Uganda and the “mega airport” Nyakyisharara: a vision of a global hub or an expensive bet on aviation?
In recent months, Uganda has opened a new debate about the direction of air transport and tourism development: a plan to turn the existing Nyakyisharara airfield in the western part of the country, in the Mbarara area, into a large international airport that, according to its proponents, could become a transit hub between Latin America and Asia. The project gained political tailwinds after presidential support and instructions to state institutions to consider and support the initiative, yet at the same time a question is being raised within the profession and part of the public – is this a strategically thought-out investment or an infrastructure risk with uncertain traffic and financial outcomes.
Presidential support and the consortium behind the project
According to reports by Ugandan media, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni held a meeting in September 2025 at State House in Entebbe with representatives of the consortium proposing the construction and development of an international airport in Nyakyisharara, in Mbarara District. The project was presented to the president by Base 7 Aviation International Academy and their consultants from the company Hamster Business Solutions, with the announcement that it would be implemented through a
Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model, i.e., “build–operate–transfer” – the private partner builds and operates the infrastructure for a certain period, and then transfers it to the state.
In publicly available statements about the project, three key business actors with different roles are mentioned: Hunan Construction and Investment Engineering Company as the contractor, China Southwest Architectural Design and Research Institute as the lead for preparing the study and design, and Blackrock Uwekeza as the entity that would finance the project and operate the airport under the BOT arrangement. The president, according to the same reports, requested that the consortium coordinate with the state technical team to finalize the details, with an emphasis on environmental preservation during development.
What is actually being proposed: from a regional airstrip to a “global” hub
At the center of the proposal is the transformation of the existing, predominantly rural airstrip into infrastructure that could accommodate a wide range of international operations – from regional flights to potentially very long intercontinental routes. Part of the promotional narrative that appeared publicly starts from the thesis that Uganda – due to its geographic position in East Africa – could become a suitable stop on routes between certain points in Latin America and China, and connections to Indonesia and Australia are also mentioned.
In international aviation, however, the very idea of a “midpoint” is not sufficient to explain why an airline would decide to stop at a particular airport. Commercial decisions are most often based on a combination of passenger demand, profitability, cargo logistics, operating costs, and existing transfer networks. Precisely for this reason, some analysts warn that plans should rely on detailed traffic and revenue studies, rather than primarily on geopolitical or symbolic arguments.
Uganda is already expanding air infrastructure: Entebbe is growing, Kabalega is nearing completion
The debate over Nyakyisharara is further intensifying because it is happening at a moment when Uganda is already investing in several major air projects.
Entebbe International Airport, the country’s main airport, is recording traffic growth and entering a new phase of expansion. The Uganda Civil Aviation Authority (UCAA) states that Entebbe served 2,243,104 international passengers in 2024, while in the period from January to September 2025, 1,822,849 international passengers were recorded. At the same time, UCAA states that the second phase of expansion is underway with an investment of US$125 million, including the construction of a second passenger terminal and the modernization of existing capacities.
In parallel, in western Uganda,
Kabalega International Airport near Hoima is being completed, infrastructure often linked to the future logistics needs of the oil sector, but also to possible access to tourist attractions in the western part of the country. In February 2026, several sources tracking Uganda’s aviation sector reported that the project is in the final works phase, with progress estimates around 97% after an inspection by UCAA leadership and management at the construction site.
Such a context raises a key question: can a relatively small market – compared with the largest African hubs – sustainably “feed” multiple international airports with the ambition to attract scheduled routes, cargo operations, and transit traffic, without traffic being diluted and the economic viability of each individual project being reduced.
The economics of aviation versus political strategy
One of the central dilemmas highlighted by critics is the technological and market change in air transport: modern wide-body aircraft are designed for very long non-stop flights, which reduces the need for “refuelling hubs” that were important in earlier periods. This reduces the likelihood that major airlines will choose to stop at a location that lacks a strong natural inflow of passengers or cargo.
In an analysis that prompted broader international debate, the view of some regional consultants is also cited that airlines shape routes according to profitability, not political vision. Such assessments do not mean the project necessarily makes no sense, but they indicate that decisive factors will be real indicators: demand estimates, the planned business model, operating costs, the relationship to existing airports, and the ability to attract carriers in a competitive regional environment.
Tourism as an argument: the potential of western Uganda and the limits of an “air shortcut”
Airport advocates often start from the tourism potential of western Uganda: national parks, crater lake areas, safari offerings, and natural resources that attract travelers. The idea is that direct international flights to the region would reduce arrival time and increase tourist spending in local communities, instead of having all flows concentrated through Entebbe.
