Rising aviation fuel prices threaten a new increase in ticket prices: European airlines warn that the war in Iran is changing the flight market
Europe’s largest airlines are warning that passengers could feel a new round of airline ticket price increases in the coming months, and the main reason is the sharp jump in aviation fuel prices after the expansion of the war in Iran and disruptions to traffic and supply across the wider Middle East region. The message from the industry is becoming ever more direct: carriers can still soften part of the blow for some time through previously contracted fuel prices and internal reserves, but if the crisis is prolonged, the higher cost will inevitably be passed on to passengers. In practice, this means that more expensive tickets could first be felt on longer and international routes, especially where fuel costs and detour routes are already heavily under pressure. At the same time, some companies are trying to draw a business opportunity from the disruption, so they are increasing the number of flights to Asia and Africa in order to make up for the gap created by the weakening of major Middle Eastern hubs.
The industry warns that there is not much room left for cushioning
At the centre of the debate is the fact that fuel remains the largest individual and at the same time the most unstable cost in airline operations. According to an analysis by the International Air Transport Association, or IATA, jet fuel currently accounts for around 30 percent of airlines’ operating costs. While demand for travel after the pandemic helped carriers improve their balance sheets, that recovery is now facing a new test. IATA’s fuel price monitor showed that the global average price of aviation fuel rose last week to 197 dollars per barrel, which is an increase of 12.6 percent compared with the previous week. This is an exceptionally important signal for the industry because growth of that size in a short period changes calculations even on routes that until yesterday looked profitable.
The leaders of the leading European companies therefore no longer hide that keeping current ticket prices for a long time is not realistic. At the Airlines for Europe association meeting in Brussels on 19 March, the biggest players on the market, including Lufthansa Group, Air France-KLM, IAG, Ryanair and easyJet, jointly warned that Europe is entering a period in which political instability, disruptions in airspace and more expensive fuel will together affect the price of flying. Their message to European institutions was very clear: the continent must choose between preserving connectivity and competitiveness or accepting a scenario in which tickets will be more expensive and some routes will gradually weaken or disappear. Such wording is not only an attempt to put pressure on Brussels, but also an admission that margins in the sector are too thin to withstand another major energy shock for long.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is so important to the whole story
The root of the problem is not only the rise in the price of oil itself, but the market’s fear of a longer disruption to supply. According to the International Energy Agency, the Strait of Hormuz remains the main export route for oil produced by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain and Iran. Any more serious disruption in that narrow sea passage does not hit only tankers and refineries, but a whole range of industries, and among those most directly affected is air transport. Aviation fuel is not a commodity that carriers can easily and quickly replace with a cheaper alternative, and the problem is further complicated by the fact that Europe does not have unlimited refining capacity and is already competing with Asia for the same sources of supply.
That is precisely why the war in Iran is not just geopolitical news from the other side of the world for European carriers, but an immediate business risk. When fear appears on the market that the supply chain will be interrupted or significantly slowed, the price of crude oil rises, and the market for refined products such as aviation fuel reacts even more strongly. Financial media have reported in recent days that jet fuel prices in certain regions have come close to the highest levels in almost four years, with a very pronounced premium compared with the benchmark crude oil price. This means that the problem is not only expensive oil, but also ever more expensive refining and the logistics of delivering fuel to airports and carriers.
Tickets may not become more expensive overnight, but the pressure is already spilling over
Passengers often assume that the ticket price automatically follows every daily movement in the oil market, but reality is somewhat more complex. Large airlines buy part of their fuel in advance, through so-called hedging, that is, protection against sudden market fluctuations. Such a strategy can temporarily soften the blow because a carrier flies for several months or quarters at prices agreed earlier. But protection is not unlimited and does not cover all needs, especially if the crisis lasts longer or if prices remain high through several accounting periods. That is exactly why European carriers are now saying that they cannot “indefinitely” absorb rising costs.
For consumers, this means that what is most likely to follow is not an immediate, one-off jump in all prices, but a gradual increase in new sales cycles. The first to be hit are flexible tickets bought closer to the departure date, then seasonal flights to more distant destinations, and then also the wide network of European and intercontinental routes if high prices persist. In translation, passengers who buy in advance may still catch more favourable conditions for some time, while summer and autumn demand could bring more noticeable corrections. At the same time, the industry is not hiding the other side of the problem either: higher ticket prices can begin to erode demand, especially among tourists sensitive to cost and in markets where family travel is already under pressure from inflation.
Europe is seeking more room on routes to Asia and Africa
At the same time, the crisis is also creating a new balance of power in the global flight market. Middle Eastern hubs have for years been the key link between Europe and Asia, Africa and Australia. When those hubs operate at reduced capacity or face disruptions, European carriers see an opportunity to win back part of the traffic they had previously ceded to competitors from the Gulf. According to available information from the industry, Lufthansa has already added dozens of flights to Asia, and Lufthansa Group has officially announced that in March it is adjusting its schedule and increasing capacity on selected routes to Asia and Africa. Air France-KLM has also signalled stronger capacity on those markets, relying on what it describes as healthy demand to Asia and Africa.
