Guam in 2026 catches momentum: tourism returns, air bridges expand, and the island seeks a new role as a Pacific hub
Guam, a U.S. territory on the western edge of the Pacific, enters 2026 with significantly stronger confidence in the tourism sector than in previous years. After a long recovery from the pandemic collapse and subsequent air traffic disruptions, the island is recording growth in arrivals, restoring capacity from key source markets, and investing in programs intended to lengthen stays, increase spending, and reduce dependence on one or two markets. Although Guam has not yet approached the records from the period before 2020, the latest indicators suggest that the recovery curve is stabilizing, and 2026 is increasingly mentioned as the year in which a new, more sustainable development path could be "locked in."
The numbers that explain why there is talk of a turning point
The most concrete signal comes from official arrival statistics regularly published by the Guam Visitors Bureau (GVB). At the GVB Board of Directors meeting in December 2025, it was highlighted that Guam hosted 61,792 visitors in October 2025, representing a growth of 16.4% compared to October 2024. South Korea and Japan still hold the largest share: 32,538 travelers arrived from Korea in October 2025 (+16.6%), and 18,478 from Japan (+28.5%). The strong percentage jump of Taiwan is also particularly emphasized, which had 674 arrivals in the same month (+318.6%), while the Philippines recorded 1,385 arrivals (+4.5%). In the annual total up to October 2025, the picture is more mixed: the Korean market was lower compared to the previous year, while Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines grew, which GVB interprets as proof that the diversification of traveler sources is nonetheless yielding results, but also that the recovery remains sensitive to prices, exchange rates, and flight availability.
Broader historical context is also provided by the Economic Outlook for fiscal year 2026 published by the Guam Bureau of Statistics and Plans (BSP). In that document, it is stated that Guam recorded a total of 739,145 visitors in 2024 (January–December), which is an increase of 12.6% compared to 2023, but is still 55.7% below the level of 2019 when 1,666,665 visitors were recorded. Along with arrivals, the BSP cites the movement of hotel occupancy tax revenues: in 2024, 32,114,929 US dollars were collected, which is a growth of 26.6% compared to 2023, but also 28.5% less than in 2019. Such data, along with the growth in arrivals, point to a double story: the recovery is real, but the difference compared to the "old normal" is still large, so every investment decision must be based on realistic projections, rather than nostalgia for numbers from record years.
Airlift as a key lever: what United's move from February 2026 means
In island destinations, tourism is only as strong as the air capacities. Guam has a specific advantage in this sense: it serves as a hub for part of Micronesia and is simultaneously an entry point to US territory for travelers from Asia and the Pacific. United Airlines, which positions Guam as its only "non-hub" US hub outside the mainland US, announced a transformation of the fleet based in Guam: from February 2026, it is introducing the Boeing 737 MAX 8 as a replacement for older 737-800s, with an emphasis on modernizing the customer experience. According to United's announcement, the MAX 8 in the configuration for Guam will have up to 166 seats, including up to 16 seats in United First, USB ports at every seat, and a seatback entertainment system with accessible features; the plane also has the capability to adapt the first rows of economy class for medical transport with stretchers when necessary.
Equally important for the tourism industry itself is the description of the network: United states that its narrow-body fleet based in Guam serves 15 destinations, with about 12 flights a day, including the “Island Hopper” route to Honolulu with stopovers on several Pacific islands. United additionally highlights that it operates up to 42 flights per week to the three largest Japanese cities, including Tokyo (Narita and Haneda), Osaka, and Nagoya, while the MAX 8 is also set to take over flights to other points served from the Guam hub, such as Manila, Taipei, and Saipan. In practice, such investments mean a more stable flight schedule, greater predictability for travel agencies and hotels, and potentially better distribution of travelers throughout the year, especially if part of the capacity is directed toward off-season periods.
Less waiting, more flow: investments in terminal and check-in
Airlift is not just a question of the number of seats, but also of infrastructure capacity. In the same announcement, United cites investment in the check-in zone at Antonio B. Won Pat International Airport, including kiosks that are, according to their data, up to 55% faster than previous ones, along with a reorganization of space to reduce crowds. In a destination that relies on quick “resort” stays of three to four nights, the first impression at the airport often determines whether a guest will return, and the industry is increasingly investing in what is called “frictionless travel” in business jargon.
