The Middle East accelerated tourism growth, but 2026 brings a bigger test for the regional travel industry
Tourism in the Middle East in 2025 grew faster than the global average, and the latest data from the World Travel & Tourism Council show that the region entered the year with a strong recovery, increased international spending and highly dynamic business travel. According to the WTTC Economic Impact Research, the travel and tourism sector in the region grew by 5.3 percent in 2025, while the global average was 4.1 percent. This confirmed the Middle East’s status as one of the fastest-growing tourism markets, but it also raised the question of how resilient that growth is to security and geopolitical disruptions that intensified in 2026.
At the center of that growth is Saudi Arabia, which according to the WTTC is the largest tourism economy in the region and accounts for almost half of the total tourism economy of the Middle East. Its role is not only the result of major investments in infrastructure, new destinations and international promotion, but also of a broader strategy of economic diversification in which tourism is increasingly used as a tool for creating jobs, attracting capital and strengthening global connectivity. Similar, although differently structured, growth is also being recorded by the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Jordan, showing that the recovery does not rely exclusively on one national project.
WTTC records growth above the global average
On April 27, 2026, the WTTC announced that the travel and tourism sector in the Middle East contributed 385.8 billion dollars to regional GDP in 2025 and supported 7.1 million jobs. Especially important is the figure on international visitor spending, which rose by 5.2 percent in the region, while global growth of the same indicator was 3.2 percent. This imbalance points to a stronger inflow of demand toward Middle Eastern destinations, but also to the expansion of transport connectivity through major air hubs in the Gulf.
Such a result should be viewed in the broader context of post-pandemic recovery. The WTTC report on global trends for 2025 states that the Middle East had already achieved the second-highest growth rate in 2024 compared with the pre-pandemic period, immediately behind the Caribbean. The sector’s total contribution to regional GDP then reached 341.9 billion dollars, which was 7 percent more than in 2023 and 16.1 percent above the 2019 level. This continuity of growth explains why the region is increasingly cited as an example of a tourism market that has moved from the recovery phase into a phase of strategic expansion.
But strong aggregate indicators do not mean that all markets are equally stable. In an earlier report, the WTTC also warned that countries directly affected by conflicts, such as Lebanon and Israel, lagged behind pre-pandemic levels. This shows the fundamental tension of Middle Eastern tourism: in the same region there are countries that are rapidly building luxury resorts, congress capacities and global air hubs, but also markets where security risks directly limit demand, investment and air traffic.
Saudi Arabia leads the regional momentum
The largest single driver of growth remains Saudi Arabia. The WTTC states that the country’s tourism sector in 2025 reached 178 billion dollars in contribution to GDP, or 46 percent of the total tourism economy of the Middle East. Growth in Saudi Arabia’s tourism GDP amounted to 7.4 percent, almost twice the global growth rate of the sector and about 40 percent above the regional average. At the same time, international visitor spending in Saudi Arabia rose by 8.2 percent, which also significantly outperformed the global average.
This result reflects several parallel processes. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has been investing heavily in new destinations, cultural and sporting events, congress offerings, hotel capacities and transport infrastructure. Tourism fits into a broader development agenda aimed at reducing the economy’s reliance on oil revenues and increasing the share of services in the national economy. In its projections for 2025, the WTTC had already pointed out that travel and tourism in Saudi Arabia could contribute more than 10 percent of GDP and support record employment in the sector.
The business segment stands out in particular. According to the WTTC, spending on business travel in Saudi Arabia increased by more than 55 percent in 2025. This is an important indicator because business tourism is not linked only to hotel overnight stays, but also to congresses, fairs, investment forums, business delegations, air traffic and the entire chain of high value-added services. When such a segment grows faster than leisure tourism, it often means that a destination is positioning itself as a regional center for capital, conferences and international business contacts.
UAE, Oman and Jordan confirm that growth is not isolated
Although Saudi Arabia carries the largest share of the regional momentum, WTTC data show that other markets also achieved important results. In 2025, the United Arab Emirates reached 68.5 billion dollars in contribution by the tourism sector to GDP, with 56.9 billion dollars in international visitor spending. The UAE thereby relies on an already established combination of global air connections, a luxury hotel sector, business events, urban entertainment and financial services, which is why Dubai and Abu Dhabi remain among the most visible tourism and transit points of the region.
Jordan, according to the WTTC, recorded tourism GDP growth of 5.5 percent, with international visitor spending of 8.5 billion dollars. Oman achieved the same tourism GDP growth rate, 5.5 percent, and 4 billion dollars in international spending. Unlike the distinctly urban and luxury-positioned Gulf markets, Oman is described in the WTTC global report as a more balanced destination, with a relatively more even distribution of international and domestic spending and a larger share of business travel than the global average.
Such diversity is important for the region’s long-term resilience. If tourism growth relies only on several large air hubs or several luxury destinations, disruptions in transport, security or consumer sentiment can have a faster and broader effect. But if cultural tourism, domestic travel, business events, natural destinations and regional routes grow at the same time, the industry gains more channels through which it can soften short-term shocks.
