Tourism enters a new phase of uncertainty as military spending reaches nearly 2.9 trillion dollars
The global tourism industry entered 2026 with a contradictory picture: the number of international trips in 2025 reached a new post-pandemic record level, but at the same time the pressure that wars, regional crises, expensive energy, security risks and a general sense of geopolitical instability create on travel is increasing. According to UN Tourism, around 1.52 billion international tourist arrivals were recorded in 2025, about 60 million more than the year before, and demand remained solid despite inflation in tourism services and geopolitical challenges. But the same institution warns that results softened toward the end of the year and that tensions and conflicts could be one of the main risks for tourism in 2026.
At the same time, a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that world military spending in 2025 reached 2.887 trillion US dollars. This is an increase of 2.9 percent in real terms compared with 2024 and the eleventh consecutive year of growth. SIPRI states that global military spending in the decade from 2016 to 2025 rose by 41 percent, while the military burden, that is, the share of military spending in world GDP, reached 2.5 percent. Such a ratio speaks not only about defense budgets but also about political priorities in a period in which many countries simultaneously cite a lack of money for development, climate adaptation, public health, transport infrastructure and the reconstruction of affected destinations.
Tourism recovery is not the same as stability
After the pandemic, the tourism sector showed a strong capacity for recovery, but recovery does not mean that the industry has become resilient to external shocks again. UN Tourism records a four percent increase in international arrivals for 2025, while the WTTC estimates that travel and tourism contributed 11.6 trillion dollars to global GDP that year and supported 366 million jobs. These data confirm that tourism remains one of the world’s largest economic activities, with an important impact on employment, air transport, hospitality, cultural offerings, trade and local services.
But beneath the record total figures, an uneven picture is visible. UN Tourism states that the Americas and certain parts of Asia and the Pacific had mixed results, that international arrivals in Asia and the Pacific were still below the pre-pandemic level, and that results slowed in the last quarter of 2025. In the same report for 2026, growth of three to four percent is expected, but with a clear caveat: the assumption is that geopolitical conflicts will not escalate further, that inflation in tourism services will continue to ease and that favorable global economic conditions will be maintained. In other words, a sector that depends on open borders, safe air corridors and traveler confidence is increasingly operating in an environment in which none of these conditions is guaranteed.
When SIPRI’s estimate of military spending is included in the same picture, the question of tourism ceases to be only a sectoral question of bookings, hotels and airline tickets. It becomes a question of the global distribution of resources. Tourism is often described as an industry of peace because it rests on the movement of people, cultural exchange and economic interdependence. Military spending, on the other hand, rises precisely at moments when trust among states declines. In 2025, these two processes unfolded at the same time: travel continued to grow numerically, but the political environment in which people travel became more tense, more expensive and more unpredictable.
Military spending rises despite a fall in US expenditure
In the new data, SIPRI particularly emphasizes that global military spending increased even though expenditure by the United States of America, the world’s largest military spender, fell by 7.5 percent in 2025 to 954 billion dollars. The institute links this fall to the fact that no new financial military aid to Ukraine was approved during the year, unlike in previous years. However, SIPRI researchers warn that the decline could be short-lived because US expenditure approved for 2026 has exceeded one trillion dollars, and budget proposals could increase it further.
Outside the United States, military spending rose by 9.2 percent, showing that the trend of global armament is broader than one country or one region. Europe, according to SIPRI, was the main driver of growth, with an increase of 14 percent to 864 billion dollars. The war in Ukraine remains a key security and budgetary factor, but the increase does not include only Russia and Ukraine. European NATO members are increasing expenditure because of efforts to strengthen their own capacities and because of political pressure to take on a larger share of the burden within the alliance. Germany, according to SIPRI’s data, increased military spending by 24 percent to 114 billion dollars, while Spain recorded an increase of 50 percent to 40.2 billion dollars.
In Asia and Oceania, military spending reached 681 billion dollars, 8.1 percent more than the year before, which is the fastest annual growth in that region since 2009. China, as the second-largest military spender in the world, increased expenditure by 7.4 percent to 336 billion dollars. Japan, Taiwan, Australia, the Philippines and other countries in the region are increasing spending in the context of long-standing regional tensions, the modernization of armed forces and questions of security guarantees. In the Middle East, total military spending was estimated at 218 billion dollars, almost unchanged compared with 2024, but still very high in a region where security risks are directly linked to perceptions of travel, air routes and investment decisions.
For tourism, trust is as important as capacity
The tourism industry reacts not only to actual wars and border closures but also to the perception of risk. Travelers, tour operators, airlines and investors often make decisions before a crisis directly spills over to a destination. Changed security advice, closure of airspace, higher insurance costs, higher fuel costs or a media impression of instability are enough for demand to move to another region. For this reason, a local conflict can have consequences far beyond the area where it is taking place, especially if it affects important air corridors, energy routes or popular Mediterranean and Middle Eastern destinations.
IATA recorded continued growth in international passenger traffic in its report for December 2025, but also differences among markets. International traffic grew by 7.7 percent year on year, while domestic markets showed uneven results; in the US, domestic demand fell for the second month in a row, with possible effects from weather disruptions and economic uncertainty. Such data do not mean that global air traffic is declining, but show how quickly passenger demand can be redirected when costs, consumer sentiment or operating conditions change.
