American tourism is recording a “Trump slump.” Can the 2026 World Cup reverse the trend?
The United States is entering 2026 with an uncomfortable paradox: a country that will in a few months be one of the hosts of the biggest football spectacle in history is at the same time facing a weakening of international tourism. In part of the American and international public, the expression “Trump slump” has become established for this trend, a phrase that describes the decline in interest among foreign guests in traveling to the U.S. amid political tensions, harsher messages toward migrants, and increased uncertainty about entry into the country. Although domestic tourism spending remains relatively stable, data from the tourism industry and government institutions indicate that the arrival of foreign visitors is precisely one of the weakest points of the American tourism recovery. The question now arising is not only whether the 2026 World Cup can bring fuller stadiums and more hotel overnight stays, but whether it can repair the damaged perception of the country as an open and predictable travel destination.
The decline in international arrivals is no longer just an impression
According to data from the U.S. Travel Association, which cites preliminary information from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Customs and Border Protection, and external statistical sources, international visits to the United States in March 2025 fell by approximately 14 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. The decline was particularly pronounced in markets that the American tourism industry considers the most valuable. Canadian overnight stays after land entry fell by 26 percent, air arrivals from Canada by 14 percent, and arrivals from Western Europe recorded a decline of 17 percent. The U.S. Travel Association also reports continued weakness from Asia, a region that has still remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels, as well as a drop in visits from South America. These are indicators that matter because international guests, on average, spend more than domestic travelers and more strongly boost the revenues of hotels, airlines, convention tourism, restaurants, and city budgets.
Nor does the latest industry review suggest that the problem has disappeared on its own. In an updated insight for March 30, 2026, the U.S. Travel Association states that overseas arrivals in February rose only slightly, by 0.8 percent, after nine consecutive months of decline, while the organization explicitly warns that one month of mild growth does not erase the previous erosion in demand. The annual result at the beginning of 2026 was still 1.9 percent below the level of the previous year. In other words, on the eve of the tournament, the U.S. is not entering a phase of strong tourism upswing, but a period of recovery that remains fragile and uneven.
Why people talk about the “Trump slump”
The expression used in part of the media and the industry is not an official economic category, but it summarizes several parallel processes. The first is political and reputational. After Donald Trump’s return to the White House, some foreign travelers and business organizations openly speak of discomfort over U.S. tariffs, border policies, and the general impression that entry into the U.S. is more unpredictable than before. The Associated Press, citing preliminary figures from the National Travel and Tourism Office, reported that business traffic to the U.S. in April 2025 fell by 9 percent, while arrivals of business travelers from Western Europe fell by 17.7 percent. The same report also notes a decline in return travel by Canadians from the U.S., with air returns lower by 20 percent and road returns by as much as 35 percent, according to Statistics Canada data.
The second reason is administrative. Travel to the U.S. for a large number of the world’s citizens still depends on the visa regime, and the visa system has for years been cited as one of the bottlenecks of American competitiveness. On its official pages, the State Department still warns of the need to plan travel early and apply for a visa early, while interview wait-time data are updated monthly. The very fact that the federal administration must regularly warn travelers to check global wait times shows that access to the American market is not equally simple as it is in many competing destinations. In February 2026, the U.S. Travel Association warned that additional measures, such as the proposal for a $250 “visa integrity” fee and expanded social media screening for travelers from the Visa Waiver Program, could weaken recently achieved progress and reduce U.S. competitiveness.
The third reason is economic. When travelers postpone their decision, shorten their stay, or choose another destination, the consequences are seen not only in tourism statistics, but also in employment, city revenues, and investment. The World Travel & Tourism Council estimated in May 2025 that the U.S. could lose $12.5 billion in international tourism spending in that year, with a decline to less than $169 billion, after $181 billion in 2024. At the same time, that organization states that the U.S. is the only one among 184 analyzed economies for which a decline in international tourism spending in 2025 is forecast. Such an estimate does not mean that the entire sector is in free fall, but it clearly shows that the international component of American tourism has become a source of concern.
The 2026 World Cup as an unprecedented opportunity
In such an atmosphere, the 2026 World Cup has almost strategic importance for the American tourism sector. FIFA confirms that the tournament will be the biggest in history: for the first time, 48 national teams will participate, 104 matches will be played, and the hosts are three countries – the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The tournament begins on June 11, 2026, and ends on July 19, 2026, with the final in New York and New Jersey. FIFA also states that matches will be played in 16 host cities, 11 of which are in the United States: Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York New Jersey, Philadelphia, San Francisco Bay Area, and Seattle. The very spatial distribution indicates that the greatest organizational, logistical, and tourism burden, but also the largest share of the potential benefit, will be borne precisely by the American market.
Organizers and the industry are counting on the football tournament acting as a strong corrective to the current decline. FIFA and the World Trade Organization published an analysis according to which the 2026 World Cup could attract around 6.5 million spectators in the host countries and contribute up to $40.9 billion to global gross domestic product, with almost 824 thousand full-time-equivalent jobs at the global level. In the same package of analyses, FIFA also cites the broader impact of the tournament together with the Club World Cup, with an estimate of $47 billion in economic output in the U.S. and 290 thousand jobs linked to the two tournaments. Such projections should be read with caution because they come from the organizers’ ecosystem and refer to modeled effects rather than already achieved results, but they still show why the American tourism industry is so focused on 2026.