Such moves show that aviation almost never reacts only defensively. When one part of the network is disrupted, another tries to adapt quickly and take over the traffic. That is why, in parallel with warnings about more expensive tickets, a new market battle is developing for passengers who still want to reach distant destinations, but want to avoid the uncertainty of transferring through the Middle East. Some European companies are therefore strengthening direct or alternatively connected flights via Asia, while some carriers are also adjusting their network to Africa or other markets that may be operationally less risky than routes passing through the most sensitive corridors.
What this means for passengers, tourism markets and European hubs
If the current trend continues, the consequences will not stop only at higher prices. Air transport functions as a system of communicating vessels: more expensive fuel changes the profitability of routes, fleet availability, decisions on opening and closing lines, and even tourist flows. Analyses from the industry are already warning that part of outbound travel from the Middle East could weaken, which could hit destinations that rely on wealthier guests from that region. On the other hand, some Mediterranean countries could profit if passengers choose Spain, Portugal or Greece instead of Gulf destinations. In other words, the same crisis can simultaneously reduce traffic for some and increase it for others.
European hubs, especially those with strong intercontinental networks, in such a scenario become more important again than in recent years. For Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam or London, this can mean more transfer passengers and greater pressure on capacity. But at the same time responsibility is also growing, because every increase in supply requires more available aircraft, more crews and greater security of fuel supply. If fuel remains expensive and difficult to obtain, even carriers that are currently taking advantage of the market opportunity could quickly find themselves in a situation where they have to cut frequencies or raise ticket prices faster than they had planned.
The debate in Brussels: energy, competitiveness and green rules
The meeting of airline leaders in Brussels was not only a warning about prices, but also a political message to the European Union. Airlines for Europe argues that European carriers are losing competitiveness compared with companies and hubs outside the EU, especially when existing energy shocks are compounded by European costs linked to environmental rules. The pace of introducing synthetic sustainable fuel, the so-called eSAF, is particularly being problematised, for which the industry claims it is not yet available in quantities and at prices that would allow the implementation of the planned obligations without a strong blow to operations and ticket prices. In its joint declaration, A4E warns that, if the regulatory framework remains unchanged, passengers could end up between two pressures: more expensive conventional fuel because of the crisis and a more expensive green transition because of an insufficient supply of alternative fuels.
That debate is by no means secondary, because it shows how the current wartime disruption is refracted through a much wider European dilemma. On the one hand, the EU does not want to give up climate goals and changing the fuel structure in aviation. On the other hand, companies warn that competitiveness cannot be defended only by political declarations if European carriers pay obligations that their global competitors bypass through other hubs. In practical terms, that conflict means that passengers in the next period could pay more not only because of the market price of kerosene but also because of the regulatory framework in which European companies operate.
How serious the situation is and what comes next
According to available estimates, the current crisis has already wiped out tens of billions of dollars in market value from the world’s largest airlines and opened the question of whether demand can be maintained if the cost of flying rises further. Warnings from the industry are not yet dramatic in the sense of an immediate paralysis of European traffic; there are no signs of a general collapse of flights in Europe, nor confirmation that fuel shortages will immediately hit all major airports. But the tone of the sector’s leading figures is serious and cautious. They say that the situation can change from week to week, depending on the development of the conflict, the condition of supply routes and whether the price shock will ease or deepen.
For passengers, travel agencies and airports, this means one thing: the period of predictable prices and stable flight networks has once again been called into question. If tensions in the Middle East ease, part of the current pressure could gradually deflate, and companies would more easily avoid larger price increases. If, however, the crisis is prolonged, the European air transport market is probably entering a phase of more expensive tickets, selective strengthening of routes to Asia and Africa and an ever sharper battle over who can maintain global connectivity without losing profitability. That is precisely why the warnings that European airlines sent from Brussels should not be read only as a business alarm, but also as an announcement of a possible new reshuffling of the world’s air corridors.
Sources:- The Guardian – report on warnings from Europe’s largest airlines about rising ticket prices due to the war in Iran and more expensive fuel (link)
- IATA – Jet Fuel Price Monitor with the latest weekly data on the global price of aviation fuel (link)
- IATA – analysis of the relationship between ticket prices, aviation fuel and inflation, including data on fuel’s share in airlines’ operating costs (link)
- Lufthansa Group – official announcement on increasing capacity and additional flights to Asia and Africa in March 2026 (link)
- International Energy Agency (IEA) – explanation of the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global oil supply (link)
- Airlines for Europe – airline declaration on competitiveness, connectivity and regulatory pressure in European aviation (link)
- Financial Times – analysis of the jump in aviation fuel prices and supply disruptions in the context of the war in Iran (link)
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