The Ukrainian peace channel weakens as the US focus shifts to Iran
US attempts to maintain the momentum of ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine visibly slowed in March, and a growing number of signals indicate that the war in the Middle East is taking over Washington’s political, military and diplomatic attention. This, at least temporarily, also changes the broader geopolitical calculation: while the United States is dealing more and more intensively with Iran and the security of the Persian Gulf, the negotiating channel around Ukraine is being left without part of the external pressure that in recent months sustained hope that it might be possible to reach at least a limited truce or new technical agreements.
According to available information from several international sources, a new round of talks in the US – Ukraine – Russia format, which was expected at the beginning of March, did not take place on the scheduled date. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv is ready for new talks practically at any moment, but also that American attention is currently directed toward Iran and that because of this the necessary political signals for a new trilateral meeting have been absent. For European governments, this is not only a diplomatic problem, but also a first-order security issue, because any longer keeping of the process in the zone of uncertainty increases the possibility that the war will once again enter a phase of intensified attrition, without a clear negotiating horizon.
Negotiations without rhythm and without a guarantee that they will resume quickly
Over the past year it has been obvious several times that negotiations on Ukraine move forward only when they are backed by strong and continuous political energy from Washington, accompanied by simultaneously coordinated European pressure through sanctions, military aid and diplomatic messages to Moscow. As soon as that rhythm is interrupted, space opens up for delay, tactical shifting of responsibility and a new spiral of attacks on the ground. This is precisely what is now worrying a number of European diplomats and security officials, because a frozen process, without a formal break and without real progress, in practice often suits best the side that assesses that it can still achieve gains militarily.
The postponed talks do not mean that the peace channel has been formally shut down, but they show how fragile it is. Kyiv continues to repeat publicly that it is not closing the door to negotiations, while messages continue to come from Moscow that leave the impression that the Kremlin wants to negotiate only under conditions that would confirm Russian territorial and political goals. Such a position had previously also limited room for manoeuvre, but now, when the American security apparatus is occupied with the crisis in the Middle East, it further weakens the likelihood of a quick diplomatic breakthrough.
It is important to note here that this is not only about protocol or the calendar of meetings. In processes like these, the very fact that talks are regular and held in a predictable rhythm acts as a form of pressure, because it imposes on each side the need to show readiness for compromise or at least responsibility before allies. When that rhythm disappears, the possibility grows that negotiations will turn into a loose framework without a clear deadline, without binding interim steps and without a political cost for obstruction.
How the crisis with Iran is changing American priorities
The new developments in the Middle East are not for Washington just another regional issue. After joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February and later attacks on energy infrastructure and maritime routes in the region, the American administration directed a large part of its political and military energy toward the security of allies, the protection of maritime routes and the deterrence of further escalation. In such circumstances, it is logical that part of the strategic attention, diplomatic capacity and military logistics has spilled over from the European direction toward the Middle East.
This does not mean that Ukraine has ceased to be an important issue for the US, but it does mean that it is no longer the only foreign policy crisis requiring urgent decisions at the highest level. In practice, such a shift often has very concrete consequences: less intensive shuttle diplomacy, slower coordination of positions among allies, postponement of meetings and weaker media visibility of the Ukrainian issue at the very top of American politics. For Kyiv, this is a problem because political visibility often determines the pace of aid deliveries as well as the willingness of partners to further tighten sanctions against Russia.
The Ukrainian leadership has therefore in recent days been trying to send two messages at the same time. The first is that Ukraine remains available for talks and does not want to take responsibility for the standstill onto itself. The second is that wars and crises cannot be viewed separately: Kyiv openly warns that Iran and Russia belong to the same security problem for Europe and the wider West, primarily because of cooperation in the field of unmanned systems, missile technology and destabilisation of the neighbourhood. In this way Zelensky is trying to prevent Ukraine from being pushed aside in the American and European focus as an “old crisis” while a new crisis demands a more urgent response.
Rising oil prices as an unexpected tailwind for Moscow
One of the most important, but in day-to-day politics often underestimated, effects of the Middle Eastern escalation can be seen on the energy market. In its March report, the International Energy Agency warned that oil prices had fluctuated sharply after the strikes on Iran and disruptions to supply routes, with Brent at one point coming close to 120 dollars per barrel. Additional attacks on energy infrastructure and interruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to keep prices at elevated levels, and European institutions are already warning that such a situation carries a direct security and fiscal risk.
For Russia, this is bad news only at first glance. Although Moscow remains under sanctions and export restrictions, higher global energy prices as a rule make it easier for it to collect revenue from oil and petroleum products, that is, they partially cushion the pressure of sanctions. In other words, the geopolitical shock hitting the Middle East can help Russia finance its war machinery more easily, even without any change on the battlefield in Ukraine. That is precisely why European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has in recent days warned that easing up on Russian fossil fuels would be a strategic mistake and that higher energy costs could in the end additionally strengthen the Russian war economy.
This calculation particularly worries European capitals because it combines two unfavourable processes: the weakening of political focus on Ukraine and, at the same time, the strengthening of one of the main sources of Russian revenue. If negotiations are idle and energy revenues are rising, the Kremlin gets more time and more money. In such a balance of power, every diplomatic pause becomes more costly, not only for Ukraine but also for European allies who must maintain military, financial and humanitarian support.
