Tourism companies are entering the 2026 season with cautious optimism: bookings stable, prices under control, but costs rising ever higher
Croatian tourism companies are entering the main 2026 season without euphoria, but also without signs of a more serious disruption in demand. Bookings are stable in most properties compared with the same period last year, and some companies are even recording moderate growth, giving the sector reason for cautious optimism after the record year of 2025. At the same time, a survey conducted among larger domestic tourism systems shows that positive expectations are once again colliding with the same structural problem: costs are rising faster than revenues, narrowing the room for investment in quality, energy efficiency, and new facilities for hoteliers and the camping sector.
According to the survey conducted in March by Deloitte, the Croatian Association of Entrepreneurs in Hospitality and the Croatian Tourism Association, the companies that participated in the research manage a portfolio of 259 hotels and campsites with more than 51,000 accommodation units. In such a sample, which covers an important part of higher-category professional accommodation, most respondents estimate that the 2026 season could unfold without major fluctuations in traffic, but with a noticeably stronger need for careful management of prices, costs, and investments.
Stable demand after the record year of 2025
The broader framework for such expectations is also provided by the official statistics from 2025. According to data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sport from the eVisitor system, Croatia recorded more than 21.8 million arrivals and 110.1 million overnight stays last year, which was a new record, with growth of 2 percent in arrivals and 1 percent in overnight stays compared with 2024. The preseason and postseason stood out in particular, while growth in the peak summer months was considerably more restrained. That is precisely why business plans for 2026 are not based on the assumption of a strong jump in volume, but on stabilization and an attempt to preserve competitiveness in a market that has become more sensitive to the price-to-quality ratio.
The survey results show that 55 percent of properties are currently recording a stable booking status compared with the same period last year, while 33 percent are recording booking growth of 3 to 6 percent. When the comparison goes back to 2023, which respondents consider methodologically more comparable because of the earlier timing of the Easter holidays as this year as well, the picture is even more favorable: as many as 80 percent of properties are recording booking growth of up to 3 percent compared with March 2023. This suggests that part of the market is not going through a decline in interest, but rather a phase of more moderate growth and greater guest selectivity when making travel decisions.
That assessment is also confirmed by other available indicators. The Ministry of Tourism and Sport announced that in January 2026 Croatia recorded 264.1 thousand arrivals and 666.5 thousand overnight stays, which is an increase of 2.6 percent in arrivals and 2.5 percent in overnight stays compared with January last year. Hotels retained the dominant share of traffic, with 58 percent of total overnight stays in that month, while private accommodation and campsites also recorded growth. Although no final judgment on the summer season can be made on the basis of a single winter month, such data nevertheless indicate that Croatian tourism did not enter 2026 with a negative start.
Markets largely without major changes, but a stronger tendency toward later booking
For hoteliers, a particularly important piece of information is that 67 percent of properties do not see significant changes in booking volume by individual source markets. In other words, for now there are no pronounced signals that any of the key markets would dramatically give up on Croatia, although the sector is simultaneously warning of increased geopolitical uncertainty and slower economic momentum in part of the European markets. In addition, all respondents state that for now there are no indications of a change in the average length of guests' stay compared with last year, which is an important stabilizing element for revenue planning.
However, one pattern is standing out more and more clearly. As many as 64 percent of properties expect a more pronounced trend of last-minute bookings than last year. This means that the decision to travel, especially in the segment of family and individual guests, is increasingly being postponed until the very last moment. For operational management this is a serious challenge because companies must coordinate staffing levels, procurement, energy costs, and pricing policy under conditions of lower predictability. From the marketing side, such a trend increases the importance of digital sales channels, dynamic pricing, and more precise revenue management.
It is precisely in this area that the survey also records a broader shift in the sector. According to the participants' assessment, technological innovations have gained noticeably in importance in just one year, and interest is particularly growing in the application of solutions based on artificial intelligence in marketing and sales, revenue management, and guest relations. This points to a change in mindset in part of the industry: instead of relying only on the natural attractiveness of the destination and traditional sales dynamics, more and more companies are seeking ways to raise efficiency, personalize the offer, and offset part of the pressure on margins.
