Russia threatens sanctions to the West: new escalation in geopolitical relations

Amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Western countries, the Kremlin has announced new possible measures in response to the economic and military sanctions imposed due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government is considering additional economic measures, including export restrictions on key resources, in order to exert pressure on Western countries that support Ukraine. This move comes amid an escalation of conflict and Western efforts to further isolate Russia with economic sanctions covering a range of sectors, from energy to banking.

Key economic threats from the Kremlin

President Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia could consider suspending the export of vital resources such as uranium, titanium, and nickel. These metals are crucial for the aerospace, automotive, and nuclear industries, and the West, while reducing dependence on Russian energy, still largely relies on these raw materials. The threat of suspending uranium supplies, which are used in Western nuclear reactors where Russia dominates the market with its state-owned enterprise Rosatom, is particularly alarming. In the event of an export ban, the West could face serious energy crises and delays in the aerospace industry.

Geopolitical consequences and strategies of Russia

Russia, facing economic sanctions that include freezing assets and restricting the operations of key companies, increasingly uses its natural resources as a geopolitical weapon. The Kremlin estimates that suspending the export of uranium, titanium, and nickel could cause serious disruptions in Western industries, particularly in the energy sector of the US and the European Union. Although Western countries have already taken steps towards diversifying energy sources, replacing Russian metals will be a long and complex process, leaving room for Russia to exert economic pressure.

Importance of the Russian metal market

The Russian share of the global enriched uranium trade amounts to as much as 40%, while companies like Rosatom still control key flows within this sector. Titanium, a metal essential in the aviation industry, is also a point of tension. While the US is managing to reduce its dependence on Russian titanium, Europe remains largely tied to Russian sources due to limited global capacities. The same applies to nickel, where Norilsk Nickel controls a significant part of the market.

Impact on the West and response from the European Union

As the US and EU ramp up efforts to reduce dependence on Russian resources, the reality is that many Western companies still rely on Russian supplies. Companies like Airbus, Boeing, and Bombardier use Russian titanium for aircraft manufacturing, making it difficult for them to completely halt imports. The US government is trying to increase domestic production of enriched uranium, but this will take several years. On the other hand, the EU is considering new sanction packages, but faces internal disagreements as industrial dependence on Russian metals remains high.

Escalation of conflict and potential destabilization of the market

The continuation of threats from the Kremlin creates additional pressures on Western countries already facing economic challenges. If Russia indeed carries out its threats and suspends the export of key resources, the consequences could be far-reaching, further deepening political and economic divides between Russia and the West. This situation points to a long-term strategy of the Kremlin aimed at destabilizing Western industries and forcing political negotiations on its terms.