Global air traffic is growing strongly, but the industry is entering a period of more expensive fuel and greater uncertainty
Global air traffic in February 2026 continued to grow faster than had been expected at the start of the year, but at the same time new risks emerged that could in the coming months change the tone of the optimism seen so far in the aviation industry. According to data from the International Air Transport Association, global demand measured in passenger kilometres increased by 6.1 percent compared with February last year, while capacity increased by 5.6 percent. Seat occupancy reached 81.4 percent, the highest February level since comparable statistics have been kept. Behind those figures are also strong seasonal demand, especially in Asia, but also the fact that some carriers had already been operating for months under conditions of limited deliveries of new aircraft, so supply remains tight. That is precisely why February’s growth is not only an indicator of the recovery in travel, but also a signal that the market is approaching the point at which every new external shock has a greater effect on prices and flight availability.
Alongside the release of the February data, IATA explicitly warned that war broke out in the Middle East at the very end of the month and that even then a sharp rise in fuel prices was already visible. This is an important detail because the February results, although strong, do not yet reflect the full cost and operational impact of the crisis that then spilled over into March. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said that the underlying demand indicators remained solid, but also that without a clearer assessment of the duration and intensity of the conflict it is impossible to calculate precisely the full blow to the industry’s outlook. What is already visible now is rising fuel costs, pressure on air fares and adjustments to flight schedules, especially in markets that depend on traffic to the Middle East, through it, or on supply chains from the region.
Asia and Latin America drive growth, Europe remains stable
The regional picture shows that growth is not evenly distributed, but it confirms that Asian and Latin American markets are currently the main engines of global expansion. The Asia-Pacific region recorded total demand growth of 9.1 percent in February, with a very high load factor of 85.5 percent. In international traffic, carriers from that region achieved growth of 8.6 percent, and IATA states that travel for the Lunar New Year provided an additional boost. Traffic between Europe and Asia stood out in particular, rising by 14 percent, with links between Asia and Spain and Italy among the strongest flows. That figure shows that the recovery is no longer limited only to the largest Asian hub points, but is increasingly spilling over into Mediterranean markets, tourist routes and secondary European destinations.
Latin America and the Caribbean went a step further. Total demand there rose by 9.2 percent, and international traffic by as much as 13.5 percent. At the same time, capacity grew more slowly than demand, which pushed load factors to 84 percent in total traffic and 85 percent in international traffic. Such a ratio indicates that carriers from the region are currently filling existing capacity very efficiently. In practice, this means that companies have more room to preserve revenues and are less exposed to price wars than in periods when capacity expands faster than actual demand.
Europe in that picture appears calmer, but by no means weak. Total demand rose by 4.9 percent, while international traffic of European carriers was 5 percent higher than in February last year. That is a slower pace than in Asia and Latin America, but it still shows that the European market is maintaining stable growth despite saturation, high regulatory costs and already chronic infrastructure bottlenecks. In its December industry forecast, IATA attributed to Europe the strongest absolute financial result among all regions for 2026, with an estimated profit of 14 billion dollars, primarily thanks to discipline in capacity management and a strong leisure segment. But that more optimistic view was formed before the latest Middle Eastern escalation, so Europe’s actual performance will now also depend on how much longer routes to Asia, higher kerosene prices and possible flight reroutings eat into the operational efficiency achieved so far.
North America grows more slowly, the Middle East suddenly loses momentum
North America grew noticeably more slowly than the global average in February. Total demand increased by 2.8 percent, and the domestic US market by only 1.5 percent. Still, it should be noted that carriers there increased load factors thanks to relatively modest capacity growth, which shows that slower volume does not automatically mean weaker profitability. The United States and Canada remain huge markets with a large base of business and leisure travellers, but at this stage of the cycle they no longer drive global growth as they did a year or two ago. The focus is therefore shifting increasingly to how much US carriers will manage to pass more expensive fuel on to passengers without a more serious blow to demand.
The Middle East is the most worrying. A region that only a few months ago was described in IATA projections as the most profitable in the world in terms of net margin and earnings per passenger recorded only 0.8 percent growth in total demand in February. International traffic of carriers based in the Middle East increased by only 0.9 percent, while capacity grew faster, so load factors fell noticeably. That gap is especially important because this is a region whose business model is based on transit between Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania. IATA recently warned that around 10 percent of all global international passenger kilometres passed through Middle Eastern hubs during 2025, meaning that any disruption there goes far beyond the local framework. When one of the key global transit areas weakens, the consequences are seen not only on routes to the Persian Gulf, but also in connectivity between continents, the availability of wide-body aircraft and travel duration on numerous intercontinental routes.
Fuel is once again becoming the industry’s central problem
For airlines, alongside labour, fuel is the largest single cost, so every sudden price change very quickly feeds into ticket prices, route networks and profitability calculations. In December 2025, IATA forecast a somewhat more favourable cost environment for 2026, with the expectation that the average Brent price would fall to 62 dollars per barrel and jet fuel to around 88 dollars per barrel. That assumption also underpinned the optimistic scenario in which the industry would achieve a record 41 billion dollars in net profit in 2026, but with a still very thin net margin of 3.9 percent. The problem is that this framework changed significantly in just a few weeks.
