The U.S. at a tourism crossroads: WTTC warns that the world’s largest travel market is losing momentum despite global growth
The American travel and tourism market remains the largest in the world, but an increasing number of indicators suggest that its leading position is no longer beyond question. At a time when the global tourism sector is recording record levels of spending and strong growth in its economic contribution, the United States is facing an uncomfortable trend: international visitors are spending less, the recovery in arrivals is taking longer than expected, and competing destinations are increasingly aggressively taking over part of the market. It was precisely this gap that the World Travel & Tourism Council, WTTC, warned about, saying that the U.S. is at a turning point at a moment when the rest of the world is using the return of global mobility to strengthen the tourism sector.
The message is all the more significant because it comes at a time when tourism is once again being confirmed as one of the key economic activities at the global level. WTTC estimates that in 2025 the global travel and tourism sector reached or exceeded previous records in economic contribution, employment, and international traveler spending. At the same time, data for the American market show a different picture: the country remains a huge domestic tourism economy, but it is precisely the international segment, the one that is financially most valuable for many destinations, that is creating increasingly pronounced weaknesses.
The largest market, but with a warning that is growing louder
WTTC continues to rank the United States first among the world’s tourism markets by the overall size of the sector, but at the same time clearly warns that American leadership is no longer without risk. In earlier and more recent statements, the body repeats that international spending in the U.S. is recovering more slowly than in a number of competing countries, and that some major markets in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are taking advantage of renewed demand more quickly. The problem for the U.S. is not only in the number of arrivals, but also in the fact that international visitors on average leave a significantly greater economic footprint than domestic travelers, stay longer, and more strongly boost the revenues of cities, states, airports, the hotel sector, and retail.
The American tourism economy is therefore not in crisis in the classic sense. Domestic demand remains strong, business and leisure travel have not disappeared, and huge internal traffic continues to sustain the entire system. But in international competition, tourism is an activity in which a relative decline often means a long-term loss of market share. When travelers from Europe, Canada, Asia, or Latin America change their habits, when they become tied to other routes, other airlines, and other destinations, lost traffic does not return automatically. That is why the warning about a “crossroads” in the American case does not seem like rhetorical exaggeration, but rather an assessment that this is a moment when the future direction can still be changed, but no longer without an active political and market response.
The figures show why the concern is serious
The most concrete signal comes from estimates of international spending. During 2025, WTTC already warned that the U.S. could lose about 12.5 billion dollars in international tourism spending compared with previous expectations, with a drop from approximately 181 billion dollars in 2024 to about 169 billion dollars in 2025. In the meantime, the U.S. Travel Association presented a somewhat different methodology and estimate, but with the same direction of movement: according to their updated tourism forecast, international arrivals in the U.S. were expected to fall from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million in 2025, while total foreign spending was expected to slip to about 173 billion dollars. Differences in models are not unusual, but the shared message of these estimates is that 2025 is marked by decline, not stabilization.
Official forecasts from the National Travel and Tourism Office at the U.S. Department of Commerce also show that a full return to the pre-pandemic level is not immediate. According to the forecast tables published in 2025, total international arrivals in the U.S. for 2025 are estimated at about 77.1 million, which is still below the result from 2019, while for 2026 further growth to approximately 85 million is projected. Such a projection confirms that the American market has not lost its potential, but also that the recovery was neither linear nor painless. In other words, the world’s largest travel market today depends on whether it can once again accelerate precisely the segment that normalized most slowly.
What lies behind the decline in international arrivals
Several sources warn that the problem cannot be reduced to a single cause. Tourism demand from abroad toward the U.S. today depends on a combination of the geopolitical climate, travel costs, the visa system, the perception of welcome, and the broader political signal the country sends outward. Oxford Economics and Tourism Economics stated in several analyses during 2025 and 2026 that “sentiment headwinds”, that is, worsening sentiment and a weaker perception of travel to the U.S., are among the important factors behind the decline. In the same direction goes the analysis of the U.S. Travel Association, which cites system bottlenecks, longer waiting times, and a series of administrative and reputational barriers that competing countries are trying to reduce rather than increase.
The Canadian factor is particularly important. Canada is traditionally one of the most important source markets for the United States, and it is precisely from the Canadian direction that a visible weakening has been recorded. In its spring market review, U.S. Travel stated that international visits to the U.S. in March 2025 were approximately 14 percent lower than a year earlier, with the decline most noticeable in Canadian overnight stays in land travel and air arrivals, but also in Western Europe, Asia, and South America. Such a trend particularly affects states and cities that rely on short- and medium-haul cross-border travel, conference traffic, and the spending of higher-income visitors.
Some analysts additionally warn that the modern international traveler reacts not only to the price of a ticket and hotel costs, but also to the feeling of legal certainty, the predictability of entry into the country, and the political atmosphere. In the travel sector, perception sometimes works just as strongly as an objective obstacle. If, in the public of a certain country, the impression takes hold that entry is more complicated, less pleasant, or less predictable than with the competition, that can influence the travel decision even before a concrete booking. At the beginning of 2026, WTTC therefore also warned of the possible negative effect of stricter rules linked to the ESTA program and obligations regarding the reporting of social media data, arguing that the additional administrative burden could reduce the interest of some foreign visitors.
Global tourism is growing, but growth is not evenly distributed
The key discomfort for the U.S. stems from the fact that weaker results are coming at a time when global tourism is growing. For 2025, WTTC estimated that the global travel and tourism sector would reach about 11.7 trillion dollars in contribution to the world economy, or about 10.3 percent of global GDP, with record international spending of about 2.1 trillion dollars and more than 370 million jobs linked to the sector. In such circumstances, the relative stagnation or decline of a large market like the American one carries even greater weight, because it does not arise from a general weakening of global demand, but from the fact that other parts of the world are growing faster and attracting international visitors more effectively.
