War, warnings and uncertainty cast a shadow over the Saudi tourism dream
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has been building one of the most ambitious tourism projects in the world. Through the Vision 2030 programme, the Kingdom is seeking to reduce its dependence on oil and build a new economic image of the country in which tourism, entertainment, culture, sport and luxury destinations would play a key role. That strategy has already delivered measurable results: according to official Saudi data, the country surpassed the threshold of 100 million domestic and foreign visits ahead of schedule, and then raised the target to 150 million visitors by 2030. In the meantime, huge projects such as NEOM, Diriyah, Qiddiya and tourism zones on the Red Sea have been launched, while the state promotion of Saudi Arabia in the international tourism industry has become aggressive, expensive and highly visible.
But at the beginning of March 2026, that grand strategy is entering a sensitive period. War developments in the Middle East, the risk of missile and drone attacks, disruptions in air traffic and new warnings from foreign governments have raised a question that is crucial for tourism: can a destination that is building an image of safety, luxury and major events retain the confidence of travellers when the entire region comes under heightened security scrutiny? That is precisely why, in recent days, the Saudi tourism story is no longer only a story about investments, hotels and spectacular projects, but also about the perception of risk, political instability and the limits of state marketing at a moment of geopolitical crisis.
The big plan that was supposed to change the country’s economic map
Saudi tourism expansion did not arise overnight. It is part of a broader state turn through which the country is trying to prepare for a period in which oil revenues will no longer be sufficient to sustain the old economic model. Within that framework, tourism has been given an almost strategic status. According to Saudi institutions, the goal is not only to attract pilgrims to Mecca and Medina, but to turn Saudi Arabia into a year-round destination for holidays, culture, congresses, sport and luxury travel. In public appearances by Saudi officials and in promotional materials, it is constantly emphasised that this involves hundreds of billions of dollars in investments, the opening of new jobs and an effort to increase tourism’s share in gross domestic product to 10 percent by 2030. Such a narrative has for years been reinforced at international tourism fairs as well, where Saudi Arabia appeared as a country that is not only buying advertising, but also a new global position.
The numbers have, at least until now, helped that story. Saudi Vision 2030 and the Ministry of Tourism state that the country crossed the line of 100 million domestic and foreign tourists in 2023, and that growth continued in 2024, when almost 116 million visits were recorded. Official data published during 2025 additionally highlighted strong growth in international tourism receipts and arrivals compared with the pre-pandemic year of 2019. The World Travel & Tourism Council also estimated that the tourism sector would exceed 10 percent of Saudi GDP in 2025 and reach record employment. In other words, the Saudi tourism transformation was no longer just a political slogan, but a project that had begun to show real economic results and attract the attention of competing destinations.
Why security perception matters for tourism as much as infrastructure
Tourism is among the most sensitive economic sectors when the security picture of a region begins to deteriorate. Travellers do not make decisions only on the basis of price, hotel quality or the attractiveness of a destination, but also according to the impression that they can move around without major risks and that air links will function without interruption. In that sense, Saudi Arabia is now undergoing a test that cannot be solved with money alone. At the beginning of March, the United States raised its travel advisory for Saudi Arabia to a higher level and cited the risk of armed conflict, terrorism, local laws and restrictions on the provision of consular assistance, together with information that on 03 March 2026 the departure of non-essential American personnel and their family members was authorised due to security risks. The British Foreign Office also updated its guidance, while Canada and Australia further emphasised caution or the recommendation that travel should be reconsidered because of renewed regional tensions, possible fragments of intercepted missiles and the risk of disruptions to air traffic.
Such warnings do not automatically mean that tourists will cancel trips en masse, but in the tourism industry they have a strong psychological effect. A large part of the market, especially the Western market, plans travel months in advance and relies precisely on the recommendations of foreign ministries, insurance companies and airlines. When words such as “armed conflict”, “missile threats”, “limited consular capabilities” or “reconsider the necessity of travel” appear in those documents, that directly affects the perception of the destination. It is especially problematic when air disruptions are added to that, because modern tourism, and especially the luxury and business tourism on which Saudi Arabia is strongly counting, depends on the predictability of travel almost as much as on the quality of accommodation.