It is not enough to have a stadium, it is necessary to make entry into the country easier
The biggest risk for the American calculation is not a lack of interest in football, but the possibility that interest will be greater than the administrative capacity of the state to receive people quickly and predictably. At the end of 2025, the U.S. Travel Association welcomed the White House decision to deploy more than 400 additional consular officers and double staffing at embassies and consulates with high demand, along with the announcement of accelerated procedures for holders of tickets to FIFA events. From the perspective of the tourism sector, this is an acknowledgment that the visa system still represents an obstacle and that without extraordinary measures it will be difficult to absorb the demand that comes with the tournament.
But even with additional measures, the question remains how quickly the impression among travelers will change. The visa regime is not the only thing guests evaluate when deciding where to travel. Equally important are the perception of safety, the political climate, the risk of being detained at the border, the tone of public communication, and the feeling of being welcome. If a potential visitor believes that the trip will be expensive, bureaucratically exhausting, or politically unpleasant, some of them may decide to follow the tournament from another host country, namely Canada or Mexico, or even from their own home. That is precisely why the World Cup can be a stimulus, but not an automatic cure.
America still has strong advantages
Despite the problems, it would be wrong to portray American tourism as a sector without support. The U.S. still has infrastructure that few countries can offer on the same scale: a large number of international airports, a strong hotel base, experience in organizing mega-events, globally recognizable cities, and a large domestic market that can soften external shocks. The host cities of the World Cup have strong local tourism organizations, sports marketing networks, and the capacity to receive large numbers of visitors. Los Angeles, Miami, New York New Jersey, Dallas, and San Francisco Bay Area are already brands in themselves, and the tournament gives them an opportunity to extend that reach to new markets as well.
An additional advantage is the fact that the U.S. national team will play the opening of its campaign on June 12, 2026, in Los Angeles against Paraguay, according to FIFA’s official schedule. Such a start to the tournament carries great media value, especially in the domestic market, which traditionally does not follow football with the same intensity as Europe or Latin America. If full stands, good television reach, and efficient organization of travel between cities are added to that, the U.S. can gain more than a short-term tourism impulse: it can strengthen its position on the global football map and open the door in the long term to new generations of travelers.
Can the tournament cancel out the negative trend
The most realistic answer is: partially, but not necessarily permanently. Major sporting events almost always create a temporary surge in demand. Hotels fill up, prices rise, carriers introduce additional capacity, and hospitality and retail profit from increased spending. However, historical experience shows that a mega-event in itself does not erase the structural weaknesses of a destination. If barriers to entry are high, if the country’s negative perception persists, or if travel costs go too high, part of the potential benefit can melt away as soon as the last match ends.
That is why the real effect of the World Cup will be measured on two separate levels. The first is immediate, tied to the summer of 2026, when millions of fans and guests will generate strong but time-limited spending. The second is long-term, and it depends on whether the U.S. will succeed in sending visitors the message that it is worth returning to the country outside the sporting spectacle as well. If the administration, the tourism industry, and the host cities use the tournament to speed up visa processing, reduce congestion at entry points, and improve the reputational tone toward foreign guests, the World Cup can become a turning point. If everything is reduced to a one-time wave of fans while the underlying problems remain untouched, 2026 could be only a strong exception in a weaker multi-year trend.
The political climate and the tourism economy can no longer be separated
The case of American tourism shows how interconnected politics, diplomacy, and the economy are. Tourism is not only a matter of attractions, airline routes, and hotel beds. It is also a matter of a country’s reputation, its attitude toward foreigners, the efficiency of institutions, and the public message the country sends to the world. When business travelers, students, families, and fans begin to weigh political risk as seriously as the price of a flight, the tourism balance becomes a directly political issue.
That is precisely why the debate over whether the 2026 World Cup can stop the “Trump slump” goes beyond sport. The tournament will almost certainly bring great visibility, hundreds of thousands of guests, and a strong economic impulse in the host cities. But whether that will be enough for American international tourism to return to a stable upward path will depend less on football, and more on how much the country will succeed in convincing the world that it is once again easily accessible, organizationally reliable, and truly open to the arrival of foreign guests.
Sources:- U.S. Travel Association – overview of the state of international arrivals in the U.S. and the decline in March 2025. link- U.S. Travel Association – updated industry overview from March 30, 2026, and the movement of international arrivals at the beginning of 2026. link- World Travel & Tourism Council – estimate of the decline in international tourism spending in the U.S. during 2025. link- FIFA – official data on hosts, cities, and the scope of the 2026 World Cup. link- FIFA – official match schedule of the 2026 World Cup. link- FIFA and WTO – estimates of the economic impact of the 2026 World Cup. link- U.S. Department of State – official information on global wait times for visa interviews. link- U.S. Travel Association – industry views on visa procedures and U.S. competitiveness ahead of major events. link- U.S. Travel Association – announcement of additional consular capacity and accelerated procedures for FIFA visitors. link- Associated Press – report on the decline in business travel to the U.S. and reactions from the international market. link
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