Examples of competition for the U.S. are not abstract. In separate releases in recent months, WTTC has highlighted strong results and record projections for countries such as Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, while the broader Asia-Pacific region has been identified in several analyses as an area of stronger growth than North America. When such trends persist, it means that global tourism flows are not simply returning to the pre-pandemic situation, but are also being partially rearranged. For the U.S., this raises the question of whether it can rely only on the strength of its brand and the size of its domestic market or whether it must work more aggressively to once again become the most desirable international destination, and not just the largest.
America still has enormous advantages
Despite the warnings, few in the industry dispute that the United States still has enormous structural advantages. It is a country with an exceptionally diverse tourism offering, from national parks and large coastal destinations to urban centers, the entertainment industry, the luxury segment, congress tourism, university towns, and major sporting events. In addition, the American market has a strong internal foundation: a large domestic population, a developed air network, and a huge consumer base mean that demand does not depend exclusively on arrivals from abroad.
Official American data also show that the economic weight of the sector is still enormous. According to the “Fast Facts” document of the International Trade Administration, total travel and tourism output in the U.S. is measured in trillions of dollars, the sector supports millions of jobs, and international tourism spending makes up an important part of services exports. In other words, this is not a market that is disappearing, but a market that, despite its size, risks capitalizing on global growth more slowly than the competition.
That is precisely why numerous actors within the American tourism industry insist that the problem should not be viewed fatalistically. For months, the U.S. Travel Association has emphasized that a “mega-decade” of major events is opening up for the country: the Ryder Cup, the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the U.S., the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games, and a series of other globally visible sporting and public events. If infrastructural and administrative barriers are reduced, precisely these events could reverse the current narrative and once again push the growth of international arrivals.
Major events as an opportunity, but not an automatic solution
Major international events in themselves do not guarantee success. They create attention, but they do not remove administrative obstacles, shorten visa waiting times, or by themselves change the perception of the country among foreign visitors. That is exactly why the American tourism industry is speaking ever more loudly about the need to modernize the entry system, strengthen airport capacities, digitize procedures, and promote the country more strongly internationally. The commission for “seamless and secure travel”, supported by the U.S. Travel Association, estimates that simply regaining the lost American share in global passenger traffic over the next decade could bring tens of millions of additional visitors and hundreds of billions of dollars in spending.
For American host cities of major events, that issue is not only a matter of national image, but of a concrete business model. Tourism revenues spill over to hotels, restaurants, small landlords, taxi and transport platforms, cultural institutions, retail, and public budgets. The loss of part of the international audience is therefore not only a problem of arrival statistics, but also a problem for local economies that count on the higher spending of foreign visitors. In that sense, the debate about American tourism leadership is actually a debate about services exports, employment, and the competitiveness of a whole range of sectors that at first glance do not appear to be a classic part of the tourism industry.
A shift in traveler sentiment can have a lasting effect
One of the most serious elements of the current warning is the fact that part of the problem relates to traveler sentiment, not only to technical indicators. Economic models can estimate a drop in arrivals or spending, but they have a harder time capturing the moment when a destination ceases to be perceived as the “first choice”. In that sense, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, changes in border rules, and the public political tone can act as soft but very powerful filters. Travel is by definition discretionary spending: a large share of visitors can choose another destination as well, often without any major functional loss.
That is why WTTC’s warning cannot be read only as a complaint about one government or one season. It is actually a message that in the global mobility market, an advantage is no longer maintained by itself. Countries that speed up procedures, invest in promotion, simplify entry regimes, and actively work on reputation more easily retain and attract international visitors. Countries that send unclear or contradictory messages risk being bypassed by travelers, not because they lack attractions, but because the competition proves simpler, more predictable, or more desirable.
What the next report could show
According to the currently available projections, the U.S. still has room for recovery already during 2026, especially if demand from key source markets stabilizes and if the major sports and promotional cycle begins to bring concrete results. But it is equally clear that the next report by WTTC and other industry bodies will be important not only because of the absolute figures, but because of the question of whether the trend is changing. Whether the decline in international spending will remain a temporary disruption or will be confirmed as a sign of a deeper shift in global tourism flows will depend on whether the American sector can combine its structural strength with a more convincing policy of openness and efficiency.
For now, the picture is complex, but sufficiently clear. The United States remains the world’s largest tourism market, with unmatched domestic capacity and globally recognizable destinations. At the same time, the latest data from WTTC, American industry associations, and analytical firms show that size alone is no longer sufficient protection against a decline in international interest. In a world in which global tourism is growing again, the real question for the U.S. is no longer whether it can remain large, but whether it can remain open enough, competitive enough, and desirable enough to retain its leading position even when the market is not expanding for everyone at the same speed.
Sources:- WTTC – release on projections for global tourism and the warning that international spending in the U.S. lags behind pre-pandemic levels (link)- WTTC – release on the estimate that the U.S. could lose 12.5 billion dollars in international tourism spending (link)- U.S. Travel Association – updated forecast according to which 2025 brings a decline in international arrivals and spending (link)- U.S. Travel Association – overview of market developments with a decline in international visits to the U.S. in March 2025 (link)- National Travel and Tourism Office / International Trade Administration – official forecast tables of international arrivals in the U.S. by year and market (link)- International Trade Administration – official overview of the size of the American tourism sector and the importance of international spending for services exports (link)- Oxford Economics / Tourism Economics – analysis of the decline in international arrivals to the U.S. and the delayed full recovery (link)- Oxford Economics / Tourism Economics – analysis of the factors that also affect the American inbound segment in 2026 (link)
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