European fear of a long standstill without a political outcome
In European diplomatic circles, people are speaking increasingly openly about the danger that the peace process will not collapse spectacularly, but will simply slow down to the point of political invisibility. For Brussels, Berlin, Paris, Warsaw and the Baltic capitals, such a scenario represents perhaps the worst middle option: there is no peace, there is no formal collapse of negotiations that would mobilise new political resolve, but instead there comes a prolonged in-between space in which the war continues, people die, infrastructure is destroyed, and the international agenda moves on.
The European Council and the Council of the EU in their latest documents again emphasised that Russia must agree to a full, unconditional and immediate ceasefire and show genuine political will for meaningful negotiations. At the same time, in mid-March the Union extended individual sanctions against persons and entities connected with undermining Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and the European Commission also announced a new package of restrictive measures aimed at energy, financial services and trade. In this way Brussels is trying to send the message that diplomatic standstill does not automatically mean weakening pressure.
But the European problem is broader than formal decisions. Even when Brussels maintains a hard line, without strong American engagement it is harder to sustain the global coalition of pressure, especially toward states that balance between the West, Moscow and their own economic interests. In addition, some European officials fear that the attention of the public and political elites, faced with rising energy prices and new security tensions in the Mediterranean and the Gulf, will begin to shift from Ukraine toward more immediate domestic problems. This may not immediately change official policy, but over time it can weaken the political endurance needed for a long confrontation with Russia.
What the standstill means on the ground in Ukraine
On the battlefield itself, a diplomatic vacuum almost never remains without consequences. In recent days, Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure have continued, and the Ukrainian authorities warn that Moscow is using the moment of geopolitical disarray to intensify pressure and test the limits of Western endurance. Under such conditions, every postponement of political talks increases uncertainty among civilians, regional administrations and military logistics that has already been operating under pressure for years.
Kyiv therefore insists that the issue of Ukraine must not be treated as a secondary topic while the Middle Eastern crisis is ongoing. In recent days Zelensky has repeatedly highlighted Ukrainian experience in defending against drones, suggesting that the war in Ukraine is precisely what shows how increasingly interconnected European and Middle Eastern security are. In this way he is trying to change the framework of the debate: instead of competition between crises, he offers the thesis that ignoring Ukraine additionally increases the overall security cost for allies.
For Ukrainian society, the particular danger lies in the fact that a prolonged standstill creates the psychological effect of fatigue without a clear goal. In a country that has already been living under massive wartime pressure for a fourth year, every weakening of international attention is read not only through aid and weapons but also through the question of political perspective. If citizens and institutions gain the impression that the diplomatic process is going in circles, space grows for frustration, but also for Russian propaganda that is trying to portray that the West is gradually losing the will for long-term support.
American logistics, European responsibility and Russian calculation
One of the reasons why European diplomacies are nervously following the American redirection toward Iran also lies in the military-industrial dimension. Several sources warn that the expansion of American engagement in the Middle East raises the question of the availability of certain types of ammunition, air defence and logistics capacities. At a moment when Ukraine still depends on Western deliveries for the defence of cities, the energy grid and key battlefield points, any competition for the same resources represents a strategic risk.
The Russian calculation here is fairly clear. The Kremlin does not necessarily have to believe that Ukraine will be completely abandoned; it is enough for it to assess that aid will be slower, political focus more fragmented, and the Western response less coherent. In such circumstances, Moscow can continue the tactic of attrition, counting on time working in its favour. This explains why European officials are increasingly pointing out that peace is not possible without continuous pressure and that a ceasefire cannot be the result of goodwill alone, but of a balance of power that clearly shows Russia that further delay carries a higher cost than negotiations.
From the European side, this also opens up the uncomfortable question of its own capacities. If Washington temporarily or partially shifts the bulk of its attention to Iran, can Europe itself make up part of the political and military vacuum quickly enough? The answer for now is not unequivocal. The European Union remains a key financial and regulatory support for Ukraine, and some member states are increasing bilateral aid, but the question of strategic tempo remains to a large extent tied to the US. That is precisely why European capitals are trying to maintain a dual line: publicly demonstrate stable support for Kyiv, and at the same time convince Washington that the Ukrainian war must not fall lower on the list of priorities.
Why the political outcome remains uncertain
At this moment there are not enough indicators that the peace process could quickly return to full operation, but there is also no confirmation that it has permanently failed. The problem is that between those two states there is a grey zone of prolonged standstill, and it is precisely this that suits a war of attrition best. If in the coming weeks there is no new diplomatic initiative with clear dates, a mediating format and concrete goals, the likelihood grows that negotiations will remain only nominally open, while the real dynamics will once again be determined by the battlefield, the energy market and the mood of allies.
For readers in Europe, and especially in countries that feel the consequences of the war through energy prices, inflation, security policy and migration pressure, this means that the Ukrainian issue is nowhere near returning to a calmer phase. On the contrary, it is entering a more complex stage in which the outcome no longer depends only on the relationship between Kyiv and Moscow, but also on how long Washington will remain focused on Iran, how much Europe will manage to maintain political and economic firmness, and whether rising oil prices will secure Russia additional room to continue the war. That is why today’s standstill is much more than a short diplomatic postponement: it is a test of the endurance of the Western strategy toward two simultaneous security fires, neither of which can be resolved on its own.
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