The United States finds itself at a critical juncture that could redefine the global balance of power in space for decades to come. After more than half a century of undisputed leadership, from the legendary Apollo moon landing to the establishment and continuous operation of the International Space Station (ISS), American dominance in space is no longer guaranteed. This position must be constantly earned, and today it is more threatened than ever before. The sense of unease spreading through scientific and political circles is not without reason; it stems from a combination of internal budgetary pressures and an external, extremely ambitious, and strategically focused rival – China.

The fear of losing primacy in space is not just a matter of national pride. Leadership in space is directly linked to national security, both in economic and military terms. Space infrastructure is the foundation of modern telecommunications, global navigation, weather and climate change monitoring, and intelligence activities. Losing the leading role would mean relinquishing control over key technologies and strategic positions of the future, which could have unforeseeable consequences.

Countdown for the International Space Station

One of the most immediate threats to the American space program is the planned decommissioning of the International Space Station in 2030. This magnificent example of international cooperation, which has enabled a continuous human presence in low Earth orbit (LEO) for a quarter of a century, is nearing the end of its operational life. NASA has been preparing the ground for a transition to commercial space stations for years, encouraging private companies to develop successors to the ISS. The goal was to ensure that the United States would not be left without a platform for microgravity research.

However, that transition plan is now under serious question. Proposals for significant cuts to NASA's budget have slowed progress and created uncertainty among commercial partners. Without adequate and stable funding, there is a real danger that no American commercial station will be operational by the time the ISS ceases operations. This would create a dangerous vacuum, interrupting decades of continuous research and potentially forcing the US to once again depend on other nations for access to space, as was the case after the retirement of the Space Shuttle program in 2011, when American astronauts relied on Russian Soyuz spacecraft for years.

A trillion-dollar economy at stake

Low Earth orbit is not just a testing ground for scientific research; it is on the verge of becoming the next industrial revolution. Following the model of the telecommunications boom sparked by the Telstar 1 satellite in the 1960s, the LEO economy has the potential to become a trillion-dollar market within the next decade. Through the work of the ISS National Laboratory, the foundations have been laid for the commercialization of space, opening the door to innovations that could transform life on Earth.

We are already witnessing revolutionary breakthroughs. In microgravity conditions, perfectly pure optical fibers (like ZBLAN fibers) are being produced that cannot be made on Earth, and which have hundreds of times the bandwidth of existing ones. Pharmaceutical companies are using the ISS to crystallize proteins, enabling the development of more effective drugs for diseases like cancer and muscular dystrophy. Advances in biotechnology, including 3D bioprinting of tissues and organs, promise medical breakthroughs. New alloys and materials with superior properties are also being developed. An interruption of access to the microgravity environment would halt these and numerous other projects, ceding leadership in these lucrative industries to those who will have access to space.

The Chinese dragon irresistibly reaches for the stars

While the United States faces budgetary uncertainties, China is carrying out its space program with incredible speed, precision, and long-term vision. Their ambitions are not hidden and are in many ways reminiscent of the American fervor from the space race era. Beijing's goal is clear: to establish dominance in low Earth orbit, build a permanent base on the Moon, and ultimately, explore and settle Mars. China's efforts are strategic, coordinated, and encompass military, civilian, and commercial aspects.

In just a few years, China has successfully built and commissioned its modular Tiangong space station ("Heavenly Palace"). The station is permanently inhabited by a three-member crew of taikonauts, who are also officers of the People's Liberation Army of China, which clearly indicates the military dimension of their program. Plans to expand the station are already underway, which will increase its capacity and scientific capabilities. Unlike the ISS, which is a symbol of international cooperation, Tiangong is an exclusively Chinese project, open to cooperation only with selected partners on Chinese terms.

China is also aggressively advancing towards the Moon. Their Chang'e program has achieved a series of successes, including the first soft landing on the far side of the Moon. According to some estimates, China could be ahead of the United States in the race to return humans to the lunar surface, with the goal of achieving this by 2030. Establishing a permanent lunar presence is considered a key step towards Mars. Although China has not yet surpassed the US in overall space capabilities, their pace of development is such that this could happen if America does not take decisive steps.

Lessons from the past and the necessity of investment

History teaches us that leadership in technology and innovation is based on bold and consistent investment. The shock caused by the Soviet launch of Sputnik in 1957 awakened America and spurred massive investments in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), culminating in the moon landing. At that time, in the 1960s, the US invested twice as much in research and development as the rest of the world combined. Today, the situation is drastically different – American investment is less than half of what allies and competitors invest together.

The proposed budget continues this worrying downward trend. It is important to put things into perspective: NASA receives less than 1% of the American federal budget. Even when funds for the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) are added, the total investment in basic scientific and technological research is only about 2%. These are investments that yield an exponential return, stimulate economic growth, create high-quality jobs, and ensure a technological advantage.

The argument that investments in innovation must be cut due to the high federal deficit is short-sighted and counterproductive. Such an approach leads to economic stagnation, reduces competitiveness, and diminishes long-term economic gains. Historically, America has always progressed through investing in growth – by building, creating, and expanding the frontiers of what is possible. Restoring NASA's budget to the levels of previous years is not just a smart investment, but a strategic imperative.

The United States has already laid the groundwork for a robust LEO economy and has begun building the foundations for a lunar economy through the Artemis program. Robotic missions to Mars have positioned them as a leader in the exploration of the Red Planet. However, without decisive political will and adequate funding, all these efforts could be in vain. The future of American leadership in space, and thus a significant part of future prosperity and security, depends on the decisions being made today.