According to IATA’s current monitor, the global average price of jet fuel last week stood at 195.19 dollars per barrel, while the US Argus US Jet Fuel Index reached 4.62 dollars per gallon on 30 March. At the same time, the International Energy Agency warned in its March report that the war in the Middle East is creating the largest disruption in oil supply in the history of the global market, with a dramatic drop in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise a key choke point for global energy trade. The Associated Press reported on 31 March that the price of gasoline in the United States had once again risen above four dollars per gallon for the first time since 2022, precisely under the influence of the war and disruptions in energy flows. For airlines, this means double pressure: on the one hand more expensive refuelling, and on the other the danger that higher transport costs will slow the broader economy, consumption and tourism demand.
In mid-March, IATA additionally emphasised that for the sector, sudden and unpredictable changes are often harder than the high fuel price itself. When carriers plan their networks, fares and hedging strategies, the worst-case scenario is not necessarily permanently expensive fuel, but rapid spikes that overturn previous calculations in a short period. In the current situation, this is especially visible because companies entered 2026 expecting a relatively more stable energy environment, and by the end of the first quarter they were already facing a new wave of volatility.
Africa continues to grow, but remains the most vulnerable link
At first glance, Africa’s February figures look strong. Total demand rose by 11.9 percent, more than in any other region, but capacity grew even faster, by 13.1 percent, so load factors fell to 75 percent, the lowest among all major markets. In international traffic, African carriers recorded growth of 4.8 percent, but there too with a decline in load factors. This is a good example of why growth rates alone do not tell the whole story. The continent has growing demand and great long-term potential, but the business environment remains among the most difficult in the world.
As early as December, IATA warned that Africa would probably grow faster than the global average in 2026, at around 6 percent, but with expected profit of only 200 million dollars and about 1.3 dollars in earnings per passenger, far below the global average of 7.9 dollars. The main reasons cited are high fuel costs, taxes and fees, expensive navigation, more expensive maintenance and capital, weak mutual connectivity and blocked funds from ticket sales. According to IATA data, Africa accounted for 79 percent of globally blocked airline funds at the end of October 2025, and the biggest individual problem was Algeria. In other words, the African market is not lagging because of a lack of interest in travel, but because of structural barriers that make it harder for carriers to turn growth into stable profit.
What comes next for ticket prices and flight supply
The first signals already indicate that part of the costs will end up on passengers. IATA openly states that air tickets are already rising in price and that flight schedules are being adjusted in areas linked to the Middle East and fuel supply. Walsh also warned that planned capacity growth for March slowed to 3.3 percent, while earlier projections had spoken of more than 5 percent. This is an important indicator because it shows that carriers are not merely waiting for the final outcome of the conflict, but are already changing operational decisions now. Where flights must be rerouted or extended, fuel consumption rises, fleet utilisation falls and room opens up for more expensive last available tickets on high-demand routes.
For passengers, this does not necessarily mean a general and immediate jump in prices across all markets. On competitive European and North American routes, some carriers will probably seek to retain more aggressive pricing models so as not to lose market share. But on long-haul routes, especially those that depend on Gulf hubs or pass through sensitive corridors, the room for cheaper fares could narrow quickly. At the same time, secondary effects must also be taken into account: more expensive maintenance of older fleets, higher leasing prices, delays in the delivery of new aircraft and rising regulatory costs, especially in Europe.
Strong demand is not enough on its own
The fundamental message of the February data is that the desire to travel has not weakened. IATA still estimates that the number of passengers in the whole of 2026 could reach 5.2 billion, with a record annual load factor of 83.8 percent and a long-term trend towards more than double the global demand by 2050. This confirms that air traffic remains one of the most important indicators of mobility, tourism, trade and the general economic pulse. But those same data also show how sensitive the industry is when high demand collides with expensive fuel, a geopolitical shock and limited supply.
February 2026 can therefore be read in two ways. On the one hand, it was another very good month for global air traffic, with pronounced growth in Asia and Latin America and solid results in Europe. On the other hand, at that very same moment it became clear how quickly the business environment can deteriorate when a crisis appears in an area that is decisive for both energy and intercontinental air flows. In the coming months, the key question will be whether the cost shock remains short enough for carriers to absorb it through higher fares and discipline in capacity, or whether it turns into a longer-lasting disruption that will change the forecasts for the whole of 2026.
Sources:- IATA – release on global passenger demand in February 2026, regional results and warning about rising fuel costs (link)
- IATA – industry forecast for 2026, including profit, margins, expected passenger numbers and cost projections (link)
- IATA – overview of the structural problems of African aviation, profitability, costs and connectivity (link)
- IATA – data on blocked airline funds and the concentration of the problem in Africa and the Middle East (link)
- IATA – jet fuel price monitor with the latest weekly data (link)
- Airlines for America – Argus US Jet Fuel Index for 30 March 2026 (link)
- International Energy Agency – March report on the oil market and supply disruptions due to the war in the Middle East (link)
- Associated Press – report of 31 March 2026 on the rise in fuel prices in the US under the impact of the war and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz (link)
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