But in tourism, infrastructure rarely works as a “switch” that automatically creates demand. Tourism operators and planners in several countries have warned that airports succeed when they are built where demand already exists or when the entire chain is invested in parallel: road and rail connectivity, accommodation capacity, nature protection, security, marketing, and a stable air offering. If large funds are tied to an airport while basic prerequisites for sustainable tourism are neglected, the gain may be absent or significantly smaller than expected.
The role of foreign investors and the BOT model: opportunity and hidden risks
Public statements emphasize that the project would be privately financed and that investors would secure a return by operating the airport and accompanying facilities. In practice, such a model often includes revenues from multiple sources: landing and passenger service fees, cargo operations, concessions for shops and hospitality, logistics zones, and real estate and hotel development in the airport zone.
At the same time, BOT contracts can carry risks for the state if traffic projections prove overly optimistic. In that case, the public sector, directly or indirectly, may come under pressure to provide guarantees, subsidies, or regulatory concessions to keep the project afloat. Therefore, some experts emphasize the need for the government and competent institutions to clearly determine: who bears demand risk, how public interests are protected, what happens if traffic and revenues do not reach the plan, and what the investors’ obligations are regarding safety standards, maintenance, and transfer of infrastructure.
Environment and local communities: the EIA as a credibility test
Major infrastructure projects as a rule go through an
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) – an assessment of environmental impacts. In the case of Nyakyisharara, the EIA issue is particularly important because it concerns an area that combines agriculture, local settlements, and sensitive ecosystems of the wider region. According to statements from analytical reviews of the project, the development of extensive areas is being considered, including accompanying facilities such as hotel zones, which would increase the need for land, roads, water, and energy systems.
Experiences from other African countries show that the biggest risks in the preparation phase are often linked to land acquisition, compensation, and relocations, as well as contract transparency. If the process is conducted without clear rules and publicly available data, long-lasting disputes arise that can slow the project, increase costs, and undermine the trust of the local population. Therefore, the way the EIA will be conducted, consultations with the local community, and the public release of key documents are among the indicators of whether the project will enter the implementation phase with minimal social resistance.
Institutional pressure and top-down “momentum”: who makes the final decision
Presidential support and public highlighting of the project accelerate political “momentum”, but at the same time the question arises of room for independent technical assessment. In systems where the executive branch has strong influence, major infrastructure investments sometimes advance faster than professional checks. In this case, the very fact that the involvement of multiple ministries and technical teams is mentioned suggests that key documents – such as the feasibility study, the financial model, traffic estimates, and the EIA – should become the basis of the decision.
For Ugandan politics and the economy, Nyakyisharara is also a symbolic issue: the west of the country has long sought stronger infrastructure connectivity, and Mbarara is positioning itself as a regional center. But long-term success does not depend on symbolism, but on the ability of the airport to attract a stable number of passengers, cargo flows, and investments that will not remain only on paper.
Why investors might still be interested
Even if the transit model between Latin America and China proves difficult to achieve, investors may seek profit in the broader development of the zone around the airport. In international practice, major airport projects often turn into commercial clusters – logistics warehouses, industrial parks, hotel complexes, and business zones. In such a scenario, the airport is an “anchor” for land and service development, and revenue does not come exclusively from aviation operations.
For Uganda, additional attractiveness factors are proximity to regional borders and the potential expansion of economic activity in the western part of the country. But precisely for that reason, the state must carefully calibrate contracts so that real estate and land development aligns with the public interest, and not only with private investment returns.
What comes next: studies, realistic projections, and the question of priorities
At a time when Entebbe is recording traffic growth and investing in new terminals, and Kabalega is entering the final stage of works and certification, Nyakyisharara arrives as a third major project in the same geographic band of Uganda’s air strategy. This does not have to mean the project is automatically wrong, but it increases the need for precise answers to several questions: what is the real market potential; will the new airport complement or compete with existing capacity; who assumes the financial risk if traffic does not materialize; and how will environmental and social sustainability be ensured.
If the government and competent institutions publish key documents in the coming months and allow a public debate grounded in data, Nyakyisharara could become a test of the maturity of Ugandan infrastructure planning. If, however, the project moves into implementation before the economic logic and the terms of the BOT arrangement are clarified, skeptics will have an additional argument that this is an overly large investment driven by a political narrative, and not by cold market analysis.
Sources:- Uganda Broadcasting Corporation – report on presidential support for the project in Nyakyisharara ( link )- New Vision (Vision Group) – details about the meeting at State House, the companies involved, and the BOT model ( link )- Uganda Civil Aviation Authority – official data on Entebbe passenger traffic and phase II expansion ( link )- SoftPower News – UCAA statements about 97% completion of Kabalega International Airport ( link )- The Aviator Africa – report on the inspection and work status at Kabalega International Airport ( link )- eTurboNews – analytical overview of the feasibility debate, investors, and the project’s political framework ( link )
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