Europe versus the U.S. in 2026: why the “Trump factor” is becoming a real burden for tourism
Global travel in 2026 is not slowing down, but it is becoming more sensitive to risks that travelers a few years ago often did not put at the top of the list. At a time when flight prices and availability fluctuate, and household budgets are under pressure from higher costs of living, politics is increasingly turning into an element of the tourism “calculation”. A growing number of travelers, especially those planning more expensive, long-haul and more complex itineraries, are seeking predictability: clear entry rules, a stable security environment, reliable infrastructure, and the sense that the rules do not change overnight. It is precisely in this segment, according to a series of current indicators, that an increasingly clear dividing line is emerging: Europe is capitalizing on a perception of stability, while the U.S. is increasingly facing reputational “noise” that affects traveler confidence.
One part of the industry sees 2026 as a year of strong air traffic and record volumes. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), in its global outlook for 2026, forecasts further growth in passenger traffic, noting that expansion is taking place under supply-side constraints, including aircraft shortages and labor shortages. Such constraints can affect capacity and flexibility, so in practice travelers and carriers look for “safer” choices: markets and destinations that offer fewer unknowns and greater ability to adjust plans. In such an environment, everything gains importance: from price and availability to a country’s reputation and the overall impression that one is traveling into a predictable environment.
Although people are traveling more globally, the destination decision is increasingly not only a matter of attractions and photographs, but also a matter of trust. For some travelers, especially from Europe, the U.S. in 2026 is becoming a destination where it is necessary to weigh the political climate, the tone of public debate, and possible consequences for the travel experience more carefully. At the same time, European countries are increasingly selling stability and organization as part of the tourism product. In the competition between the two sides of the Atlantic, this becomes a difference measured in bookings, plans, and travelers’ willingness to take on risk.
Why politics is moving from the background into travel decisions
The tourism sector has traditionally assumed that most travelers choose based on price, availability, weather, and amenities. But in recent years there have been more and more examples in which reputational shocks and political messages cross the boundaries of domestic politics and turn into an international signal. In early February 2026, in Western Europe in particular, the deterioration of sentiment toward the U.S. is being closely watched. The Guardian, citing a YouGov survey, reported a sharp drop in favorable views of the U.S. in several European countries, alongside a rise in unfavorable ratings and a strengthening sentiment emphasizing European autonomy. In tourism logic, such signals do not mean that travel will stop, but they change the emotional context of the decision.
Such a trend does not mean that travel will automatically stop, but it changes the emotional context of the decision. Travelers no longer view politics as “background noise” that does not concern them, but as a factor that can influence whether they will feel comfortable, whether the trip will proceed without unnecessary complications, and whether they will even get a sense of being welcome. In practice, travelers ask themselves very concrete questions: will entry into the country be routine, or will it be experienced as a stressful process with additional checks; will the overall tone of public debate encourage suspicion toward foreigners; will rules related to visas, security protocols, or restrictions change without a longer transition period.
In a year when flight capacity is sensitive and prices are subject to change, the need for control grows. A traveler buying a long-haul trip is also buying a sense of decision security. The more expensive the trip, the lower the tolerance for uncertainty. That is why the political image of a destination is increasingly becoming part of consumer calculation, even when the traveler claims they “don’t follow politics”. In a market where decisions are made months in advance, every strong signal—poll trends, diplomatic tensions, or media-visible controversies—can tip the scales.
Official forecasts for the U.S.: growth in arrivals, but a sensitive market
That this is a market listening for signals can be seen in official forecasts as well. The U.S. Travel Association states that international arrivals to the U.S. should return to growth in 2026, after an estimated decline in 2025, and highlights the role of major events such as the FIFA World Cup 2026 as an important стимu—an important driver for arrivals. Such estimates confirm that the U.S. still has strong appeal, especially in years when it is in the spotlight of global events. In addition, institutional forecasts also serve as a signal to the industry: airlines, hoteliers, and event organizers, who plan capacity, investments, and campaigns.
But the same framework also raises the opposite question: how “fragile” is the market when arrival growth is tied to mega-events? Major events boost demand, but they also raise expectations. Travelers coming for sports and big events often plan months in advance, buy more expensive packages, and expect logistics that work without surprises. If, in parallel, the impression of political or reputational uncertainty hardens, some travelers may judge the risk too high and turn to alternatives or shorten their stay. Tourism then faces a paradox: the event attracts attention, but it also increases the market’s sensitivity to perception.