Prices are rising moderately, but there is no longer room for large increases
One of the key messages of the survey is that the tourism sector is not counting on a stronger price breakthrough this year. The majority of properties, 72 percent of them, plan an increase in the average daily accommodation price of 3 to 6 percent compared with last year. The most positive trends are expected in the segment of four- and five-star hotels and in campsites, that is, where the market still recognizes added value through standards, facilities, and service quality.
This is an important change compared with the period after the pandemic recovery, when in many markets there was more room for a sharper rise in prices. Now, however, Croatian tourism is increasingly openly facing the question of the limit of price competitiveness. Minister of Tourism and Sport Tonči Glavina has emphasized on several occasions that in 2026 the focus must be on a realistic price-to-quality ratio and sustainable development, rather than on mere volume growth. This is also in line with estimates from the sector, where the perception of Croatia as an overpriced destination is increasingly mentioned as one of the greatest risks, especially when the quality of the hospitality and accompanying offer does not match the level of prices in all segments.
Hence the relatively restrained expectations when it comes to total revenues. Although 55 percent of properties plan annual revenue growth of up to 3 percent, the very structure of the responses shows that explosive growth is not expected, but rather the maintenance of last year's level with slight improvements. For the entire 2026 season, as many as 81 percent of properties expect a repeat of the 2025 level of overnight stays, while 14 percent expect growth of up to 3 percent. In other words, the industry is not planning the season as a record one by volume, but as a season of defending the position already achieved.
Labor and energy costs remain the greatest pressure
While revenue expectations are moderate, cost estimates remain significantly more unfavorable. As many as 76 percent of companies expect cost growth to once again exceed revenue growth, which would mean a third consecutive year of such a relationship for the sector. This is perhaps the most important finding of the survey because it shows that the problem of domestic tourism is no longer only a question of demand, but also a question of the business model, profitability, and capacity for further investment.
Labor costs remain the primary source of pressure. According to the survey, 40 percent of companies expect labor cost growth of 3 to 6 percent, 30 percent expect growth between 6 and 10 percent, and almost a third expect growth greater than 10 percent. In a sector that still depends on a large number of seasonal and specialized workers, this is no surprise. The shortage of qualified labor has for years been among the most frequently mentioned problems, and the growth of wages and other employment costs is becoming a permanent item of business risk rather than a temporary disruption.
An additional burden comes from the macroeconomic environment. In its spring projection published on March 20, 2026, the Croatian National Bank estimates that average annual inflation measured by the national consumer price index in Croatia this year could reach 4.4 percent, with an explicitly upwardly revised estimate due to rising energy prices. The CNB also warns of weakened price competitiveness of Croatian tourism. For tourism companies this means double pressure: on the one hand their input costs are rising, and on the other the market does not leave them much room to pass that increase on to the guest in full without risking demand.
Because of this, the issue of energy has once again become one of the more important business issues. In conditions of increased volatility in international energy markets and more expensive energy products, investments in energy efficiency, the renewal of heating and cooling systems, and the reduction of operational consumption are no longer only part of the green transition, but also a question of short-term business resilience. That is precisely why some respondents plan to direct investments into sustainability and energy efficiency, and not only into the aesthetic or capacity-related upgrading of the product.
Risks: weaker demand, labor force, and the impression that Croatia is too expensive
When looking at the horizon of the next two years, most respondents still expect continued demand growth, up to 5 percent. But beneath that moderately positive estimate stand several pronounced warnings. Among the greatest risks, companies cite the possibility of weakening demand from key source markets, problems with the availability of qualified labor, and the perception of Croatia as an overpriced destination.
