Russian outbound tourism defies isolation: can travel become a bridge to peace while the war continues?
In February 2026, almost four years after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European political and economic relations with Moscow remain burdened by sanctions, travel restrictions, and the prolonged suspension of many transport links. Yet one phenomenon keeps returning to the headlines: Russian outbound tourism is growing strongly again, and some Russian travelers—paradoxically—spend their holidays at the same “neutral” destinations as Ukrainians. That encounter on the beaches of Thailand, in Dubai hotels, or at Gulf airports raises an uncomfortable but important question: can tourism, even in circumstances like these, be a channel for dialogue and a reduction of tensions, or is it an illusion of normality that conceals the continuation of war?
Money flows out, despite sanctions
Data on cross-border money flows indicate that Russian spending on foreign travel recovered faster than many expected in 2022 and 2023. In analytical materials and releases related to the balance of payments, Russia’s central bank records an increase in expenditures on services related to travel and tourism, noting that the dynamics change under the influence of the ruble exchange rate and the availability of logistics. In public statements reported by the media, as well as in statistics linked to the balance of payments, tens of billions of dollars a year are mentioned that Russian citizens spend on foreign travel—an amount that, according to available data, has approached or in some years reached pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, that growth does not mean a return to the “old routes.” Closed airspace and restrictions for Western carriers have redirected travelers toward destinations that have maintained a more open approach to Russia, as well as toward transit hubs that can “bridge” the break in direct routes.
Why Thailand and the UAE?
In Southeast Asia, Thailand has emerged as one of the key points of Russia’s tourism comeback. Thai media and regional business sources cite the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and estimates that the Russian market could exceed the record levels of 2024, when around 1.74 million Russian visitors are mentioned. In parallel, analyses of Thailand’s tourism performance in 2025 show that the country had about 32.9 million international arrivals in total, with fluctuations linked to demand from China and perceptions of safety—yet the Russian market remains one of the more stable within that structure.
In the Gulf, the UAE—especially Dubai—continues to strengthen its status as a “neutral” center for tourism, business, and transfers. Official data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (DET) state that Dubai recorded 9.88 million international overnight stays in the first half of 2025, with growth compared to the previous year. Independent media reports and statistical summaries then note that in 2025 Dubai reached about 19.6 million international visitors, continuing a multi-year growth trend. An additional indicator of the city’s role as a global hub is the data that Dubai International Airport processed a record 95.2 million passengers in 2025.
For some Russian travelers, the UAE is not only a destination but also a logistical “valve”: a place where it is easier to pay for services, find flights to third countries, and maintain contacts with the global services market. For some Ukrainians, the Gulf is also a space for transit, work, and rest, with the choice of destination often guided by security and economic reasons.
Encounters between Russians and Ukrainians on “neutral ground”
One reason this topic is socially sensitive is the fact that tourism creates an unexpected “closeness” between people from countries at war. In public discourse, situations are mentioned more and more often in which Russian and Ukrainian families meet in hotels, on excursions, or in restaurants at destinations that are formally not part of the Western sanctions regime. At the level of personal experience, such encounters can be quiet—without conversation—but sometimes they also become a повод for debate about whether anything can change “from below,” outside diplomatic negotiations.
Here one must be cautious: the fact that people meet on vacation does not automatically mean dialogue or a move toward peace. At best, tourism creates minimal space to recognize the other side as people, not as abstract “labels” from wartime propaganda. At worst, it creates resentment, because part of the public in Ukraine and among the Ukrainian diaspora perceives such scenes as the normalization of aggression or insensitivity to the reality of war.
Tourism and peace: what international institutions say
The idea that travel can reduce tensions is not new. In United Nations messages on the occasion of World Tourism Day, the link between tourism and peace is emphasized, with the stress that sustainable tourism can create jobs, foster inclusiveness, and strengthen local economies, while cultural exchange can broaden horizons and encourage mutual respect. UN Tourism, for example, highlighted the theme “Tourism and Peace” for World Tourism Day 2024, emphasizing how travel and cultural exchange can contribute to understanding and reducing tensions, albeit with the condition of responsible management and respect for local communities.
Such documents and messages, however, are not “proof” that tourism in practice can stop a war. They rather describe potential: tourism as a form of “soft” international connectedness, which can facilitate contacts, but cannot replace political decisions, security guarantees, and accountability for war crimes.