Japan and Korea remain the foundation, but in 2026 a "second pillar" is being built
GVB, in its internal analyses and public announcements, persistently emphasizes that Guam cannot allow a return to the old dependence on only one market. Nevertheless, Japan and Korea remain the foundation, and 2026 is treated as the year in which these two markets are attempted to be "upgraded" with new content, stronger partnerships, and more targeted campaigns.
In GVB's December announcement, the forecast of the Japanese travel company JTB for travel around the New Year holidays (December 20, 2025 – January 5, 2026) is cited among the indicators of potential for 2026, according to which a growth in overseas travel of 31.5% is expected, with Guam listed among the top destinations. GVB simultaneously describes trends in the Korean market, where the emphasis is shifting to personalized, experiential programs, nature, and cultural content, along with the growth of short trips and digital booking channels.
“One Guam Roadshow 2026”: launching the fiscal year and strengthening trade ties
That 2026 is not just about the "return of flights" is shown by the One Guam Roadshow 2026 program that GVB conducted in Japan in mid-January. According to the official announcement, the roadshow was held in Tokyo (January 19), Nagoya (January 20), and Osaka (January 21), with seminars for the tourism industry and the presentation of marketing and trade initiatives for fiscal year 2026. Campaigns and programs like GOGO! Guam Håfa Adai were in focus, including Guam Pay and Guam Bonus, as well as new programs for educational groups and support for charter flights. GVB also states in the announcement that a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed during the roadshow with JTB and the company T.P. Micronesia, with the aim of strengthening joint activities and developing new products in the Japanese market.
Partnerships that change the game: JTB, T.P. Micronesia and the “content before volume” strategy
The signed MOU is not just a protocol document: in JTB's announcement from January 20, 2026, the cooperation is defined as a “partnership for tourism content development” with the goal of demand recovery and sustainable growth, primarily in Japan, but also more broadly. JTB, TPM, and GVB state that they will jointly formulate and implement a new destination development strategy, with elements of joint promotion, co-creation of tourism experiences, encouraging sustainable tourism, data exchange, and human resources development. In the same document, it is reminded that in 2019 Guam had about 1.65 million visitors, while in 2024 it remained at approximately 730 thousand, and that the market structure has changed: Japan's share has fallen compared to earlier peaks, which is one of the reasons why the emphasis is shifting to strengthening “value per guest” rather than just a bare increase in the number of arrivals.
Also interesting is the operational goal cited by JTB: the partners want the number of travelers sent from Japan to Guam in fiscal year 2026 (October 2025 – September 2026) to reach 150% of the fiscal year 2025 level. This is an ambitious goal, but also an indicator that the industry is trying to move from short-term “discounts for filling planes” toward more structured product development, including themed programs for families, students, and wellness segments.
What the official recovery projection says: the goal of 500,000 arrivals in 2026
The BSP Economic Outlook also provides an interesting insight into the direction in which the recovery could move. In the part conveying elements of GVB's short-term recovery plan, it cites an estimate that, without interventions, Guam could stagnate at a level of around 200,000 arrivals in 2025, while “aggressive marketing and investments” aim for growth to around 290,000 in 2025 and 500,000 arrivals in 2026, with the idea of returning to the 2019 level by 2027 or 2028. It is important to notice that these are goals and scenarios, not “guaranteed” numbers, but the fact that success thresholds and timeframes are openly communicated in official documents points to a more serious approach to managing expectations.
Infrastructure and public policies: tourism returns to the center of economic planning
Guam is a small system with a high dependence on external shocks: changes in fuel prices, the yen or won exchange rate, geopolitical tensions in the region, or health recommendations can change the course of a season in a few weeks. That is precisely why institutions emphasize the combination of tourism, federal spending, and construction investment as the three main “inflow streams” of money into the island economy. In the summary of the economic outlook for fiscal year 2026, BSP expects the continuation of economic expansion in 2025 and 2026, with the growth of tourism and the construction sector and an increase in the number of US Department of Defense personnel, which could spread growth to sectors beyond construction itself.
