As North America prepares for the first expanded World Cup with 48 national teams, behind the story of record fan interest lies a much more complex picture of travel and accommodation. Although most FIFA World Cup 2026 matches will be played in the United States, booking trends, visa policies, and hotel prices suggest that a significant portion of the economic "boom" could end up in Canada and Mexico, instead of in the US host cities.

An analysis of international arrivals, new visa fees, and data from specialized hospitality companies shows a paradox: global interest in the tournament is extremely high, but rising prices, administrative hurdles, and a slow pace of bookings are putting the US hotel sector in a risky position. While hotels in the US are already setting high prices for the World Cup period, actual occupancy for match days is still surprisingly low.

Record-breaking World Cup, but not a record influx of guests to the US

FIFA World Cup 2026 will be the first tournament in history with 48 teams and 104 matches, distributed across 16 host cities in the US, Canada, and Mexico. The United States will host the majority of the duels, including the final in the New York/New Jersey area, along with other major centers like Los Angeles, Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, and Miami. This positions the US as the central destination for most fans planning a trip to North America for the World Cup.

Despite this, projections for international arrivals to the US for 2025 do not follow fan enthusiasm. According to estimates by the U.S. Travel Association, the number of international visitors is expected to fall from approximately 72.4 million in 2024 to about 67.9 million in 2025, representing a drop of 6.3 percent. At the same time, spending by foreign guests is estimated at around 173 billion US dollars, but without the serious growth acceleration that would be expected ahead of a mega-event like the World Cup.

For the US hospitality sector, this means that the 2026 World Cup is not happening in a vacuum, but in the context of the first projected year of decline in international arrivals following the pandemic period. That drop, if it materializes, further increases the risk that hotels, despite high prices, will fail to reach occupancy levels that would justify expectations and investments.

OysterLink Analysis: hotel prices rising faster than demand

A more detailed insight into market behavior is provided by the analysis of the platform OysterLink, which compared price and demand trends in host cities. According to this data, average hotel accommodation prices in US host cities have already jumped by about 55 percent compared to the past year, and certain cities – like New York – are recording average daily rates (ADR) of several hundred dollars per night.

New York stands out as the market with the highest average prices, while cities like Houston, Dallas, or Atlanta also record significant ADR growth. However, the key problem is not just the price level, but the current occupancy: in many US host cities, nine months before the start of the tournament, bookings for match days are still hovering in single-digit percentages.

In other words, hotels have already "inflated" prices to a level that assumes a strong rush of fans, but that rush has not yet materialized. Analysts warn that a large portion of fans are cautious and are waiting for the final confirmation of the match schedule and the outcome of ticket lottery phases before they begin confirming accommodation.

Canada and Mexico recording faster demand growth

While US host cities are focused on high prices and a relatively slow pace of bookings, Canada and Mexico are already showing significantly stronger demand growth. Data from hospitality companies and independent research suggest that average daily rates in Canadian and Mexican host cities have risen by more than 90 and more than 110 percent respectively compared to the reference period.

This price growth is also accompanied by booking dynamics: Canadian cities like Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, as well as Mexican destinations like Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, are recording stronger early interest from fans. In some cases, hotels are already applying a minimum number of nights, so some properties do not allow short "fan" stays but insist on three-day or four-day packages.

Such minimum stay policies, which are particularly visible in Vancouver, further limit the available supply for short visits, but at the same time ensure high revenue per reservation. Canadian and Mexican hotels, therefore, combine strong price growth with concrete bookings – while US markets, despite already high prices, are still waiting for a real wave of confirmed arrivals.

New visa costs and administrative hurdles

One of the key reasons why some fans might bypass the US and choose Canada or Mexico are visa barriers. The United States has for years maintained a policy of strict border control and extensive security checks, and recently a new "Visa Integrity Fee" was introduced – an additional fee of 250 US dollars for most non-immigrant visas for citizens of countries not in the Visa Waiver Program.

This fee comes into effect on October 1, 2025, and applies to tourists, business travelers, students, and temporary workers from a range of countries, including large markets like India, Brazil, or China. Citizens of countries participating in the Visa Waiver Program – among them Croatia, most European Union members, the United Kingdom, Japan, and others – can still travel to the US for up to 90 days with electronic authorization (ESTA), without paying the new visa fee.

However, for millions of potential fans from countries not in the visa-waiver regime, the total cost of a visa – including the standard fee and the new 250-dollar surcharge – becomes a significant factor in the decision to travel. Additionally, in numerous consulates, there are still long waiting times for appointments, which complicates travel planning and increases the likelihood that fans will rather choose Canada or Mexico, which offer simpler and cheaper visa or electronic entry regimes.

Weaker growth of international arrivals in the US ahead of the tournament

New visa costs fit into a broader picture of slowing international travel to the United States. The U.S. Travel Association and other analytical houses are already warning that 2025 will likely be the first year after the pandemic in which the number of foreign tourist arrivals decreases. Projections speak of a drop from 72.4 to 67.9 million visitors, while the total volume of international travel will remain below the 2019 level.

At the same time, domestic travel by Americans continues to grow, but more slowly than in previous years, and a strong US dollar makes the US more expensive as a destination for many foreign guests. Combined with high airfare and accommodation prices and additional visa costs, the US is becoming a more expensive and administratively demanding destination than Canada or Mexico.

For fans planning a "World Cup" road trip across North America, this gap in entry conditions means that some of them will rather choose a flight to a Canadian or Mexican city, spend the majority of their stay there, and possibly enter the US only briefly, if at all. thereby diverting part of the spending from US host cities to neighboring markets.