The mechanics of the comeback: routes, hubs, and constraints
Outbound tourism from Russia today operates in a different infrastructure than before 2022. Because of air-traffic restrictions, some travelers rely on connections via Turkey, the UAE, or other hubs that have viable flights to Russian cities. Certain airlines from the region, including low-cost carriers, are expanding routes toward Russian markets, as shown by the example of opening new routes from the Emirates to Russia.
On the payments side, due to limitations on international card systems and banking sanctions, travelers often seek destinations where they can more easily arrange financial transactions, use alternative payment methods, or prepay packages through local intermediaries. This does not mean travel is “without problems”; it means it has adapted.
What host countries gain—and where the risks are
For Thailand, the UAE, and other countries receiving a larger number of Russian visitors, tourism revenue means jobs and stabilization of the sector after the pandemic. Thailand, according to analytical estimates, had a decline in total arrivals in 2025 compared to 2024, and revenues from foreign visitors also fluctuated. In such an environment, a stable market—such as the Russian one—becomes an important shock absorber.
For Dubai, growth in visitors fits into a broader model of urban development that combines tourism, business services, real estate, and global aviation. Record results in visitation and passenger traffic in 2025 further reinforce the city’s role as an international hub.
The risks, however, are multiple. First, there is reputational risk: destinations perceived as “safe havens” for citizens of a sanctioned country can come under pressure from the public or political actors. Second, the need to monitor financial flows grows to prevent violations of sanctions regimes, especially through sophisticated services and intermediary arrangements. Third, there is also a social risk on the ground: conflicts in hotels, verbal incidents, or the spread of disinformation can переносить wartime tensions into the tourism space.
Can tourism really be a “bridge”?
The answer depends on what we expect from tourism at all. If by “bridge” we mean that travel by itself will open the path to official peace, that assumption is unrealistic. The war in Ukraine is conducted with weapons and diplomacy; its end depends on political decisions and security arrangements, not on the season in Phuket or hotel occupancy in Dubai.
But if the “bridge” is understood more modestly—as the possibility that people in contact avoid dehumanizing the other side, hear a different experience, or reduce the level of automatic hatred—then tourism can have a limited but real role. UN messages about tourism as a factor that “connects people” do not promise miracles; they remind us that contacts among citizens are part of a broader social framework in which peace becomes possible.
In practice, such a role of tourism depends on context and responsibility. Hosts can reduce risk through clear rules, incident prevention, and a focus on safety. Tourism companies can communicate standards of behavior and ensure that business does not serve to circumvent international regimes. Travelers, on the other hand, can choose whether to close themselves into their own information bubble or acknowledge that the war has real consequences for the people they meet, even when they are at the same pool or on the same airplane.
Broader context: global tourism recovery and a “new geography” of travel
Globally, international tourism has returned to high levels after the pandemic, with strong regional differences and new patterns of demand. In its statistical overviews, UN Tourism highlights the recovery of travel and revenues, but also the need to manage sustainability and reduce the negative impacts of mass tourism. In this “new geography” of travel, Russian outbound tourism becomes an example of how markets can be redirected: when traditional corridors close, travelers seek alternatives that are politically and logistically available.
For Europe and Croatia, this topic has two layers. The first is economic: changes in tourist flows change competition in the Mediterranean market and redistribute spending. The second is social and political: the debate about what “normality” means while the war continues, and where the boundaries lie between individual freedom of movement and moral responsibility.
While diplomatic processes, sanctions packages, and military dynamics continue to change, tourism remains one of the few spheres in which, despite everything, citizens of the warring sides meet. These encounters do not resolve the conflict, but they remind us that war, however “geopolitical,” always has a human face—even when it hides behind sunglasses and hotel wristbands.
Sources:- Bank of Russia – pages and publications on the balance of payments (estimates and analytical comments) (link)- Bank of Russia – publication “Russia’s Balance of Payments” (analytical bulletins) (link)- Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (DET) – press release on visitors in H1 2025 (link)- Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (DET) – Tourism Performance Report Jan–Oct 2025 (link)- Associated Press – Dubai International Airport and the 2025 record (link)- Skift – analysis of arrivals in Thailand in 2025 citing Thai official figures (link)- Bangkok Post – TAT estimates on Russian arrivals and expectations for the season (link)- UN Press – UN Secretary-General message on tourism and peace (World Tourism Day 2024) (link)- UN Tourism – World Tourism Day 2024 “Tourism and Peace” (link)
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