This last risk is particularly sensitive because it cuts into Croatia's very position in the Mediterranean market. In recent years Croatia has strengthened the revenue side of tourism, but at the same time it has entered a period in which guests, especially in the middle and upper-middle segments of the market, are increasingly openly comparing the domestic offer with the competition in Italy, Greece, Spain, Turkey, and other Mediterranean destinations. If in that relationship price and quality are not balanced, the market becomes more sensitive to every new price increase. That is why within the sector it is increasingly being said that the problem is not only the level of prices, but the uneven value that the guest receives for that price in individual destinations and service segments.
Additional uncertainty is also created by the international context. According to data from UN Tourism, international tourist arrivals worldwide increased by 5 percent in the first nine months of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024, which shows that global demand for travel remains strong. But the same organization simultaneously warns that high travel prices and a challenging geopolitical environment remain significant downside risks. For Croatia, as a highly open and seasonally concentrated destination, this means that the domestic result will depend not only on the attractiveness of the coast and the tradition of demand, but also on how the broader European economic and security framework develops.
Investments remain necessary, but the room for them is narrowing
Despite the pressures, tourism companies are not giving up on investments. Still, the structure of the responses shows caution. Almost 59 percent of companies plan investments in the next two years that are lower than or equal to the amounts from the previous period. This means that for now the sector is not entering a stronger new investment cycle, but is trying to maintain the pace of investment under conditions of weakened profitability. Among the 42 percent of companies that plan an increase in capital investments, priority is given to the reconstruction of accommodation units and public facilities, as well as sustainability and energy efficiency projects.
Such an investment pattern indicates that the focus is above all on raising the quality of the existing product, and less on rapidly expanding capacity. The sector has long been warning that Croatia, compared with part of the Mediterranean competition, still has a relatively low share of higher-value-added hotel accommodation, while a significant part of the total offer falls on private accommodation of varying quality. That is why investments in the renewal and modernization of professional accommodation are not only a business decision of individual companies, but also a question of the long-term structure of domestic tourism.
HBOR stands out in the survey as the most attractive source of financing, followed by own capital and bank loans. But investment optimism is still limited by the same administrative and market problems: slow urban-planning processes, regulation, unresolved issues of tourism land and maritime domain, project profitability, and labor shortages. These are obstacles that cannot be resolved within a single season, but they strongly determine how quickly the sector can respond to changes in the market and move toward a higher-quality, more resilient growth model.
A season without euphoria, but also without the right to make mistakes
Taken together, all this indicates that Croatian tourism is entering a period of stabilization in 2026. After the record figures of 2025, the sector is no longer counting on the inertia of growth, but on carefully weighing every move: from prices and sales channels to employment, investments, and cost management. The cautious optimism from the survey is not a sign of weakness, but a reflection of a more realistic assessment of a market in which demand is still present, but more sensitive than a few years ago.
In that sense, the 2026 season could be one of the more important turning points for domestic tourism. If stable demand is confirmed, along with controlled price formation and continued investment in quality, the sector will retain the ability to continue being an important pillar of the overall economy. But if costs continue to separate from revenues, and the perception of an overpriced destination strengthens further, pressure on profitability and investments could become the key development problem of Croatian tourism already in the next cycle.
Sources:- Deloitte, UPUHH and HUT – results of the survey on the expectations of tourism companies for the 2026 season and investment plans (link)- Ministry of Tourism and Sport of the Republic of Croatia – official data on tourist traffic in 2025, more than 21.8 million arrivals and 110.1 million overnight stays (link)- Ministry of Tourism and Sport of the Republic of Croatia – official data on tourist traffic in January 2026 (link)- Croatian National Bank – spring macroeconomic projection from March 2026, inflation and warning about weakened price competitiveness of tourism (link)- Ministry of Tourism and Sport of the Republic of Croatia – revenues from foreign tourists in the first nine months of 2025 amounting to 13.411 billion euros, according to CNB data (link)- UN Tourism – global tourism trends and growth in international arrivals in 2025 (link)- Poslovni dnevnik – statements by the Minister of Tourism on the focus on price competitiveness, quality, and sustainability in 2026 (link)
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