American travel remains a strong economic engine: spending is expected to reach $1.42 trillion by 2027
The latest forecast from the U.S. Travel Association shows that total travel spending in the United States in 2026 is expected to reach a record $1.37 trillion, and rise to $1.42 trillion in 2027, expressed in inflation-adjusted 2025 dollars. This is a projection confirming that the American travel market continues to grow, but also that this growth relies above all on domestic demand, while international arrivals are recovering more slowly and unevenly. According to the published data, domestic travel accounts for 87 percent of total spending, which means that spending by U.S. residents on vacations, family visits, business trips and shorter regional trips carries the largest part of the tourism economy. The association states that domestic spending reached $1.20 trillion and has thus returned to 2019 levels in real, inflation-adjusted amounts. The forecast is especially important because it comes at a time when the travel sector is simultaneously recording consumer resilience, pressure from higher prices and caution due to geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.
Growth exists, but it is no longer explosive
In the spring edition of its 2026 forecast, the U.S. Travel Association describes the growth of travel spending as low, but positive. After a period of strong recovery from pandemic disruptions, the industry is entering a phase of more moderate expansion. Total spending is expected to rise by about one percent in real terms in 2026, and then accelerate to approximately three percent in 2027 and 2028. Such dynamics point to a market that is no longer growing primarily because of the catch-up of postponed travel, but because of stable, though more selective, demand. Household budgets remain under inflationary pressure, while transport, fuel and accommodation prices shape decisions about destinations, trip duration and total spending. In this context, consumers are more often turning to shorter trips, regional destinations and options that allow better cost control.
According to the U.S. Travel Association, domestic travel remains the backbone of the market because it is less exposed to visa regimes, changes in international sentiment and long intercontinental journeys. The domestic leisure segment is also the only major part of the market that has exceeded 2019 levels in real terms. For 2026, spending on domestic travel for vacation and leisure is forecast to reach $909 billion, with continued growth after 2027. Such data show that travel still ranks highly among consumer priorities, but also that a larger share of increased spending is linked to higher-income households. This is an important nuance: total amounts can grow while part of the population simultaneously shortens trips, chooses cheaper destinations or postpones larger expenses.
International arrivals are recovering more slowly than total spending
The weakest point of the forecast remains international inbound tourism. The U.S. Travel Association states that spending by international visitors in the U.S. fell by 2.4 percent in 2025, to $175 billion, while a 1.6 percent recovery is expected for 2026, to $178 billion. However, that level would still be 18 percent below 2019 in inflation-adjusted terms. The number of international arrivals also declined in 2025, by 5.5 percent, to 68.3 million visits, with the largest negative contribution coming from Canada. For 2026, arrivals are forecast to grow by 3.4 percent, to 70.6 million, but a return to the 79 million visits recorded in 2019 is not expected under this forecast before 2029.
Such a recovery is not only a statistical issue, but also an important economic indicator. International visitors usually stay longer, spend more per trip and strongly influence the revenues of cities, airports, the hotel sector, hospitality, cultural institutions, retail and business events. When inbound international traffic lags behind, part of the revenue cannot simply be replaced by domestic travel, especially in destinations that depend on long-haul flights, convention traffic or major international events. The U.S. Travel Association also warns of the growing U.S. travel trade deficit, because Americans' travel abroad is growing faster than arrivals of foreign visitors to the U.S. According to the association, the travel deficit reached $72 billion in 2025.
The 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Olympic Games as an opportunity
One of the key factors that could accelerate the international recovery is major sporting events. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be held in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and American host cities are expected to attract large numbers of fans, media, sponsors and related business activities. FIFA states that the 2026 tournament will include 48 national teams, making it the largest World Cup so far. In its forecast, the U.S. Travel Association emphasizes that this very event could support growth in international visits in 2026, although by itself it does not guarantee a full normalization of the market. Alongside the World Cup, the 2028 Summer Olympic Games in Los Angeles also represent an important horizon for American tourism, as they could further increase the visibility of the U.S. as a destination and encourage inbound traffic from distant markets.
Still, the effect of major events depends on a range of practical and political conditions. Among the risks are visa waiting times, perceptions of safety, border procedures, airfare prices, airport capacity and the general image of the country on the international market. If travelers from key markets assess that arrival is administratively complicated, expensive or unpredictable, part of demand may spill over to competing destinations. This is why the travel industry increasingly emphasizes that international events are not enough without an operationally efficient system for receiving visitors. In practice, this means that sporting spectacles could bring a short-term jump, but the long-term effect will depend on whether visitors return after major events and recommend the destination.
Inflation is changing traveler behavior
The broader context of the forecast shows that spending growth cannot be interpreted only as growth in the number of trips. The U.S. Travel Insights Dashboard published at the end of April 2026 states that travel spending in March increased by five percent year over year, to $113 billion, which was the strongest growth in the previous twelve months. At the same time, travel prices rose faster than the volume of travel itself. The Travel Price Index, an indicator of prices in the travel sector, increased by 5.8 percent in March, above the growth of the broader Consumer Price Index of 3.3 percent. The greatest pressure came from transport categories: gasoline prices, overall transport costs and airfares rose significantly compared with the previous year.
