Thailand back in focus for Chinese travelers: the return of mass tourism and a new race in Southeast Asia
Movements in the Asian tourism market in the week after the start of the Lunar New Year have once again turned attention to Thailand as one of the key destinations for Chinese travelers. This year’s celebration, which began on 17 February 2026, is traditionally one of the biggest seasonal travel waves in the region, and early projections and strategic documents from tourism institutions indicate that Bangkok and other Thai hubs are counting on a stronger return of “volume” after a period of fluctuations in arrivals from China. For readers planning a trip, it is already clear that demand will rise in popular zones, from city districts to coastal destinations, so it makes sense to also check
accommodation in Thailand for a visit during February and March.
At the same time, competition in Southeast Asia is tightening as Vietnam positions itself ever more convincingly as a regional alternative. Data for 2025 and announcements for 2026 suggest that Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City no longer play a secondary role in the regional game, but are targeting a share of travel spending that previously was “assumed” for Thailand. Additional momentum for this reshuffling comes from Japan, where part of Chinese demand is decreasing, among other things due to political tensions and changes in risk perception, which directly affects the choice of destination for mass holidays.
Lunar New Year 2026: seasonal peak and a capacity test
The Lunar New Year is generally a mix of family travel and vacations, with a pronounced increase in short-haul international flights to destinations that offer simple logistics, a diverse offering, and good value for money. In this context, Thailand has for years had a strong “brand” among Chinese travelers: flight connectivity, developed hotel infrastructure, a wide range of budgets and activities, and experience in handling large waves of guests.
But the last two years have shown that Thailand cannot rely on inertia alone. Official strategies for 2026 speak more openly about the need to “rebuild trust” while simultaneously raising value per trip. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) in its 2026 targets highlights an ambition of 36.7 million foreign visitors and strong revenue growth, with a target of at least 6.7 million Chinese guests, which is an important signal to the market that the return of Chinese volume is considered a key driver of the year. In practice, such an announcement means greater pressure on capacity in the most in-demand periods, so visitors who want flexibility are advised to take an early look at
accommodation offers in Bangkok and around key transport hubs, as well as options in areas with good transport connectivity.
Thailand’s numerical framework: recovery with an emphasis on China
Although Thailand remains among the most tourism-dynamic countries in the world, trends in 2025 pointed to a clear difference between the Chinese and non-Chinese markets. Analytical overviews based on official aggregated data state that the total number of international arrivals to Thailand in 2025 reached about 32.97 million, with a decline compared to the previous year, while the segment of Chinese arrivals was noticeably weaker than the average. That is precisely why the 2026 strategy emphasizes the “return of China”, but with a more cautious approach: alongside classic campaigns, TAT also mentions certification programs and measures to strengthen traveler confidence, as well as thematic positioning of the offer through niche products and “night tourism”.
In other words, Thailand wants two things at the same time that are sometimes difficult to align: to bring back mass volume, but to “redirect” it toward higher spending, longer stays, and content that reduces seasonal spikes. For readers, this means that in some destinations crowds will likely increase in classic zones, while more “dispersed” localities will be pushed as alternatives. If you are planning a trip in a period when waves spill over from big cities toward the coast, it is practical to secure in advance
accommodation near the venues and main tourist zones, especially in the weeks after 17 February 2026, when part of the travel continues even after the holiday peak itself.
Vietnam as a serious challenger: 2025 records and 2026 ambitions
The biggest change in regional competition comes from Vietnam, where official data point to a record year in 2025 with approximately 21.2 million international visitors. Vietnamese institutions openly emphasize that growth was strongly driven by major Asian markets and that China is among the key generators, with a high percentage increase compared to 2024. In addition, a target of 25 million international visitors in 2026 is publicly communicated, an ambition that places Vietnam directly in the same league as regional “big players”, and not only in the role of a fast-growing alternative.
Why is this important in the story of Thailand’s return of mass tourism? Because part of Chinese travelers, especially those more sensitive to price and logistics, now has more convincing options within the same flight time window and a similar budget. Vietnam additionally benefits from the narrative of a “newer” or “different” experience compared with destinations that have for years been the standard choice. In such an environment, Thailand can no longer count on the mass segment returning automatically, but must actively prove value and safety, while Vietnam uses the momentum of a record year.
Japan and Chinese demand: a drop that changes regional flows
In parallel with Southeast Asia’s growth, the Japanese market records a specific paradox: total foreign arrivals remain very high, but the Chinese segment shows clear signs of weakening. Available data for the end of 2025 say that the number of visitors from China in December 2025 was about 330 thousand, with a strong year-on-year decline. In public analyses and media reports, one of the causes mentioned is political tensions and a change in atmosphere after statements by Japan’s political leadership about Taiwan in November 2025, after which recommendations by the Chinese authorities followed that negatively affected travel decisions and associated air capacity.