Air traffic as the weak point of the region’s tourism ambition
In the past few days, the crisis has not remained only at the level of diplomatic warnings. Reports of disruptions in air traffic and caution regarding the use of part of Middle Eastern airspace have shown how interconnected and vulnerable the region’s tourism infrastructure is. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency published information on the conflict zone and risks for operators in part of Middle Eastern and Gulf airspace, while media reports recorded restrictions, cancellations and detour routes. For Saudi Arabia, this is especially sensitive because it does not base its tourism growth only on domestic traffic, but also on the idea that it should be easily accessible from Europe, Asia and the wider region.
The problem is broader than Saudi Arabia itself. In recent decades, the Gulf states have become global transit hubs connecting continents. When that corridor is disrupted, the consequences are not only local. Travellers become more cautious, airlines restructure schedules, and insurers and travel organisers introduce additional risk assessments. In such an environment, it is not hard to imagine how some travellers, especially those choosing a destination among several similar options, may postpone a trip to Saudi Arabia and opt for safer, or at least more stably perceived, destinations in the Mediterranean, Asia or North Africa.
A special signal was also sent by the situation with religious travel. According to agency reports, war developments and disruptions in air traffic have already caused problems for tens of thousands of Umrah pilgrims, including cancellations and delays in the return of some travellers from Indonesia and Malaysia. Although religious tourism is a specific segment and cannot be fully compared with the luxury or congress market, it very clearly shows how quickly geopolitical instability can move from an abstract security risk into a concrete logistical problem with human consequences. When such news spreads through international media, it also affects the broader market that Saudi Arabia is trying to win over.
ITB Berlin: from a demonstration of confidence to a more restrained picture
The ITB Berlin fair is traditionally one of the most important places for presenting national tourism strategies, concluding business deals and signalling ambitions to the global industry. In previous years, Saudi Arabia appeared on those stages with pronounced self-confidence. In 2024, at ITB it celebrated breaking through the threshold of 100 million visitors, and its presentation fitted into the broader strategy through which the Kingdom wanted to show that from a closed and conservative market it was becoming one of the most aggressive new tourism powers. In such an environment, every appearance was a political and marketing message as much as it was a business promotion.
This year’s edition of ITB Berlin, held from 03 to 05 March 2026, however arrived in a different context. The organisers emphasised a strong international response, more than 5,800 exhibitors from around 170 countries and the 60th anniversary edition of the fair, but at the same time pushed into focus the theme of balance, resilience and the industry’s adaptation to a world in crisis. The change in tone alone says enough about the moment in which global tourism finds itself. While official ITB publications particularly highlighted major national appearances by countries such as Thailand, Egypt, Turkey and Italy, Saudi presence this time did not dominate the fair’s narrative as it had in previous seasons. That does not mean Saudi Arabia was not present, but it does mean that its appearance could no longer be viewed outside the wider security background that overshadowed the region.
This is precisely where an important symbolic problem arises for Saudi tourism. For years, through investments and international campaigns, the country tried to show that it was not only a regional player, but a future global centre of travel. However, when at a moment of serious crisis its tourism message quietens or gets lost among warnings of war, air disruptions and diplomatic tensions, a gap emerges between the desired image and the market’s actual perception. For a destination that is spending enormous sums of money to impose itself as a new star of global tourism, such a gap may be more costly than a short-term drop in bookings.
Can money neutralise geopolitics
The key question is not only whether Saudi Arabia will continue to build hotels, airports and entertainment zones. It is almost certain that it will, because the tourism sector is built into the very core of the state development strategy. The question is whether enormous investment momentum can neutralise geopolitical risk in the eyes of travellers and business partners. For now, the answer is not unequivocal. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia still has enormous financial resources, strong state control over projects and the political will to withstand short-term shocks. In addition, a large part of its tourism volume consists of domestic guests and regional travel, which softens part of the external blows.