In practice, this means that tourism recovery can be strong at the global level and at the same time fragile for individual cities, coastal regions, islands or countries that depend on a limited number of markets. Destinations that have a diverse guest structure, good transport connectivity and clear crisis protocols withstand shocks more easily. Those that depend on the season, one source market or a few airline routes are more exposed to sudden drops. Geopolitical risk is therefore increasingly becoming part of tourism management, and not only a topic of foreign policy.
Growth in security expenditure also changes public priorities
The growth of military spending has direct and indirect effects on tourism. Direct effects are visible in areas affected by conflicts, where arrivals, investments and jobs disappear, and infrastructure is redirected toward emergency and security needs. Indirect effects spread through public budgets. When states allocate more to the military, less room remains for transport projects, cultural infrastructure, heritage protection, staff education, digitalization of tourism services and the climate resilience of destinations. Such a relationship is not automatic and does not mean that every increase in the defense budget necessarily reduces investment in tourism, but it increases pressure on public finances and sharpens competition among priorities.
SIPRI particularly warns of the methodological importance of the concept of military spending: it is not only about buying weapons, but about total government expenditure on military forces and activities, including salaries, operating costs, equipment, military construction, research and development, and command and administrative structures. For this reason, the amount of 2.887 trillion dollars is not only an indicator of the arms market, but a measure of the breadth of the security apparatus that states maintain and expand. By comparison, tourism investments often depend on long-term political stability, private capital, available loans and a predictable regulatory framework.
In such an environment, the question increasingly arises whether tourism can remain only a passive observer of geopolitical trends. An industry that employs hundreds of millions of people has an interest in stability, open borders, functional international institutions and sustainable infrastructure. However, its political voice is often weaker than the voice of sectors linked to security, energy or the defense industry. If tourism wants to present itself as an important instrument of development and intercultural understanding, then it must show more clearly how much wars and militarization cost local economies, workers and public budgets.
Growth figures must not conceal regional fractures
The latest data do not support the simple claim that global tourism is generally collapsing. On the contrary, official estimates speak of a record number of international arrivals in 2025, record export revenues from tourism and continued growth in 2026 if external conditions do not worsen. But it is equally wrong to conclude from these figures that the industry is safe from a broader security shift. Tourism can grow and become more vulnerable at the same time. This is especially important for destinations located near crisis areas, dependent on long-haul flights, facing higher service prices or trying to attract investment at a time when capital is seeking a more stable environment.
UN Tourism estimates that international tourism could grow by three to four percent in 2026, but among the main challenges it lists economic factors, high travel costs and geopolitical risks. Roughly half of the experts surveyed in the UN Tourism panel identified these factors as the main obstacles for this year. This means that the tourism sector can no longer rely only on post-pandemic pent-up demand. It needs stable conditions, competitive prices, safe transport routes and traveler confidence that travel will not turn into a logistical or financial risk.
The comparison with military spending is therefore powerful because it reveals two opposite directions of the global economy. One direction invests in mobility, encounters, services and international exchange. The other direction invests in deterrence, control, defense systems and preparation for crises. States may claim that security is a precondition for development, but the growth of military spending does not automatically produce the kind of security that tourism needs. Tourism needs predictability: stable airspace, clear border-crossing rules, a low probability of sudden escalations and public systems that can respond to crises without closing entire markets.
Tourism between economic strength and political powerlessness
WTTC data on 366 million jobs linked to travel and tourism show that the sector has a weight that goes beyond holidays and recreation. In many economies, tourism is a source of income for small businesses, carriers, cultural institutions, agriculture, construction and local budgets. When travel decreases because of war or fear of instability, the effect does not remain confined to hotels. It affects food suppliers, guides, museums, taxi drivers, craftspeople, airports, seasonal workers and public revenues from taxes and fees.
That is why the question opened by the latest SIPRI and tourism data is not only how many people will travel in 2026, but in what kind of world they will travel. If military spending continues to increase and geopolitical crises are normalized as a permanent condition, tourism will have to operate in a more expensive and politically more sensitive environment. This does not mean that people will stop traveling, but it does mean that travel will be more selective, more expensive and more dependent on security assessments. Destinations that rely only on the return of demand, without investing in resilience, market diversification and crisis communication, could have a harder time withstanding the next wave of instability.
The latest global picture therefore allows neither a panicked nor a triumphalist conclusion. Tourism proved in 2025 that it can recover, but military spending of almost 2.9 trillion dollars shows that the world is simultaneously preparing ever more strongly for conflicts and prolonged crises. It is precisely in this gap that the greatest challenge for travel and tourism lies: the sector can grow in numbers, but its long-term development will depend on whether the international environment will once again produce more trust than fear.
Sources:- SIPRI – report “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025” on global military spending in 2025. (link)- SIPRI – press release “Global military spending rise continues as European and Asian expenditures surge” with regional data and statements by researchers (link)- UN Tourism – World Tourism Barometer, January 2026, on international tourist arrivals, revenues and outlook for 2026. (link)- WTTC – Economic Impact Research on the contribution of travel and tourism to global GDP and employment in 2025. (link)- IATA – Air Passenger Market Analysis, December 2025, on international and domestic passenger traffic (link)- eTurboNews – original text “Tourism Falters as Global Military Spending Surges” that opens the topic of the relationship between tourism, geopolitical instability and military spending (link)
Find accommodation nearby
Creation time: 1 hours ago