For the regional market, the consequence is simple: part of Chinese demand that would, under normal circumstances, go to Japan is being redirected to destinations perceived as “less sensitive” and logistically simpler. That does not automatically mean all of that volume flows into Thailand, but Thailand is a natural candidate because of the breadth of its offer and Chinese travelers’ habits. In that logic, Vietnam also benefits, especially on shorter itineraries and “city break” trips.
What is changing in the behavior of Chinese travelers
In recent years, China’s outbound market has been going through a phase in which the decision is increasingly based on a combination of price, convenience, perceived safety, and planning speed. A “mass holiday” is no longer only a question of a destination’s popularity, but also of the stability of travel conditions: flight availability, ease of entry, the level of informational clarity, and the possibility to change plans without major costs.
That is why Thailand’s 2026 plans, which publicly count on the return of the Chinese market, are not just a marketing message but also a signal that investment will go into campaigns and measures that make the traveler’s decision easier. As demand rises in waves, the accommodation picture also changes quickly: prices and availability in popular periods become more sensitive to sudden jumps. If you are planning your trip in a period when large waves spill over from holiday days into extended vacations, it is useful to check in advance
accommodation for visitors to Thailand in the season of increased interest.
Consequences for the region: pressure on prices, capacity, and promotion
For Southeast Asia, 2026 could be a year in which three things happen simultaneously: Thailand brings back volume and tries to “repackage” it into higher spending, Vietnam continues growth from a record base, and Japan tries to stabilize the market amid fluctuations in the Chinese segment. Such a combination almost always raises the stakes in promotion, airline subsidies, charter deals, and intensified destination placement through digital channels.
In practice, this also means stronger pressure on infrastructure in cities and on the coast, but also on “secondary” destinations that are promoted as relief from crowds. Thailand is the most experienced in this, but the very experience of mass tourism also means greater sensitivity to issues of sustainability, regulation, and local reactions. Vietnam, on the other hand, bases part of its growth on new investments and accelerating supply, but the question remains how quickly it can scale service infrastructure without losing quality.
What this means for travelers from Europe and beyond
Although the focus of this story is on Chinese travelers, their seasonal waves affect everyone else. Europe, including Croatia, in practice feels changes through flight prices, hotel availability, and the level of crowding in key zones. If Thailand’s China-related targets are achieved in 2026, it is expected that some periods will become more expensive and “tighter” for last-minute decisions, especially in Bangkok and tourist hotspots. That is why it is reasonable to think about earlier booking and more flexible locations, with a check of
accommodation offers in Thailand depending on the travel plan.
On the other hand, Vietnam’s strengthening as an alternative can open space for travelers who want to avoid the densest routes and look for a different itinerary. But even there, the record 2025 is a good indicator that growing demand can quickly “eat up” affordable capacity in the most sought-after cities.
The regional race in 2026: Thailand returns, Vietnam accelerates, Japan seeks stability
Overall, the picture at the beginning of 2026 clearly shows that Thailand is returning to the center of regional tourism competition precisely in the period when the Lunar New Year is used as a test of demand and capacity. At the same time, Vietnam enters 2026 from a record year with the ambition of additional growth and strengthening its share of the Chinese market, while Japan, despite very high total numbers, enters 2026 with signals of weakening Chinese arrivals and projections of more cautious growth.
For Thailand, this means that the “return of mass tourism” is not only the return of numbers, but also the return of the fight for attention, trust, and the distribution of travel spending. In that fight, 2026 will not be decided only by beaches, food, or nightlife, but also by the system’s capacity to manage large waves without losing safety and the quality of the experience, which is ultimately crucial also for travelers coming from outside Asia.
Sources:- Tourism Authority of Thailand (official Thailand portal) – targets for 2026, including 36.7 million foreign visitors and a target of at least 6.7 million Chinese guests (link)
- Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (vietnamtourism.gov.vn) – official overview of the record 2025 and a target of 25 million international visitors in 2026 (link)
- Vietnam News Agency (vietnam.vnanet.vn) – report on record arrivals in 2025 and official indicators for the end of the year (link)
- JTB Tourism Research & Consulting (tourism.jp) – statistics database of visits to Japan, including a breakdown of December 2025 by countries and total figures for 2025 (link)
- ChinaTravelNews – overview of the JTB forecast for 2026 (41.4 million visitors) and the context of uncertainty of the Chinese market (link)
- Xinhua / JNTO data – information on the drop in Chinese visitors to Japan in December 2025 to about 330,400 (link)
- The Straits Times – report on Vietnam’s record 2025 and the impact of Chinese demand on regional flows (link)
- China Highlights – Lunar New Year 2026 calendar (start 17 February 2026, festival ends in early March) (link)
Find accommodation nearby
Creation time: 3 hours ago