Investments in the airport go in the same direction. Although all projects are not directly “touristic,” the availability and security of infrastructure are key to retaining airlines and convincing tour operators to keep Guam in their programs. The Guam International Airport Authority (GIAA) announced that in February 2024 it received a 31.1 million dollar competitive FAA grant for the rehabilitation of the terminal aircraft apron and taxiways, a project that should improve the safety and operability of aircraft parking and movement zones. In another announcement, GIAA states that the FAA inspected 123 areas in airport safety and security inspections and that the airport received a “perfect score” for the third year in a row, which is an important signal of regulatory stability, especially at a time when destinations are competing for every additional line and every seasonal capacity.
Culture as a differentiator: why “Håfa Adai” returns to the center of the brand
In competition with Pacific and Asian “sun & sea” destinations, Guam cannot rely only on beaches and hotels. GVB is openly building an identity through the local CHamoru culture and values of hospitality, which is also seen in the campaigns mentioned in the One Guam Roadshow program. The institution itself emphasizes on its pages the importance of preserving diacritics in the modern Chamorro language and its role in preserving language and culture, with the message that culture is part of the destination product, and not just decor.
In practice, the cultural emphasis also has an economic dimension. If content expands to festivals, sports, events, and themed programs, the chance increases that a guest stays longer, spends more, and returns. GVB's roadshow announcement mentions promotions of the Ko’Ko’ Road Race and the Japan Festival on Guam, along with collaborations with media and celebrities in Japan, showing that the destination is trying to position itself through experiences, and not just through “packages.”
Sustainability as a condition, not as a slogan
For Guam, sustainability is more than PR: it is about the balance between tourism revenues, environmental pressure, and the quality of life of the local population. The MOU signed by JTB, TPM, and GVB explicitly includes encouraging sustainable tourism, exchanging information on sustainable development, and building mechanisms for returning economic and cultural value to the local community. Such a framework suggests that 2026 is intended to be used for a “reset” of the destination, where growth is not measured only by arrivals but also by effects on the community.
In the broader planning framework, BSP announced in January 2026 that it had put the draft Guåhan 2050 Sustainability Plan out for public discussion, thereby formally putting long-term sustainability on the public policy agenda. Although that plan is not exclusively a tourism document, tourism in island economies is often one of the sectors through which the consequences of poor management of space, water, waste, and energy are seen most quickly.
What follows: risks and opportunities in the year in which a “new normal” is expected
Despite positive trends, 2026 carries several known risks. A weaker yen can slow Japanese demand or redirect travelers toward cheaper alternatives; changes in Korean household budgets and competition from other destinations can affect the dynamics of short trips; and any change in aircraft or crew availability in the Asia-Pacific system can spill over to Guam, which depends on “airlift.” On the other hand, it is precisely the combination of fleet modernization, strengthening promotion through partnerships, infrastructure investment, and the shift toward content and sustainability that provides an argument that Guam entered 2026 with a clearer plan than in earlier recovery phases.
If the goals mentioned by official documents and partners prove achievable, Guam could solidify its status as the American Pacific “gateway” connecting Asian markets, Micronesian islands, and the US, with a tourism offering that relies less and less on volume and more and more on experience, quality, and return to the community.
Sources:- Guam Visitors Bureau (GVB) – announcement about the Board meeting and arrival data for October 2025 ( link )
- Guam Visitors Bureau (GVB) – official page with arrival statistics and archive of monthly reports ( link )
- Bureau of Statistics and Plans, Government of Guam – Economic Outlook for Guam, Fiscal Year 2026 (visits 2019–2024, tax revenues and recovery goals) ( link )
- United Airlines – announcement about introducing Boeing 737 MAX 8 on Guam and investments in customer experience ( link )
- Guam International Airport Authority – 31.1 million USD FAA grant for apron and taxiway rehabilitation ( link )
- Guam International Airport Authority – announcement about the FAA inspection and “perfect” safety score ( link )
- JTB Group – announcement about the MOU with GVB and T.P. Micronesia and goals of sustainable growth and content development ( link )
- Guam Visitors Bureau (GVB) – announcement about the One Guam Roadshow 2026 and programs presented for Japan ( link )
- Bureau of Statistics and Plans, Government of Guam – announcement about the public draft of Guåhan 2050 Sustainability Plan ( link )
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