The “Trump factor” as a reputational risk: from Washington to the Balkans
The term “Trump factor” in tourism does not refer only to day-to-day politics in Washington, but to a broader package of associations attached to the name Donald Trump. In that package are unexpected announcements and reversals, tough rhetoric toward allies, strong polarization, and a media cycle in which political controversies spread globally quickly. For some travelers, especially from Europe, this translates into a feeling that in the U.S. it is harder to plan a “calm” trip because political messages are perceived as a sign of possible rule changes or shifts in atmosphere. Tourism depends not only on objective facts, but also on perception, and in the age of social networks and global media perception is built quickly.
What makes the “Trump factor” in 2026 especially tangible is the fact that Trump’s name appears in the media outside the U.S. as well, through business and brand stories that cross borders. The clearest example comes from Belgrade. The controversy over a luxury complex project on the site of the former General Staff building in Belgrade, which was to include a branded Trump International Hotel, became international news and a topic at the intersection of tourism, politics, and cultural heritage protection. In the regional context, it is a location with a strong symbolic charge and a sensitive historical background, which gave the project additional weight and polarized the public.
The Associated Press reported that a trial has begun in Belgrade against Serbian Minister of Culture Nikola Selaković and three other officials over allegations of abuse of office and document falsification, linked to the removal of the site’s protected status. According to that report, it is an area with a strong symbolic charge, including the fact that the complex was damaged during the 1999 NATO bombing, which is why the repurposing plan triggered strong resistance from parts of the public and the professional community. The Art Newspaper then reported that plans to develop the project with Trump’s hotel collapsed after indictments and pressure, while Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty published that an investment company linked to Jared Kushner abandoned the project amid growing controversy.
For tourism, this story has a двойной effect. First, it broadens the narrative that the Trump brand, even when formally tied to private projects, is difficult to separate from politics, accusations of non-transparency, and questions of conflicts of interest. Second, it shows how reputational risk spills across borders: a traveler considering the U.S. simultaneously reads headlines about a “Trump hotel” in Europe, court proceedings, and political debates. In an era when travelers seek peace and predictability, such signals can be strong enough to redirect a decision toward an alternative. What matters is not only what happened, but how it is perceived and how it fits into the broader picture.
It is important to emphasize that the “Trump factor” does not mean the U.S. is an unsafe country or that travelers will stop coming en masse. But it does mean that part of the market enters from the outset with additional caution. In such an environment, one major controversy or several smaller episodes can be enough for a hesitant traveler to choose an alternative. And in many cases the alternative is offered precisely by Europe, which in 2026 steps forward with a message of stability and predictability.
Europe as a “safe haven”: stability as a market advantage
European destinations in 2026 are increasingly openly emphasizing stability, regulatory predictability, and institutional reliability. This does not mean Europe has no problems, from overtourism to tensions around short-term rentals and housing in big cities. But in communication toward the market, the message of clear rules, a high level of infrastructure, and the ability to adjust plans without dramatic consequences often prevails. A traveler who changes plans in Europe can more often find an alternative, whether through other routes, other cities, or other types of transport, without the feeling of being “trapped” in a single decision.
Europe’s image is also supported by concrete results. The Associated Press reported that Spain in 2025 set a new record with 96.8 million foreign visitors, alongside growth in tourism revenue and a debate about a model that should be more sustainable. Record numbers by themselves do not mean there are no problems, because growth also brings pushback from parts of local communities and pressure on housing. But they show that Europe enters 2026 with strong momentum, recognizable destination brands, and infrastructure that many travelers perceive as reliable. In the psychology of travel, that is important capital: a traveler who believes the system will work makes a decision more easily.
In parallel, the European market also uses the advantages of connectivity. The ability to combine multiple countries in one trip increases the sense of value and reduces the risk that the trip will fail if one point of the plan changes. In tourism 2026, value is not only price, but also freedom of maneuver. Europe has a structural advantage here: a dense network of cities, diverse offerings at relatively short distances, and a wide range of price tiers. In practice, that means a traveler can choose between different types of accommodation, transport, and itineraries, and adjust the trip without feeling they have to change everything.
The U.S. and the paradox of major events: the World Cup as a magnet, but also a stress test
The United States in 2026 has a strong magnet in the form of major international events, above all the FIFA World Cup 2026, which takes place in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The U.S. Travel Association emphasizes that international arrivals to the U.S. should grow again in 2026, and that a series of mega-events in the years that follow can take visits to new peaks. This is a strong lever for tourism, but also a potential vulnerability: if perception of the destination worsens, the hit is larger precisely because growth is expected. In addition, major events increase the country’s visibility, and visibility also amplifies the effect of negative stories.