Ticket sales dynamics and the "booking curve" for hotels

Accommodation booking dynamics are also strongly influenced by the schedule of ticket sales phases for the FIFA World Cup 2026. After the initial presale phases, the second phase – the so-called Early Ticket Draw – is envisaged as a lottery phase in which fans register interest for specific matches or packages. During this period, from October 27 to 31, 2025, fans register on the official platform to participate in the ticket draw.

After that follows a key moment for hotels: the announcement of the final match schedule and the official draw, scheduled for early December 2025. Only when fans find out in which cities their national teams will play the group stage and potential knock-out matches, will the majority make a firm decision on where and when to book accommodation.

Analysts in the hospitality sector therefore expect a sudden jump in bookings ("booking surge") in the weeks following the draw. Until then, many fans are calculating: instead of immediately confirming an expensive hotel in a US city, they prefer to wait to see if their national team will play more matches in Canada, Mexico, or the US, and whether they will be able to combine multiple cities within an acceptable budget for flights and accommodation.

For hotel chains and independent hotels, this means they are currently looking at a "quiet" period in which prices are already high, but occupancy levels do not yet reflect the tournament's potential. The risk is clear: if they keep prices too high and stay rules too strict for too long, they could miss the opportunity to fill capacities at the moment of strongest demand.

Canadian and Mexican hotels using the advantage of more flexible rules

Canada and Mexico in this story are not just co-organizers, but also direct competitors to the US hospitality sector. Their host cities, although having a smaller number of matches than the US, profit from a combination of lower travel costs, more favorable visa regimes, and a growing reputation as attractive tourist destinations.

The Canadian eTA (Electronic Travel Authorization) system and the Mexican visa regime for numerous countries are simpler and often cheaper than the US visa. For fans who want to combine a football experience with a vacation, cities like Vancouver, Toronto, Mexico City, or Monterrey offer plenty of options – from urban tourism to beaches and cultural routes.

Additionally, hotel operators in these countries generally use promotional packages more actively, combining accommodation with additional content like local tours, transport to the stadium, or themed fan events. While US hotels largely count on the "inertia" of demand due to the prestige of the tournament itself, their Canadian and Mexican competitors are fighting more aggressively for every guest.

Challenge for US hotels: between high prices and empty rooms

For US hotels, the biggest challenge is finding a balance between the desire for maximum revenue per room and the reality of slowed international demand. Excessively high prices and rigid conditions (such as mandatory minimum stays or non-refundable rates) can maximize revenue per booking in the short term, but lead to a large number of unsold rooms in the long term.

Analysts therefore suggest several concrete strategies:

• Dynamic pricing – instead of rigidly "locking" a high price, hotels should carefully monitor the rhythm of ticket sales and bookings and adjust rates in real time. This means readiness for downward corrections too, if demand for certain dates lags behind.


• More flexible stay rules – reducing the minimum number of nights or introducing semi-flexible rates (partially refundable) can attract fans planning shorter stays or wanting to remain open to plan changes, depending on their national team's progress.


• Market segmentation – relying exclusively on international fans can be risky in a year of falling global arrivals. That is why many experts recommend targeted advertising towards domestic travelers from the US and regional guests from Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom – markets that traditionally make up the core of inbound demand to the US.


• Package offers – linking accommodation with transport, local tours, or fan zones helps hotels stand out in a market where almost everyone will highlight high prices, but few will offer added value.

Applying these strategies requires quality market data and quick reaction. That is precisely why analyses like those published by specialized platforms for hotel performance and RevPAR become crucial for decision-making – especially in the period between the end of ticket sales phases and the actual start of the tournament.

The role of domestic and regional guests in filling capacities

Given the projections of weaker growth in international arrivals, it is increasingly likely that US hotels will have to rely to a greater extent on domestic and regional guests. Americans, despite inflation and rising living costs, continue to travel within the country in large numbers, and the World Cup offers a strong motive for shorter sports city-break arrangements.

Guests from Canada and Mexico, given the proximity of the border and often more favorable transport options, will also play an important role in filling rooms in cities such as Seattle, Los Angeles, Houston, or Dallas. For many fans, the most logical scenario will be a combination of several cities in the same trip – for example, a flight to Vancouver or Toronto, a few days' stay in Canada, then a short jump to a US host city and a possible return via Mexico.

In such a scenario, US hotels cannot count only on the "prestige effect" of the tournament itself. They must actively communicate with potential guests, adapt their offer, and clearly highlight the advantages of staying in their city compared to the competition in neighboring countries.

Will the 2026 World Cup be a missed opportunity for US hospitality?

Data available at the end of 2025 suggest that the 2026 World Cup is simultaneously a huge opportunity and a potentially missed "jackpot" for the US hotel sector. On one hand, it is the largest football tournament in history, with millions of fans who will follow their national teams live or via screens, and tens of billions of dollars in potential spending on travel, accommodation, hospitality, and entertainment across North America.

On the other hand, the combination of weaker growth in international arrivals, high prices, new visa fees, and strong competition from Canada and Mexico creates significant challenges. If US hotels continue to insist on high prices and restrictions without enough flexibility, there is a real possibility that some fans will give up on staying in the US or at least shorten their stay to just one or two nights, with the rest of their vacation in neighboring countries.

The coming months – from the end of the Early Ticket Draw phase in late October 2025 to the announcement of the final match schedule in early December – are crucial for the formation of the final "booking curve". In that period, hotels will have to carefully weigh whether to keep high prices and risk unsold capacities, or through smart adjustment of rates and conditions try to attract the largest possible number of fans, regardless of whether they come from afar or from a neighboring city.

For now, only one thing is clear: the 2026 World Cup will not automatically guarantee record results in all host markets. The winners will be those cities and hotels that recognize the change in travel patterns in time, adapt to new visa rules and economic conditions, and offer fans a combination of acceptable price, flexibility, and an experience that goes beyond the match itself.