This means that higher spending does not automatically have to mean proportionally more travelers or longer stays. Part of revenue growth comes from higher prices, which can support nominal results for the industry in the short term, but in the long term raises the question of travel affordability for a wider circle of consumers. If transport and accommodation costs remain at elevated levels, lower- and middle-income households could reduce the frequency of travel or choose closer destinations. The U.S. Travel Association already states that some travelers are turning to shorter and more cost-effective arrangements, including regional car trips. Such a shift can benefit local and rural destinations, but at the same time represents a challenge for expensive urban and long-haul tourism products.
Business travel is growing, but more cautiously than the leisure segment
Business travel remains an important but sensitive part of the American travel economy. According to the forecast, business travel grew by 1.1 percent in 2025, to $317 billion, and modest growth to $319 billion is expected for 2026. The U.S. Travel Association estimates that business travel growth will lag behind leisure travel in the short term, before accelerating from 2027 onward with the stabilization of broader economic conditions and the recovery of corporate budgets. This segment is especially connected with conferences, trade fairs, sales meetings and events that support hotel occupancy outside the peaks of the leisure season. That is why even a small change in business traffic can have a significant effect on the revenues of airlines, convention centers, restaurants and city hotels.
The forecast suggests that companies have not given up on in-person meetings, but are planning them more carefully. After years in which videoconferencing reduced the need for some types of official travel, the business sector is again recognizing the value of direct meetings, negotiations and events. Still, travel budgets remain under control, and decisions are increasingly tied to a measurable return on investment. A particularly interesting part of the forecast concerns domestic group travel, which is expected to grow faster than total business travel, with an increase of 1.4 percent in 2026 to $118 billion. This shows that the conference and events segment can be one of the more stable sources of demand, provided that the broader economic framework does not deteriorate.
Different forecasts show how sensitive the market is
Data from the American National Travel and Tourism Office, which operates within the International Trade Administration, provide additional context for the international segment, but differ methodologically and temporally from the projections of the U.S. Travel Association. In its forecast for international visits from 2025 to 2029, the NTTO states that total international arrivals to the U.S. should grow in the coming years and exceed the pre-pandemic 2019 level in 2026. This forecast mentions growth to 77.1 million arrivals in 2025, 85 million in 2026 and 90.1 million in 2027. The U.S. Travel Association, on the other hand, in its latest spring 2026 release speaks of a slower path back to the 79 million visits from 2019, with full recovery only in 2029.
The difference does not necessarily mean that one source is wrong, but shows how much estimates depend on definitions, input assumptions, timing of preparation and market shocks. Tourism forecasts are extremely sensitive to energy prices, exchange rates, visa policies, geopolitical tensions, economic activity in source markets and perceptions of the destination. That is why, in public interpretation, it is important to distinguish nominal spending amounts, real inflation-adjusted amounts, the number of arrivals, the number of overnight stays and the structure of the market. In the case of the U.S., the most important current conclusion is that total spending is growing, but not all parts of the industry equally. The domestic segment appears stable, business travel is recovering gradually, and international inbound traffic remains the area with the greatest uncertainty.
What the projection means for the American economy
Travel in the U.S. is not an isolated tourism category, but a broad economic system that includes air and road transport, hotels, short-term rentals, restaurants, entertainment, retail, the convention industry, cultural institutions and local tax revenues. When the U.S. Travel Association talks about spending of more than $1.4 trillion by 2027, it is referring to an amount that flows through thousands of local markets and a large number of jobs. Stable domestic demand helps mitigate the weaknesses of the international segment, but it does not eliminate all risks. Cities that rely on foreign guests, long-haul flights and international conferences may feel pressure even when total national spending is growing.
The latest forecast therefore brings a double message. The American travel industry remains exceptionally resilient and financially strong, with a projection of record spending in 2026 and further growth in 2027. At the same time, the recovery is not evenly distributed: domestic travelers are carrying the market, the international return is slower than the industry would like, and inflation and geopolitical instability can change consumer behavior faster than long-term projections show. For a sector entering a period of major sporting events, from the 2026 World Cup to the 2028 Olympic Games, the most important question is no longer only whether demand will exist, but whether the travel system will be accessible, efficient and competitive enough to turn that demand into long-term economic gain.
Sources:- U.S. Travel Association – spring forecast of travel spending, domestic and international travel for 2026 and beyond (link)- U.S. Travel Association – press release on the spending projection of $1.37 trillion in 2026 and $1.42 trillion in 2027 (link)- U.S. Travel Association – Travel Insights Dashboard with data on March spending, travel prices and demand indicators (link)- International Trade Administration / National Travel and Tourism Office – official forecast of international arrivals to the U.S. for the period 2025–2029 (link)- FIFA – official information on the 2026 World Cup, host cities and tournament format (link)- Olympics.com – official information on the Los Angeles 2028 Summer Olympic Games (link)
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