Business travel has become one of the main engines of growth
At the level of the entire Middle East, spending on business travel rose by 23 percent in 2025, which the WTTC ranks among the strongest segments of regional tourism growth. This figure is important because it comes after a period in which, globally, the question was often raised whether videoconferencing and hybrid work would permanently reduce the need for business travel. The Middle Eastern example shows the opposite trend in markets that are simultaneously investing in conference centers, major events and international investment platforms.
The growth of business travel also increases the importance of air connections. Major carriers and regional airports are not only tourism infrastructure, but also a key element of economic strategy. If a destination can connect Europe, Asia and Africa with a large number of flights, it gains an advantage in attracting corporate events, investors and short business stays. This is precisely why disruptions in airspace, rising fuel prices or changes in security recommendations can directly affect not only travelers’ holidays but also the broader business environment.
In its assessment, the WTTC emphasizes that continued investment in infrastructure, connectivity and destination development will be crucial for long-term growth. In this sense, tourism in the Middle East is no longer viewed only as a seasonal activity, but as one of the levers of economic transformation. Investments in hotels, airports, cultural institutions, sporting events and business events create a chain of activities that spills over into construction, transport, trade, hospitality and the labor market.
Geopolitical risk becomes a key variable for 2026
Despite a strong 2025, the outlook for 2026 is significantly more uncertain. Oxford Economics, through its specialized division Tourism Economics, estimates that due to the conflict linked to Iran, international arrivals to the Middle East in 2026 could fall by between 11 and 27 percent compared with the previous year. In a scenario of early easing of the conflict, lasting from one to three weeks, the loss would amount to around 23 million international visitors and 34 billion dollars in tourism spending compared with the earlier projection. In a longer-conflict scenario, the loss could reach around 38 million visitors and 56 billion dollars in spending.
These numbers do not cancel out the results from 2025, but they show how quickly the tourism picture can change when security risk affects transport corridors and the perception of stability. Oxford Economics states that airspaces in the region were significantly restricted and that more than 5,000 flights were canceled in the first two days of the conflict. Since Middle Eastern airports participate in a large share of international transit, the consequences do not stop at regional arrivals, but spill over into distant markets, airline schedules and travel prices.
In this context, the Gulf countries, which for years have built the image of safe, accessible and infrastructurally strong destinations, are precisely the most exposed. Their business model in tourism relies to a large extent on international air traffic, transit, high-spending visitors and major events. If travelers begin postponing bookings, shortening stays or choosing alternative destinations, the effect is quickly transmitted to hotels, airlines, cruise companies, agencies and organizers of business gatherings.
The first effects are already visible in the operations of major tourism companies
That geopolitical risk is not only an analytical assumption is also shown by the business decisions of major companies. The Guardian reported on April 22, 2026, that TUI, Europe’s largest tour operator, had cut its profit forecast after the war linked to Iran cost it around 40 million euros. The company cited the costs of repatriating almost 12,000 guests and staff members, including cruise passengers in Abu Dhabi and Doha, as well as disruptions to operations in Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt.
TUI also warned of increased traveler caution and a tendency to book closer to the departure date. Such behavior is typical of periods of security uncertainty: demand does not always disappear, but it becomes more sensitive to news, prices, cancellation options and risk assessments. For destinations and carriers, this makes it more difficult to plan capacity, revenue and prices, and for markets that rely on a long season and high occupancy it creates additional pressure.
Rising fuel prices and longer routes caused by bypassing airspaces further worsen the picture. When flights become more expensive or operationally more complex, airlines can reduce frequencies, cancel less profitable routes or pass the cost on to passengers. In a sector in which accessibility is often decisive for the decision to travel, such changes can have the same effect as a direct security warning.
Tourism remains a development opportunity, but growth depends on stability
WTTC data show that in 2025 the Middle East entered a phase of more mature tourism growth: international spending increased, business travel accelerated strongly, and countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman and Jordan expanded the sector’s economic impact. In the long term, the region has clear advantages: a strategic position between continents, financially strong investors, major airlines, ambitious state plans and an increasingly diverse offering from business events to cultural and natural destinations.
Still, 2026 will be a test of resilience. If security conditions stabilize, the region could continue using the investments and connectivity that enabled it to grow faster than the global average. If tensions continue, part of the growth could be delayed, and international arrivals, transit traffic and high-value travel would suffer the most. For the tourism industry of the Middle East, this means that the next period will depend not only on new hotels, events and marketing campaigns, but also on the region’s ability to restore traveler confidence and maintain the predictability of air connections.
Sources:- World Travel & Tourism Council – press release on tourism growth in the Middle East in 2025 and the role of Saudi Arabia (link)- World Travel & Tourism Council – global overview and projections for the travel and tourism sector in 2025 (link)- WTTC Economic Impact Research 2025: Global Trends – regional data for the Middle East, investment, employment and long-term projections (link)- Oxford Economics / Tourism Economics – assessment of the impact of the conflict linked to Iran on arrivals and tourism spending in the Middle East in 2026 (link)- The Guardian – report on the impact of the war linked to Iran on TUI, repatriations and the tourism company’s profit forecasts (link)
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