially coordinated corridors (link)
- Etihad Airways – official announcement on the limited resumption of the commercial flight schedule after disruptions in the region (link)
- Emirates – official notices on current flight changes and the need to check travel status (link)
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