On the other hand, tourism is not only an infrastructural sector, but also an industry of trust. Travellers planning a holiday on the Red Sea, a business event in Riyadh or a luxury stay in new megaprojects assess not only the quality of the offer, but also the wider political environment. This applies especially to distant markets where Saudi Arabia is only just building a travel habit. If, in the minds of those travellers, the country starts to be associated primarily with regional war, missile threats and uncertain flights, the marketing effort required to restore confidence will be considerably greater. In tourism, reputation is built over years, and it can be damaged in a few days of intense crisis.
What follows for the Saudi tourism strategy
According to available official data and strategic documents, Saudi Arabia is not, for the time being, giving up on its tourism targets. On the contrary, state institutions continue to emphasise revenue growth, the increase in international arrivals, the development of hotel capacities and the raising of the target to 150 million visitors by 2030. In that sense, the current crisis will probably not change the basic direction of Saudi policy. But it may change the pace, the structure of demand and the way in which the country will have to communicate with the world. Instead of the self-confident presentation of future megaprojects, the focus will, at least temporarily, have to shift towards travel safety, system resilience and the ability to keep the crisis under control.
That is precisely why the current moment for Saudi Arabia has a broader meaning as well. This is not only a test of one tourism campaign, but a check of how resilient a development model based on spectacular projects is when it faces real geopolitical instability. In recent years, the country has managed to prove that it can very quickly increase the number of visits and impose itself on the tourism map of the world. What it now has to prove is that it can retain credibility even when circumstances no longer favour promotional slogans. In an industry that lives on the feeling of safety, ease of movement and predictability, it is precisely that test that will decide whether the Saudi tourism dream remains a story of rise or enters a period in which every new investment will also have to carry the burden of regional uncertainty.
Sources:- Saudi Tourism Authority – official overview of tourism targets within Vision 2030, including the new target of 150 million visitors by 2030. (https://www.sta.gov.sa/en/vision2030/)- Saudi Vision 2030 – official overview of progress, including the fact that almost 116 million tourists were recorded in 2024 and the sector’s continued growth (https://www.vision2030.gov.sa/en/media/articles/a-national-journey-shaped-by-opportunity-and-enduring-impact)- Saudi Press Agency – official data on the 2024 tourism report and the fact that the country was above 100 million visitors for the second year in a row (https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/N2344293)- Ministry of Tourism Saudi Arabia – official data on the growth of international tourism receipts and arrivals in 2025 compared with 2019 (https://mt.gov.sa/about/media-center/news/221/Saudi-Arabia-Tops-Global-Raking-in-Growth-of-International-Tourism-Receipts-in-Q1-2025-)- U.S. Department of State / U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia – updated travel advisory and the decision of 03 March 2026 on the departure of non-essential personnel due to security risks (https://sa.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-saudi-arabia-march-03-2026/)- U.S. Department of State – current travel advisory level for Saudi Arabia and explanation of the risks (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/saudi-arabia-travel-advisory.html)- GOV.UK – British travel guidance for Saudi Arabia, security risks and updated recommendations (https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/saudi-arabia)- Government of Canada – warning to avoid non-essential travel because of regional tensions, possible missile fragments and airspace closures (https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/saudi-arabia)- Australian Government Smartraveller – recommendation to reconsider the need to travel to Saudi Arabia (https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/middle-east/saudi-arabia)- ITB Berlin – official announcement of ITB Berlin 2026 and an overview of the highlighted national appearances at the jubilee edition of the fair (https://www.itb.com/en/press/press-releases/news_28609.html)- ITB Berlin Convention 2026 – official programme and focus on balance, adaptation and the transition of the global tourism industry (https://www.itb.com/en/press/press-releases/news_27136.html)- Associated Press – report on travel disruptions for Umrah pilgrims and the consequences of the regional conflict on travel to Saudi Arabia (https://apnews.com/article/668bb795399e8a4e6822e91e628c3851)
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