Major sports events bring complexity: heightened security protocols, crowds at airports, pressure on accommodation capacity, and rising prices. In 2026, a broader context of air transport is added. IATA warns that demand growth is accompanied by a number of supply-side constraints, which can result in less itinerary flexibility and greater sensitivity to disruptions. In such an environment, travelers value predictability and the feeling that procedures are stable even more. If, alongside logistical stress, an impression of political uncertainty appears, the decision to travel becomes harder, and the traveler is more inclined to choose a destination that looks “calmer”.
This brings us back to the “Trump factor”. In tourism it does not manifest as a single decision, but as an atmosphere in which travelers fear unpleasant surprises. This is especially important in the segments of families, older travelers, and those traveling across the Atlantic for the first time, because they more often seek routine and security. If the U.S. wants to rely on the World Cup wave, the tourism sector will have to simultaneously promote attractions and reduce the perception of risk. That is a more demanding task in 2026 than classic marketing, because it competes with the impression that other destinations are more predictable. In such a contest, trust becomes just as important as content.
How uncertainty translates into bookings and the feeling of being welcome
The tourism market rarely reacts to a single statement or a single incident. It is usually a cumulative effect: multiple signals that together create an impression. The Belgrade controversy around a project bearing Trump’s name does not act in isolation, but connects to broader stories about the relationship between politics and capital and to European perceptions of U.S. politics. When polls show worsening sentiment toward the U.S., that can affect tourism through several channels: psychological, practical, and business. In each of those channels, perception has a concrete consequence for bookings, length of stay, and spending.
The psychological channel is the simplest: some travelers do not want to spend money in a country whose politics causes discomfort or a moral dilemma. The practical channel relates to fear of rules changing and a “harsher” border experience, which leads the traveler to choose a destination where they expect routine and standardized procedures. The business channel is often invisible to the public, but it is important: conferences, trade fairs, and corporate travel typically require reputational security, because organizers do not want to risk participants dropping out or negative media stories. When trust is damaged, the consequences may not be seen immediately, but they show up in the next planning cycle.
Ultimately, the rule holds that the more expensive and farther the trip, the greater the need for decision security. That is precisely why the “Trump factor” in 2026 becomes stronger than in periods when prices were lower and travelers were more willing to improvise. If a traveler is hesitating between a European and an American destination with a similar budget, every additional unknown can be decisive. In that sense, Europe gains an advantage not because it has no problems, but because problems are perceived as known and manageable, while the U.S. is increasingly perceived as a destination with higher reputational risk. That perception does not have to be universal, but it is strong enough to influence part of the market that in 2026 seeks maximum predictability.
What travelers most often seek in 2026: clarity, flexibility, and a sense of control
In 2026, travelers are increasingly focused on value for money, flexibility, and risk reduction. That includes the risk that something slips out of control, whether through rising costs or rule changes. Europe, with a wide range of carriers and strong overland connectivity, often offers more “backup plans”. If one flight is delayed or canceled, the traveler can more often find an alternative without a complete collapse of the itinerary. In the U.S., where distances are greater and alternative overland options are often slower, a planning error or a disruption in one segment of the trip can have a greater effect.
All of this does not mean the U.S. will be left without tourists. On the contrary, industry forecasts speak of growth in international arrivals in 2026, supported by major events and expected strengthening of global demand. But competition between Europe and the U.S. in 2026 is increasingly being fought on the level of trust as well. In that contest, the “Trump factor”, as a shorthand for reputational risk and perceived political uncertainty, becomes a real cost for American tourism that must be offset by additional efforts in communication and organization. Europe, on the other hand, turns its stability into a market advantage: not necessarily because it offers “less risk” in an absolute sense, but because to travelers in 2026 it appears more predictable, more understandable, and easier to control.
Sources:- IATA – Global Outlook for Air Transport (December 2025 forecast for 2026, passenger traffic growth and supply constraints) – link
- U.S. Travel Association – Travel Forecasts (projections of international arrivals for 2025/2026 and the role of major events) – link
- Associated Press – trial in Belgrade linked to removing site protection and a controversial project connected to Kushner – link
- The Art Newspaper – report on the collapse of plans for a Trump International Hotel in Belgrade after indictments – link
- Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – context of abandoning the project and the public controversy over the former General Staff site – link
- The Guardian – YouGov poll on the decline in favorable views of the U.S. in Western Europe after the Greenland dispute – link
- Associated Press – Spain’s record tourism results in 2025 and debates about sustainability – link
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